Süper Lig · Review

Süper Lig matchweek 9 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every Süper Lig result from matchweek 9 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 26 Oct 2026, updated 27 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Süper Lig, matchweek 9 (23–26 October 2026), is complete: nine matches, 27 goals (3.00 a game), four home wins, no draws and five away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in five of the nine and both teams scored in five.

The result the model rated least likely was Kocaelispor's win in Alanyaspor v Kocaelispor (1–2), which it had at 27%; the one it rated most likely was Beşiktaş's win in Beşiktaş v Başakşehir (2–0), at 54%.

After the round, Galatasaray lead on 22 points, two points clear of Amed, with Trabzonspor third on 19. The bottom three are Gençlerbirliği S.K. (8), Samsunspor (4), Eyüpspor (3).

Match by match

Alanyaspor 1–2 KocaelisporFri 23 Oct, 18:00

Before kick-off the model had Alanyaspor 41%, the draw 32% and Kocaelispor 27%, with Alanyaspor favoured; it put Kocaelispor winning at 27%. The likeliest score had been 1-0. Expected goals were 0.47–1.54: Kocaelispor created the better chances. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 69%, did not come in. Pick published: Alanyaspor -0.5 at 1.83 — lost.

Eyüpspor 0–1 KasımpaşaSat 24 Oct, 11:30

Before kick-off the model had Eyüpspor 29%, the draw 28% and Kasımpaşa 43%, so Kasımpaşa winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.43–0.59: an even contest on chances. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 57%, came in.

Gaziantep FK 1–3 Erzurumspor FKSat 24 Oct, 14:00

Before kick-off the model had Gaziantep FK 44%, the draw 28% and Erzurumspor FK 28%, with Gaziantep FK favoured; it put Erzurumspor FK winning at 28%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.15–0.65: Gaziantep FK created the better chances. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 57%, did not come in.

Samsunspor 1–2 AmedSat 24 Oct, 17:00

Before kick-off the model had Samsunspor 27%, the draw 21% and Amed 52%, so Amed winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score, 1-2, was the one that came. Expected goals were 0.91–1.54: Amed created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 70%, came in.

Konyaspor 2–0 Gençlerbirliği S.K.Sun 25 Oct, 13:00

Before kick-off the model had Konyaspor 45%, the draw 29% and Gençlerbirliği S.K. 27%, so Konyaspor winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.84–1.16: Konyaspor created the better chances. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 58%, came in.

Göztepe 2–0 Çorum FKSun 25 Oct, 16:00

Before kick-off the model had Göztepe 38%, the draw 22% and Çorum FK 40%, with Çorum FK favoured; it put Göztepe winning at 38%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.91–0.74: Göztepe created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 72%, did not come in.

Beşiktaş 2–0 BaşakşehirMon 26 Oct, 16:00

Before kick-off the model had Beşiktaş 54%, the draw 23% and Başakşehir 22%, so Beşiktaş winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.88–0.38: Beşiktaş created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 59%, did not come in. Pick published: Under 2.5 at 2.90 — won.

Rizespor 3–4 TrabzonsporMon 26 Oct, 16:00

Before kick-off the model had Rizespor 27%, the draw 24% and Trabzonspor 49%, so Trabzonspor winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.81–2.63: Trabzonspor created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 62%, came in. Pick published: Trabzonspor +0.25 at 1.69 (free pick) — won.

Galatasaray 2–1 FenerbahçeMon 26 Oct, 18:30

Before kick-off the model had Galatasaray 39%, the draw 24% and Fenerbahçe 37%, so Galatasaray winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.27–0.31: Galatasaray created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 67%, came in. Pick published: Galatasaray -0.5 at 2.30 — won.

The numbers this season

Süper Lig has averaged 2.90 goals a game over 81 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 58% of them and both sides scoring in 46%. Home sides have won 48% of matches, 17% have been drawn and away sides have won 35%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.