Samsunspor v Konyaspor

17th1–015th

13:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Samsunspor		Konyaspor
6	Shots	7
3	Shots on target	1
2	Corners	3
12	Fouls	13
3	Yellow cards	2
—	Red cards	—
1	Offsides	4
407	Passes	443
47%	Possession %	53%
0.70	xG	0.82

Over 1.5: 74%
Over 2.5: 49%
Over 3.5: 27%
Both score: 54%

Model pick: Samsunspor 40%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.40 – 1.23

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Samsunspor	40.3%	2.48	2.40 Betano	41.7%	-1.4
Match result	Draw	27.4%	3.65	3.55 Betano	28.2%	-0.8
Match result	Konyaspor	32.3%	3.09	3.20 Bet365	31.3%	+1.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	74.3%	1.34	1.31 Betano	76.3%	-2.0
Total goals	Over 2.5	48.8%	2.05	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	-2.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	25.7%	3.90	3.75 Bet365	26.7%	-1.0
Total goals	Under 2.5	51.2%	1.95	1.90 Bet365	52.6%	-1.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	26.9%	3.71	3.40 Bet365	29.4%	-2.5
Total goals	Under 3.5	73.1%	1.37	1.35 Betano	74.1%	-1.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	53.8%	1.86	1.75 William Hill	57.1%	-3.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	46.2%	2.17	2.10 Bet365	47.6%	-1.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Samsunspor favoured against Konyaspor

Our model makes Samsunspor 40% to win this Süper Lig fixture, with the draw at 27% and Konyaspor at 32%. The goal projection is 1.40 for Samsunspor against 1.23 for Konyaspor — a slight edge to Samsunspor on expected output. A combined 2.62 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 49% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 1-0 10%; 2-1 9%; 0-1 8%; 0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Samsunspor and Konyaspor
Samsunspor		Konyaspor
11	Played	11
2-1-8	W-D-L	2-2-7
0.64	Pts / game	0.73
1.00	Goals for / game	0.55
2.36	Goals against / game	1.27
55%	Over 2.5	27%
45%	BTTS	18%
18%	Clean sheets	36%
36%	Failed to score	64%
1-1-4	Home record	2-1-3
1-0-4	Away record	0-1-4
W1	Streak	L2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Samsunspor · Konyaspor

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.3	Shots	9.0
3.7	Shots on target	2.6
4.3	Corners	4.0
3.17	Cards	2.00
16.0	Fouls	11.0
50	Possession %	51
0.92	xG	0.93
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.2	Shots	9.8
5.0	Shots on target	3.4
5.7	Corners	5.2
2.83	Cards	2.00
11.8	Fouls	14.0
50	Possession %	49
1.76	xG	1.45
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Samsunspor	Metric	Konyaspor
0.60	Goals scored	0.80 (better)
3.00	Goals conceded	1.40 (better)
1.08 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.99
	Big chances
3.80 (better)	Shots on target	3.00
14.20 (better)	Total shots	8.50
	Touches in opp. box
6.00 (better)	Corners	4.25
54.4 (better)	Possession %	51.3
495 (better)	Passes	349
	Tackles
16.60	Fouls	9.75 (better)
1.80 (better)	Offsides	2.00
	Throw-ins
2.20	Yellow cards	1.67 (better)
0.50	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Samsunspor wins: 2
Draws: 1
Konyaspor wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Samsunspor v Konyaspor1–02026-11-07
Samsunspor v Konyaspor2–22026-04-05
Konyaspor v Samsunspor1–32025-11-02

Süper Lig table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Galatasaray	11	9	1	1	+12	28	Galatasaray won 5 of the last 5
2	Trabzonspor	11	8	1	2	+18	25	Trabzonspor won 5 of the last 5
3	Amed	11	7	2	2	+13	23	Amed won 3 of the last 5
4	Beşiktaş	11	7	1	3	+11	22	Beşiktaş won 3 of the last 5
5	Kasımpaşa	11	5	5	1	+6	20	Kasımpaşa won 3 of the last 5
6	Fenerbahçe	11	6	1	4	+19	19	Fenerbahçe won 3 of the last 5
7	Kocaelispor	11	6	1	4	+4	19	Kocaelispor won 2 of the last 5
8	Başakşehir	11	5	2	4	+2	17	Başakşehir won 3 of the last 5
9	Çorum FK	11	5	1	5	0	16	Çorum FK won 3 of the last 5
10	Göztepe	11	4	3	4	+3	15	Göztepe won 4 of the last 5
11	Rizespor	11	4	2	5	-3	14	Rizespor won 1 of the last 5
12	Erzurumspor FK	11	4	2	5	-7	14	Erzurumspor FK won 2 of the last 5
13	Alanyaspor	11	3	3	5	-9	12	Alanyaspor won 0 of the last 5
14	Gençlerbirliği S.K.	11	3	2	6	-9	11	Gençlerbirliği S.K. won 1 of the last 5
15	Konyaspor	11	2	2	7	-8	8	Konyaspor won 1 of the last 5
16	Gaziantep FK	11	2	2	7	-10	8	Gaziantep FK won 0 of the last 5
17	Samsunspor	11	2	1	8	-15	7	Samsunspor won 1 of the last 5
18	Eyüpspor	11	1	0	10	-27	3	Eyüpspor won 0 of the last 5