Gaziantep FK v Kasımpaşa

16th0–25th

17:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Gaziantep FK		Kasımpaşa
16	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	5
7	Corners	2
10	Fouls	15
1	Yellow cards	2
—	Red cards	—
—	Offsides	—
526	Passes	334
62%	Possession %	38%
0.88	xG	1.96

Over 1.5: 75%
Over 2.5: 50%
Over 3.5: 28%
Both score: 55%

Model pick: Kasımpaşa 39%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.27 – 1.39

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Gaziantep FK -0.5

2.50Betano · fair 2.24 · qualifies at 2.31+ · 1.93u

Why this price?

Back Gaziantep FK -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.50 with Betano — Gaziantep FK must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 34% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 52%; we judge it at 45%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.24. The offered 2.50 implies only 40%, so the price is 11.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.93 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Gaziantep FK 1.27, Kasımpaşa 1.39.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Gaziantep FK	33.6%	2.97	2.60 Dafabet	38.5%	-4.8
Match result	Draw	27.3%	3.67	3.50 BetVictor	28.6%	-1.3
Match result	Kasımpaşa	39.1%	2.56	2.70 Dafabet	37.0%	+2.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	74.9%	1.33	1.29 Betfair	77.5%	-2.6
Total goals	Under 1.5	25.1%	3.99	4.33 Betfair	23.1%	+2.0
Total goals	Over 2.5	49.5%	2.02	1.88 Betano	53.2%	-3.7
Total goals	Under 2.5	50.5%	1.98	2.15 Betfair	46.5%	+4.0
Total goals	Over 3.5	27.6%	3.62	3.25 Bet365	30.8%	-3.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	72.4%	1.38	1.44 Betano	69.4%	+3.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	54.5%	1.83	1.70 Betano	58.8%	-4.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	45.5%	2.20	2.45 Betfair	40.8%	+4.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Gaziantep FK v Kasımpaşa: too close to call

Our model makes Gaziantep FK 34% to win this Süper Lig fixture, with the draw at 27% and Kasımpaşa at 39%. The goal projection is 1.27 for Gaziantep FK against 1.39 for Kasımpaşa — a slight edge to Kasımpaşa on expected output. A combined 2.66 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 50% and both teams to score at 55%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 0-1 9%; 1-2 9%; 1-0 8%; 2-1 8%

This season

Season records for Gaziantep FK and Kasımpaşa
Gaziantep FK		Kasımpaşa
11	Played	11
2-2-7	W-D-L	5-5-1
0.73	Pts / game	1.82
0.82	Goals for / game	1.55
1.73	Goals against / game	1.00
45%	Over 2.5	45%
45%	BTTS	64%
18%	Clean sheets	36%
45%	Failed to score	9%
0-2-4	Home record	1-4-0
2-0-3	Away record	4-1-1
L6	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Gaziantep FK · Kasımpaşa

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.8	Shots	13.8
4.4	Shots on target	5.4
5.6	Corners	4.4
2.00	Cards	2.00
10.6	Fouls	16.8
54	Possession %	43
1.04	xG	1.37
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.0	Shots	14.6
5.2	Shots on target	5.4
3.4	Corners	5.8
1.80	Cards	2.20
13.2	Fouls	13.8
46	Possession %	57
1.59	xG	1.22
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Gaziantep FK	Metric	Kasımpaşa
1.20	Goals scored	2.20 (better)
2.00	Goals conceded	1.20 (better)
1.26 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.16
	Big chances
4.00	Shots on target	5.33 (better)
15.25 (better)	Total shots	14.00
	Touches in opp. box
5.25 (better)	Corners	5.00
54.0 (better)	Possession %	45.0
497 (better)	Passes	356
	Tackles
10.75 (better)	Fouls	16.33
2.00	Offsides	1.67 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.50	Yellow cards	2.33 (better)
	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Gaziantep FK wins: 2
Draws: 0
Kasımpaşa wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.33
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Süper Lig table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Galatasaray	11	9	1	1	+12	28	Galatasaray won 5 of the last 5
2	Trabzonspor	11	8	1	2	+18	25	Trabzonspor won 5 of the last 5
3	Amed	11	7	2	2	+13	23	Amed won 3 of the last 5
4	Beşiktaş	11	7	1	3	+11	22	Beşiktaş won 3 of the last 5
5	Kasımpaşa	11	5	5	1	+6	20	Kasımpaşa won 3 of the last 5
6	Fenerbahçe	11	6	1	4	+19	19	Fenerbahçe won 3 of the last 5
7	Kocaelispor	11	6	1	4	+4	19	Kocaelispor won 2 of the last 5
8	Başakşehir	11	5	2	4	+2	17	Başakşehir won 3 of the last 5
9	Çorum FK	11	5	1	5	0	16	Çorum FK won 3 of the last 5
10	Göztepe	11	4	3	4	+3	15	Göztepe won 4 of the last 5
11	Rizespor	11	4	2	5	-3	14	Rizespor won 1 of the last 5
12	Erzurumspor FK	11	4	2	5	-7	14	Erzurumspor FK won 2 of the last 5
13	Alanyaspor	11	3	3	5	-9	12	Alanyaspor won 0 of the last 5
14	Gençlerbirliği S.K.	11	3	2	6	-9	11	Gençlerbirliği S.K. won 1 of the last 5
15	Konyaspor	11	2	2	7	-8	8	Konyaspor won 1 of the last 5
16	Gaziantep FK	11	2	2	7	-10	8	Gaziantep FK won 0 of the last 5
17	Samsunspor	11	2	1	8	-15	7	Samsunspor won 1 of the last 5
18	Eyüpspor	11	1	0	10	-27	3	Eyüpspor won 0 of the last 5