Rizespor v Trabzonspor

11th3–42nd

16:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Rizespor		Trabzonspor
9	Shots	14
6	Shots on target	7
4	Corners	4
13	Fouls	14
2	Yellow cards	2
—	Red cards	—
1	Offsides	2
396	Passes	460
47%	Possession %	53%
1.81	xG	2.63

Over 1.5: 83%
Over 2.5: 61%
Over 3.5: 39%
Both score: 62%

Model pick: Trabzonspor 49%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.32 – 1.85

Advised bets

Won

Free pick

Trabzonspor +0.25

1.69Marathonbet · fair 1.51 · qualifies at 1.56+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Trabzonspor +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.69 with Marathonbet — Trabzonspor starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.

Our model puts the chance at 69% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 64%; we judge it at 66%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.52. The offered 1.69 implies only 59%, so the price is 11.5% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Rizespor 1.32, Trabzonspor 1.85.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Rizespor	26.9%	3.72	4.35 Betano	23.0%	+3.9
Match result	Draw	23.7%	4.22	3.95 Betano	25.3%	-1.6
Match result	Trabzonspor	49.4%	2.02	1.98 Betano	50.5%	-1.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	83.0%	1.20	1.20 Betano	83.3%	-0.3
Total goals	Under 1.5	17.0%	5.90	5.50 Betfair	18.2%	-1.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	61.5%	1.63	1.60 Betano	62.5%	-1.0
Total goals	Under 2.5	38.5%	2.60	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	-0.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	39.2%	2.55	2.47 Betano	40.5%	-1.3
Total goals	Under 3.5	60.8%	1.64	1.60 Betano	62.5%	-1.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	62.3%	1.60	1.53 Betano	65.4%	-3.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	37.7%	2.65	2.55 Betano	39.2%	-1.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Trabzonspor favoured against Rizespor

Our model makes Rizespor 27% to win this Süper Lig fixture, with the draw at 24% and Trabzonspor at 49%. The goal projection is 1.32 for Rizespor against 1.85 for Trabzonspor — a substantial edge to Trabzonspor on expected output. A combined 3.17 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 61% and both teams to score at 62%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 1-2 9%; 0-1 7%; 0-2 7%; 2-1 7%

This season

Season records for Rizespor and Trabzonspor
Rizespor		Trabzonspor
11	Played	11
4-2-5	W-D-L	8-1-2
1.27	Pts / game	2.27
1.18	Goals for / game	2.36
1.45	Goals against / game	0.73
55%	Over 2.5	55%
45%	BTTS	36%
27%	Clean sheets	55%
36%	Failed to score	9%
1-0-4	Home record	5-0-0
3-2-1	Away record	3-1-2
W1	Streak	W6

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Rizespor · Trabzonspor

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.8	Shots	15.6
4.8	Shots on target	6.4
4.8	Corners	4.2
1.60	Cards	1.80
10.5	Fouls	9.6
53	Possession %	51
1.58	xG	2.11
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.2	Shots	15.4
5.7	Shots on target	5.0
4.0	Corners	5.2
3.20	Cards	2.00
13.7	Fouls	15.6
47	Possession %	49
1.42	xG	1.41
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Rizespor	Metric	Trabzonspor
1.60	Goals scored	2.20 (better)
1.40	Goals conceded	0.80 (better)
1.29	Expected goals (xG)	2.17 (better)
	Big chances
4.25	Shots on target	6.00 (better)
13.50	Total shots	14.25 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.75	Corners	4.75 (better)
52.3	Possession %	54.0 (better)
418	Passes	452 (better)
	Tackles
8.75 (better)	Fouls	10.50
1.00 (better)	Offsides	2.33
	Throw-ins
2.00 (better)	Yellow cards	2.25
1.00	Red cards	0.50 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Rizespor wins: 0
Draws: 0
Trabzonspor wins: 3
Goals / game: 3.67
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Rizespor v Trabzonspor3–42026-10-26
Trabzonspor v Rizespor1–02026-03-14
Rizespor v Trabzonspor1–22025-10-18

Süper Lig table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Galatasaray	11	9	1	1	+12	28	Galatasaray won 5 of the last 5
2	Trabzonspor	11	8	1	2	+18	25	Trabzonspor won 5 of the last 5
3	Amed	11	7	2	2	+13	23	Amed won 3 of the last 5
4	Beşiktaş	11	7	1	3	+11	22	Beşiktaş won 3 of the last 5
5	Kasımpaşa	11	5	5	1	+6	20	Kasımpaşa won 3 of the last 5
6	Fenerbahçe	11	6	1	4	+19	19	Fenerbahçe won 3 of the last 5
7	Kocaelispor	11	6	1	4	+4	19	Kocaelispor won 2 of the last 5
8	Başakşehir	11	5	2	4	+2	17	Başakşehir won 3 of the last 5
9	Çorum FK	11	5	1	5	0	16	Çorum FK won 3 of the last 5
10	Göztepe	11	4	3	4	+3	15	Göztepe won 4 of the last 5
11	Rizespor	11	4	2	5	-3	14	Rizespor won 1 of the last 5
12	Erzurumspor FK	11	4	2	5	-7	14	Erzurumspor FK won 2 of the last 5
13	Alanyaspor	11	3	3	5	-9	12	Alanyaspor won 0 of the last 5
14	Gençlerbirliği S.K.	11	3	2	6	-9	11	Gençlerbirliği S.K. won 1 of the last 5
15	Konyaspor	11	2	2	7	-8	8	Konyaspor won 1 of the last 5
16	Gaziantep FK	11	2	2	7	-10	8	Gaziantep FK won 0 of the last 5
17	Samsunspor	11	2	1	8	-15	7	Samsunspor won 1 of the last 5
18	Eyüpspor	11	1	0	10	-27	3	Eyüpspor won 0 of the last 5