Beşiktaş v Başakşehir

4th2–08th

16:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Beşiktaş		Başakşehir
17	Shots	9
6	Shots on target	4
5	Corners	2
9	Fouls	17
1	Yellow cards	2
—	Red cards	—
7	Offsides	3
492	Passes	264
65%	Possession %	35%
1.88	xG	0.38

Over 1.5: 82%
Over 2.5: 59%
Over 3.5: 37%
Both score: 59%

Model pick: Beşiktaş 54%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.90 – 1.16

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Under 2.5

2.90BetVictor · fair 2.77 · qualifies at 2.88+ · 0.60u

Why this price?

Back under 2.5 goals at 2.90 with BetVictor — 2 goals or fewer in the match.

Our model puts the chance at 41% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 33%; we judge it at 36%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.77. The offered 2.90 implies only 34%, so the price is 4.5% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 0.60 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Beşiktaş 1.90, Başakşehir 1.16.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	58.9%	1.70	1.65 Betano	60.6%	-1.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	41.1%	2.43	2.30 William Hill	43.5%	-2.4
Match result	Beşiktaş	54.2%	1.84	1.39 Betano	71.9%	-17.7
Match result	Draw	23.3%	4.29	5.60 Dafabet	17.9%	+5.5
Match result	Başakşehir	22.4%	4.46	9.00 Bet365	11.1%	+11.3
Total goals	Over 1.5	81.5%	1.23	1.14 Betano	87.7%	-6.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	18.5%	5.41	7.00 BetVictor	14.3%	+4.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	59.0%	1.69	1.45 Betano	69.0%	-9.9
Total goals	Under 2.5	41.0%	2.44	2.90 BetVictor	34.5%	+6.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	36.7%	2.73	2.10 Betano	47.6%	-11.0
Total goals	Under 3.5	63.3%	1.58	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	+7.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Beşiktaş favoured against Başakşehir

Our model makes Beşiktaş 54% to win this Süper Lig fixture, with the draw at 23% and Başakşehir at 22%. The goal projection is 1.90 for Beşiktaş against 1.16 for Başakşehir — a substantial edge to Beşiktaş on expected output. A combined 3.06 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 59% and both teams to score at 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 2-1 10%; 2-0 8%; 1-0 8%; 3-1 6%

This season

Season records for Beşiktaş and Başakşehir
Beşiktaş		Başakşehir
11	Played	11
7-1-3	W-D-L	5-2-4
2.00	Pts / game	1.55
2.09	Goals for / game	1.73
1.09	Goals against / game	1.55
64%	Over 2.5	64%
45%	BTTS	55%
36%	Clean sheets	27%
18%	Failed to score	27%
6-0-0	Home record	4-1-1
1-1-3	Away record	1-1-3
W1	Streak	W2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Beşiktaş · Başakşehir

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
16.8	Shots	12.6
6.8	Shots on target	4.2
5.2	Corners	4.8
2.50	Cards	2.00
12.2	Fouls	15.2
64	Possession %	47
2.12	xG	1.55
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.3	Shots	12.8
5.5	Shots on target	4.2
3.3	Corners	4.4
4.00	Cards	2.25
16.8	Fouls	11.8
36	Possession %	53
1.19	xG	1.15
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Beşiktaş	Metric	Başakşehir
2.80 (better)	Goals scored	1.60
1.40 (better)	Goals conceded	1.80
2.48 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.62
	Big chances
6.40 (better)	Shots on target	4.20
19.00 (better)	Total shots	11.60
	Touches in opp. box
6.40 (better)	Corners	4.20
60.2 (better)	Possession %	50.4
551 (better)	Passes	436
	Tackles
9.60 (better)	Fouls	14.60
1.75	Offsides	0.80 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.40 (better)	Yellow cards	2.50
0.00 (better)	Red cards	1.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Beşiktaş wins: 3
Draws: 0
Başakşehir wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.33
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Süper Lig table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Galatasaray	11	9	1	1	+12	28	Galatasaray won 5 of the last 5
2	Trabzonspor	11	8	1	2	+18	25	Trabzonspor won 5 of the last 5
3	Amed	11	7	2	2	+13	23	Amed won 3 of the last 5
4	Beşiktaş	11	7	1	3	+11	22	Beşiktaş won 3 of the last 5
5	Kasımpaşa	11	5	5	1	+6	20	Kasımpaşa won 3 of the last 5
6	Fenerbahçe	11	6	1	4	+19	19	Fenerbahçe won 3 of the last 5
7	Kocaelispor	11	6	1	4	+4	19	Kocaelispor won 2 of the last 5
8	Başakşehir	11	5	2	4	+2	17	Başakşehir won 3 of the last 5
9	Çorum FK	11	5	1	5	0	16	Çorum FK won 3 of the last 5
10	Göztepe	11	4	3	4	+3	15	Göztepe won 4 of the last 5
11	Rizespor	11	4	2	5	-3	14	Rizespor won 1 of the last 5
12	Erzurumspor FK	11	4	2	5	-7	14	Erzurumspor FK won 2 of the last 5
13	Alanyaspor	11	3	3	5	-9	12	Alanyaspor won 0 of the last 5
14	Gençlerbirliği S.K.	11	3	2	6	-9	11	Gençlerbirliği S.K. won 1 of the last 5
15	Konyaspor	11	2	2	7	-8	8	Konyaspor won 1 of the last 5
16	Gaziantep FK	11	2	2	7	-10	8	Gaziantep FK won 0 of the last 5
17	Samsunspor	11	2	1	8	-15	7	Samsunspor won 1 of the last 5
18	Eyüpspor	11	1	0	10	-27	3	Eyüpspor won 0 of the last 5