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Süper Lig predictions: matchweek 11 (6–8 November 2026)

Every Süper Lig match in matchweek 11 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published 30 Oct 2026, updated 31 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Süper Lig, matchweek 11: nine matches, played across 6–8 November 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.

The strongest favourite is Beşiktaş, 69% to beat Gençlerbirliği S.K. at home; the most evenly balanced game is Göztepe v Başakşehir (Göztepe 40%, draw 25%, Başakşehir 35%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Galatasaray v Amed, at 3.69; the tightest looks Eyüpspor v Kocaelispor, at 2.10.

Going into the round, Galatasaray lead on 25 points, five points clear of Amed, with Trabzonspor third on 19. The bottom three are Gençlerbirliği S.K. (8), Samsunspor (4), Eyüpspor (3).

The numbers this season

Süper Lig has averaged 2.89 goals a game over 84 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 58% of them and both sides scoring in 45%. Home sides have won 46% of matches, 18% have been drawn and away sides have won 36%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

Match by match

Gaziantep FK v KasımpaşaFri 6 Nov, 17:00

Our model makes Gaziantep FK 34%, the draw 27% and Kasımpaşa 39%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.66 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%. The headline call is Kasımpaşa to win at 39%. Gaziantep FK are 14th on 8 points from 9; Kasımpaşa are 7th on 16 points from 9. Gaziantep FK are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats); Kasımpaşa have won three of their last five. Gaziantep FK have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Eyüpspor v KocaelisporSat 7 Nov, 10:30

Our model makes Eyüpspor 25%, the draw 30% and Kocaelispor 45%. The likeliest score is 0-1 (15%), 2.10 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 42%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 65%. Eyüpspor are 18th on 3 points from 9; Kocaelispor are 8th on 16 points from 10. Eyüpspor have lost all of their last five; Kocaelispor have won two of their last five. Kocaelispor have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Samsunspor v KonyasporSat 7 Nov, 13:00

Our model makes Samsunspor 40%, the draw 27% and Konyaspor 32%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.62 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 54%. The headline call is Samsunspor to win at 40%. Samsunspor are 17th on 4 points from 9; Konyaspor are 15th on 8 points from 10. Samsunspor have lost all of their last five; Konyaspor have won one of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Galatasaray v AmedSat 7 Nov, 16:00

Our model makes Galatasaray 48%, the draw 22% and Amed 30%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (9%), 3.69 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 71%. The headline call is both teams to score at 71%. Galatasaray are 1st on 25 points from 10; Amed are 2nd on 20 points from 9. Galatasaray have won four of their last five; Amed are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw).

Göztepe v BaşakşehirSat 7 Nov, 16:00

Our model makes Göztepe 40%, the draw 25% and Başakşehir 35%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.99 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is both teams to score at 61%. Göztepe are 10th on 12 points from 9; Başakşehir are 12th on 11 points from 9. Göztepe are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws); Başakşehir have won two of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Göztepe wins, draws and Başakşehir wins.

Rizespor v Erzurumspor FKSun 8 Nov, 10:30

Our model makes Rizespor 43%, the draw 27% and Erzurumspor FK 31%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.71 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%. The headline call is both teams to score at 55%. Rizespor are 13th on 11 points from 10; Erzurumspor FK are 9th on 14 points from 10. Rizespor are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats); Erzurumspor FK have won three of their last five.

Çorum FK v FenerbahçeSun 8 Nov, 13:00

Our model makes Çorum FK 30%, the draw 22% and Fenerbahçe 47%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (9%), 3.60 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 69%. The headline call is both teams to score at 69%. Çorum FK are 6th on 16 points from 10; Fenerbahçe are 5th on 16 points from 9. Çorum FK have won three of their last five; Fenerbahçe have won three of their last five.

Alanyaspor v TrabzonsporSun 8 Nov, 15:30

Our model makes Alanyaspor 26%, the draw 25% and Trabzonspor 50%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.92 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%. The headline call is Trabzonspor to win at 50%. Alanyaspor are 11th on 12 points from 9; Trabzonspor are 3rd on 19 points from 9. Alanyaspor have won one of their last five; Trabzonspor have won four of their last five. Two of the sides' last two meetings were drawn.

Beşiktaş v Gençlerbirliği S.K.Sun 8 Nov, 18:00

Our model makes Beşiktaş 69%, the draw 19% and Gençlerbirliği S.K. 12%. The likeliest score is 2-0 (12%), 3.00 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 49%. The headline call is Beşiktaş to win at 69%. Beşiktaş are 4th on 18 points from 9; Gençlerbirliği S.K. are 16th on 8 points from 9. Beşiktaş have won three of their last five; Gençlerbirliği S.K. are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats). The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Beşiktaş wins, draws and Gençlerbirliği S.K. wins.

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

A pick is published only where the best available price stands clear of the model's probability and the market's consensus together; most fixtures get none. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.