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Süper Lig predictions: matchweek 10 (30 October – 2 November 2026)

Every Süper Lig match in matchweek 10 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published 23 Oct 2026, updated 26 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Süper Lig, matchweek 10: nine matches, played across 30 October – 2 November 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.

The strongest favourite is Amed, 78% to beat Eyüpspor at home; the most evenly balanced game is Gençlerbirliği S.K. v Alanyaspor (Gençlerbirliği S.K. 34%, draw 29%, Alanyaspor 37%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Amed v Eyüpspor, at 3.68; the tightest looks Kocaelispor v Rizespor, at 2.25.

Going into the round, Amed lead on 20 points, one point clear of Galatasaray, with Fenerbahçe third on 16. The bottom three are Gençlerbirliği S.K. (8), Samsunspor (4), Eyüpspor (3).

The numbers this season

Süper Lig has averaged 2.86 goals a game over 78 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 58% of them and both sides scoring in 45%. Home sides have won 47% of matches, 18% have been drawn and away sides have won 35%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

Match by match

Konyaspor v GalatasarayFri 30 Oct, 17:00

Our model makes Konyaspor 24%, the draw 25% and Galatasaray 51%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.84 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 56%. The headline call is Galatasaray to win at 51%. Konyaspor are 14th on 8 points from 9; Galatasaray are 2nd on 19 points from 8. Konyaspor have won two of their last five; Galatasaray have won four of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Konyaspor wins, draws and Galatasaray wins.

Erzurumspor FK v Çorum FKSat 31 Oct, 10:30

Our model makes Erzurumspor FK 28%, the draw 25% and Çorum FK 47%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.97 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%. The headline call is both teams to score at 59%. Erzurumspor FK are 8th on 14 points from 9; Çorum FK are 9th on 13 points from 9. Erzurumspor FK have won three of their last five; Çorum FK have won three of their last five.

Kocaelispor v RizesporSat 31 Oct, 13:00

Our model makes Kocaelispor 41%, the draw 30% and Rizespor 29%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.25 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 46%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 61%. Kocaelispor are 7th on 15 points from 9; Rizespor are 13th on 10 points from 8. Kocaelispor have won two of their last five; Rizespor have won one of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Fenerbahçe v GöztepeSat 31 Oct, 16:00

Our model makes Fenerbahçe 65%, the draw 19% and Göztepe 16%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (9%), 3.56 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 63%. The headline call is over 3.5 goals at 48%. Fenerbahçe are 3rd on 16 points from 8; Göztepe are 10th on 12 points from 9. Fenerbahçe have won three of their last five; Göztepe are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws). Two of the sides' last two meetings were drawn.

Amed v EyüpsporSun 1 Nov, 10:30

Our model makes Amed 78%, the draw 14% and Eyüpspor 8%. The likeliest score is 2-0 (10%), 3.68 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 54%. The headline call is Amed to win at 78%. Amed are 1st on 20 points from 9; Eyüpspor are 18th on 3 points from 9. Amed are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw); Eyüpspor have lost all of their last five.

Başakşehir v SamsunsporSun 1 Nov, 13:00

Our model makes Başakşehir 59%, the draw 22% and Samsunspor 19%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.22 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 60%. The headline call is both teams to score at 60%. Başakşehir are 12th on 11 points from 8; Samsunspor are 17th on 4 points from 9. Başakşehir have won two of their last five; Samsunspor have lost all of their last five. Başakşehir have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Trabzonspor v Gaziantep FKSun 1 Nov, 13:00

Our model makes Trabzonspor 69%, the draw 18% and Gaziantep FK 13%. The likeliest score is 2-0 (10%), 3.33 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 56%. The headline call is Trabzonspor to win at 69%. Trabzonspor are 4th on 16 points from 8; Gaziantep FK are 15th on 8 points from 9. Trabzonspor have won four of their last five; Gaziantep FK are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats). One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Kasımpaşa v BeşiktaşSun 1 Nov, 16:00

Our model makes Kasımpaşa 27%, the draw 26% and Beşiktaş 47%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.71 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%. The headline call is Beşiktaş to win at 47%. Kasımpaşa are 5th on 16 points from 9; Beşiktaş are 6th on 15 points from 8. Kasımpaşa have won three of their last five; Beşiktaş have won three of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Gençlerbirliği S.K. v AlanyasporMon 2 Nov, 17:00

Our model makes Gençlerbirliği S.K. 34%, the draw 29% and Alanyaspor 37%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.39 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 57%. Gençlerbirliği S.K. are 16th on 8 points from 9; Alanyaspor are 11th on 12 points from 9. Gençlerbirliği S.K. are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats); Alanyaspor have won one of their last five. Two of the sides' last two meetings were drawn.

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

The model has published one pick on this round so far, where the best available price stands clear of its own probability and the market's consensus together. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.