Galatasaray v Amed

1st4–33rd

16:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Galatasaray		Amed
17	Shots	14
6	Shots on target	5
3	Corners	6
8	Fouls	11
0	Yellow cards	3
—	Red cards	—
3	Offsides	8
489	Passes	370
56%	Possession %	44%
1.47	xG	1.27

Over 1.5: 89%
Over 2.5: 71%
Over 3.5: 50%
Both score: 71%

Model pick: Galatasaray 48%
Likely score: 1-1 9%
Expected goals: 2.07 – 1.62

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Galatasaray	47.9%	2.09	1.45 Betano	69.0%	-21.1
Match result	Draw	22.0%	4.55	5.30 Betano	18.9%	+3.1
Match result	Amed	30.2%	3.32	7.00 Bet365	14.3%	+15.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	88.7%	1.13	1.15 Betano	87.0%	+1.8
Total goals	Under 1.5	11.3%	8.86	6.50 Betfair	15.4%	-4.1
Total goals	Over 2.5	71.3%	1.40	1.47 Betano	68.0%	+3.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	28.7%	3.48	2.88 Betfair	34.7%	-6.0
Total goals	Over 3.5	50.4%	1.99	2.12 Betano	47.2%	+3.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	49.6%	2.02	1.75 Betano	57.1%	-7.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	70.5%	1.42	1.65 Betfair	60.6%	+9.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	29.5%	3.39	2.30 Betfair	43.5%	-14.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Galatasaray favoured against Amed

Our model makes Galatasaray 48% to win this Süper Lig fixture, with the draw at 22% and Amed at 30%. The goal projection is 2.07 for Galatasaray against 1.62 for Amed — a clear edge to Galatasaray on expected output. A combined 3.69 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 71% and both teams to score at 71%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 9%; 2-1 9%; 2-2 7%; 1-2 7%; 3-1 6%

This season

Season records for Galatasaray and Amed
Galatasaray		Amed
11	Played	11
9-1-1	W-D-L	7-2-2
2.55	Pts / game	2.09
2.45	Goals for / game	2.55
1.36	Goals against / game	1.36
82%	Over 2.5	82%
55%	BTTS	64%
36%	Clean sheets	27%
9%	Failed to score	9%
5-1-0	Home record	6-0-0
4-0-1	Away record	1-2-2
W5	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Galatasaray · Amed

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
19.8	Shots	16.3
7.4	Shots on target	5.7
8.0	Corners	5.3
2.20	Cards	4.67
10.2	Fouls	16.3
61	Possession %	48
2.12	xG	2.19
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.0	Shots	11.8
3.6	Shots on target	4.0
4.6	Corners	4.2
2.80	Cards	3.33
13.6	Fouls	9.8
39	Possession %	53
0.91	xG	1.03
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Galatasaray	Metric	Amed
2.40	Goals scored	2.60 (better)
1.40	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
1.55	Expected goals (xG)	2.25 (better)
	Big chances
5.20	Shots on target	5.80 (better)
13.40	Total shots	17.20 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
6.00 (better)	Corners	4.40
50.8 (better)	Possession %	46.2
375	Passes	377 (better)
	Tackles
9.20 (better)	Fouls	15.60
3.60	Offsides	2.20 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.60 (better)	Yellow cards	4.00
0.50 (better)	Red cards	1.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Galatasaray wins: 1
Draws: 0
Amed wins: 0
Goals / game: 7.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Galatasaray v Amed4–32026-11-07

Süper Lig table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Galatasaray	11	9	1	1	+12	28	Galatasaray won 5 of the last 5
2	Trabzonspor	11	8	1	2	+18	25	Trabzonspor won 5 of the last 5
3	Amed	11	7	2	2	+13	23	Amed won 3 of the last 5
4	Beşiktaş	11	7	1	3	+11	22	Beşiktaş won 3 of the last 5
5	Kasımpaşa	11	5	5	1	+6	20	Kasımpaşa won 3 of the last 5
6	Fenerbahçe	11	6	1	4	+19	19	Fenerbahçe won 3 of the last 5
7	Kocaelispor	11	6	1	4	+4	19	Kocaelispor won 2 of the last 5
8	Başakşehir	11	5	2	4	+2	17	Başakşehir won 3 of the last 5
9	Çorum FK	11	5	1	5	0	16	Çorum FK won 3 of the last 5
10	Göztepe	11	4	3	4	+3	15	Göztepe won 4 of the last 5
11	Rizespor	11	4	2	5	-3	14	Rizespor won 1 of the last 5
12	Erzurumspor FK	11	4	2	5	-7	14	Erzurumspor FK won 2 of the last 5
13	Alanyaspor	11	3	3	5	-9	12	Alanyaspor won 0 of the last 5
14	Gençlerbirliği S.K.	11	3	2	6	-9	11	Gençlerbirliği S.K. won 1 of the last 5
15	Konyaspor	11	2	2	7	-8	8	Konyaspor won 1 of the last 5
16	Gaziantep FK	11	2	2	7	-10	8	Gaziantep FK won 0 of the last 5
17	Samsunspor	11	2	1	8	-15	7	Samsunspor won 1 of the last 5
18	Eyüpspor	11	1	0	10	-27	3	Eyüpspor won 0 of the last 5