Göztepe v Başakşehir

10th1–28th

16:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Göztepe		Başakşehir
17	Shots	15
4	Shots on target	5
7	Corners	7
14	Fouls	8
2	Yellow cards	2
—	Red cards	—
3	Offsides	1
353	Passes	339
51%	Possession %	49%
1.27	xG	1.35

Over 1.5: 81%
Over 2.5: 58%
Over 3.5: 35%
Both score: 61%

Model pick: Göztepe 40%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.55 – 1.44

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Göztepe -0.5

2.32Betano · fair 2.08 · qualifies at 2.14+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Göztepe -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.32 with Betano — Göztepe must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 40% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 54%; we judge it at 48%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.08. The offered 2.32 implies only 43%, so the price is 11.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Göztepe 1.55, Başakşehir 1.44.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Göztepe	39.6%	2.53	2.09 Dafabet	47.8%	-8.3
Match result	Draw	25.4%	3.93	3.75 Betano	26.7%	-1.2
Match result	Başakşehir	35.0%	2.86	3.65 Dafabet	27.4%	+7.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	80.5%	1.24	1.23 Betano	81.3%	-0.8
Total goals	Under 1.5	19.5%	5.14	5.00 Bet365	20.0%	-0.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	57.5%	1.74	1.70 Betano	58.8%	-1.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	42.5%	2.35	2.22 Betano	45.0%	-2.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	35.1%	2.85	2.75 BetVictor	36.4%	-1.3
Total goals	Under 3.5	64.9%	1.54	1.50 Betano	66.7%	-1.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	60.7%	1.65	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	-1.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	39.3%	2.55	2.45 Betfair	40.8%	-1.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Göztepe v Başakşehir: too close to call

Our model makes Göztepe 40% to win this Süper Lig fixture, with the draw at 25% and Başakşehir at 35%. The goal projection is 1.55 for Göztepe against 1.44 for Başakşehir — a slight edge to Göztepe on expected output. A combined 2.99 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 58% and both teams to score at 61%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 2-1 9%; 1-2 8%; 1-0 7%; 0-1 7%

This season

Season records for Göztepe and Başakşehir
Göztepe		Başakşehir
11	Played	11
4-3-4	W-D-L	5-2-4
1.36	Pts / game	1.55
2.00	Goals for / game	1.73
1.73	Goals against / game	1.55
82%	Over 2.5	64%
73%	BTTS	55%
18%	Clean sheets	27%
9%	Failed to score	27%
1-1-3	Home record	4-1-1
3-2-1	Away record	1-1-3
L1	Streak	W2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Göztepe · Başakşehir

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
16.0	Shots	12.6
6.2	Shots on target	4.2
4.8	Corners	4.8
2.67	Cards	2.00
18.5	Fouls	15.2
41	Possession %	47
1.88	xG	1.55
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.8	Shots	12.8
4.7	Shots on target	4.2
4.3	Corners	4.4
2.67	Cards	2.25
9.2	Fouls	11.8
59	Possession %	53
1.24	xG	1.15
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Göztepe	Metric	Başakşehir
2.40 (better)	Goals scored	1.20
1.00 (better)	Goals conceded	1.60
2.11 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.30
	Big chances
6.20 (better)	Shots on target	4.40
16.20 (better)	Total shots	11.00
	Touches in opp. box
3.40	Corners	3.40
39.2	Possession %	47.8 (better)
287	Passes	409 (better)
	Tackles
17.60	Fouls	15.20 (better)
2.80	Offsides	1.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.40 (better)	Yellow cards	2.50
0.00	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Göztepe wins: 1
Draws: 0
Başakşehir wins: 2
Goals / game: 2.33
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Göztepe v Başakşehir1–22026-11-07
Başakşehir v Göztepe2–12026-03-07
Göztepe v Başakşehir1–02025-10-05

Süper Lig table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Galatasaray	11	9	1	1	+12	28	Galatasaray won 5 of the last 5
2	Trabzonspor	11	8	1	2	+18	25	Trabzonspor won 5 of the last 5
3	Amed	11	7	2	2	+13	23	Amed won 3 of the last 5
4	Beşiktaş	11	7	1	3	+11	22	Beşiktaş won 3 of the last 5
5	Kasımpaşa	11	5	5	1	+6	20	Kasımpaşa won 3 of the last 5
6	Fenerbahçe	11	6	1	4	+19	19	Fenerbahçe won 3 of the last 5
7	Kocaelispor	11	6	1	4	+4	19	Kocaelispor won 2 of the last 5
8	Başakşehir	11	5	2	4	+2	17	Başakşehir won 3 of the last 5
9	Çorum FK	11	5	1	5	0	16	Çorum FK won 3 of the last 5
10	Göztepe	11	4	3	4	+3	15	Göztepe won 4 of the last 5
11	Rizespor	11	4	2	5	-3	14	Rizespor won 1 of the last 5
12	Erzurumspor FK	11	4	2	5	-7	14	Erzurumspor FK won 2 of the last 5
13	Alanyaspor	11	3	3	5	-9	12	Alanyaspor won 0 of the last 5
14	Gençlerbirliği S.K.	11	3	2	6	-9	11	Gençlerbirliği S.K. won 1 of the last 5
15	Konyaspor	11	2	2	7	-8	8	Konyaspor won 1 of the last 5
16	Gaziantep FK	11	2	2	7	-10	8	Gaziantep FK won 0 of the last 5
17	Samsunspor	11	2	1	8	-15	7	Samsunspor won 1 of the last 5
18	Eyüpspor	11	1	0	10	-27	3	Eyüpspor won 0 of the last 5