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Süper Lig predictions: matchweek 9 (23–26 October 2026)

Every Süper Lig match in matchweek 9 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published 16 Oct 2026, updated 19 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Süper Lig, matchweek 9: nine matches, played across 23–26 October 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.

The strongest favourite is Beşiktaş, 54% to beat Başakşehir at home; the most evenly balanced game is Göztepe v Çorum FK (Göztepe 38%, draw 22%, Çorum FK 40%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Göztepe v Çorum FK, at 3.72; the tightest looks Alanyaspor v Kocaelispor, at 1.95.

Going into the round, Galatasaray lead on 19 points, two points clear of Amed, with Fenerbahçe third on 16. The bottom three are Konyaspor (5), Samsunspor (4), Eyüpspor (3).

The numbers this season

Süper Lig has averaged 2.90 goals a game over 71 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 59% of them and both sides scoring in 45%. Home sides have won 48% of matches, 20% have been drawn and away sides have won 32%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

Match by match

Alanyaspor v KocaelisporFri 23 Oct, 18:00

Our model makes Alanyaspor 41%, the draw 32% and Kocaelispor 27%. The likeliest score is 1-0 (15%), 1.95 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 31%, both teams to score 39%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 69%. Alanyaspor are 9th on 12 points from 8; Kocaelispor are 8th on 12 points from 8. Alanyaspor have won two of their last five; Kocaelispor have won two of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Alanyaspor wins, draws and Kocaelispor wins.

Eyüpspor v KasımpaşaSat 24 Oct, 11:30

Our model makes Eyüpspor 29%, the draw 28% and Kasımpaşa 43%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.42 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 57%. Eyüpspor are 18th on 3 points from 8; Kasımpaşa are 7th on 13 points from 8. Eyüpspor have lost all of their last five; Kasımpaşa have won two of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Eyüpspor wins, draws and Kasımpaşa wins.

Gaziantep FK v Erzurumspor FKSat 24 Oct, 14:00

Our model makes Gaziantep FK 44%, the draw 28% and Erzurumspor FK 28%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.42 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 57%. Gaziantep FK are 14th on 8 points from 8; Erzurumspor FK are 11th on 11 points from 8. Gaziantep FK have won one of their last five; Erzurumspor FK have won three of their last five.

Samsunspor v AmedSat 24 Oct, 17:00

Our model makes Samsunspor 27%, the draw 21% and Amed 52%. The likeliest score is 1-2 (9%), 3.70 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 70%. The headline call is both teams to score at 70%. Samsunspor are 17th on 4 points from 8; Amed are 2nd on 17 points from 8. Samsunspor have lost all of their last five; Amed are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws).

Konyaspor v Gençlerbirliği S.K.Sun 25 Oct, 13:00

Our model makes Konyaspor 45%, the draw 29% and Gençlerbirliği S.K. 27%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.35 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 47%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 58%. Konyaspor are 16th on 5 points from 8; Gençlerbirliği S.K. are 15th on 8 points from 8. Konyaspor have won one of their last five; Gençlerbirliği S.K. are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats). Konyaspor have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Göztepe v Çorum FKSun 25 Oct, 16:00

Our model makes Göztepe 38%, the draw 22% and Çorum FK 40%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (9%), 3.72 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 72%. The headline call is both teams to score at 72%. Göztepe are 13th on 9 points from 8; Çorum FK are 6th on 13 points from 8. Göztepe have won two of their last five; Çorum FK have won four of their last five.

Beşiktaş v BaşakşehirMon 26 Oct, 16:00

Our model makes Beşiktaş 54%, the draw 23% and Başakşehir 22%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.06 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 59%. The headline call is both teams to score at 59%. Beşiktaş are 4th on 15 points from 7; Başakşehir are 10th on 11 points from 8. Beşiktaş have won four of their last five; Başakşehir have won two of their last five. Beşiktaş have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Rizespor v TrabzonsporMon 26 Oct, 16:00

Our model makes Rizespor 27%, the draw 24% and Trabzonspor 49%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.17 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%. The headline call is both teams to score at 62%. Rizespor are 12th on 10 points from 8; Trabzonspor are 5th on 13 points from 7. Rizespor have won one of their last five; Trabzonspor have won three of their last five. Trabzonspor have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Galatasaray v FenerbahçeMon 26 Oct, 18:30

Our model makes Galatasaray 39%, the draw 24% and Fenerbahçe 37%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.38 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 67%. The headline call is both teams to score at 67%. Galatasaray are 1st on 19 points from 8; Fenerbahçe are 3rd on 16 points from 8. Galatasaray have won four of their last five; Fenerbahçe have won three of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

The model has published one pick on this round so far, where the best available price stands clear of its own probability and the market's consensus together. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.