Beşiktaş won 3 of the last 5WDWLW4th3–0Gençlerbirliği S.K. won 1 of the last 5LWLLD14th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Beşiktaş
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
20
Shots
3
10
Shots on target
1
4
Corners
1
14
Fouls
15
3
Yellow cards
3
0
Red cards
1
4
Offsides
3
579
Passes
259
69%
Possession %
31%
4.09
xG
0.18
69%
19%
1 · BeşiktaşXGençlerbirliği S.K. · 2
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
35%
Both score
49%
Model pick
Beşiktaş 69%
Likely score
2-0 12%
Expected goals
2.20 – 0.79
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Beşiktaş
69.1%
1.45
1.22 Bet365
82.0%
-12.8
Match result
Draw
19.2%
5.20
8.00 Betfair
12.5%
+6.7
Match result
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
11.6%
8.59
17.50 Betano
5.7%
+5.9
Total goals
Over 1.5
80.5%
1.24
1.11 Betano
90.1%
-9.6
Total goals
Under 1.5
19.5%
5.13
8.00 Bet365
12.5%
+7.0
Total goals
Over 2.5
57.6%
1.74
1.36 Bet365
73.5%
-15.9
Total goals
Under 2.5
42.4%
2.36
3.50 Bet365
28.6%
+13.8
Total goals
Over 3.5
35.2%
2.84
1.87 Betfair
53.5%
-18.2
Total goals
Under 3.5
64.8%
1.54
2.00 Betano
50.0%
+14.8
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
49.2%
2.03
1.91 Betfair
52.4%
-3.2
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
50.8%
1.97
2.00 Betfair
50.0%
+0.8
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Beşiktaş favoured against Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Our model makes Beşiktaş 69% to win this Süper Lig fixture, with the draw at 19% and Gençlerbirliği S.K. at 12%. The goal projection is 2.20 for Beşiktaş against 0.79 for Gençlerbirliği S.K. — a commanding edge to Beşiktaş on expected output. A combined 3.00 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 58% and both teams to score at 49%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Beşiktaş is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 31% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
2-0 12%
1-0 11%
2-1 10%
1-1 9%
3-0 9%
This season
Season records for Beşiktaş and Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Beşiktaş
Metric
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.80 (better)
Goals scored
1.40
1.40
Goals conceded
1.20 (better)
1.92 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.13
—
Big chances *
—
5.20 (better)
Shots on target
4.00
15.20 (better)
Total shots
12.33
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
4.20
Corners
6.00 (better)
58.0 (better)
Possession %
42.3
478 (better)
Passes
285
—
Tackles
—
11.20 (better)
Fouls
15.00
3.50
Offsides
1.67 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.80 (better)
Yellow cards
2.33
0.50
Red cards
—
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Beşiktaş v 
Gençlerbirliği S.K.