Fenerbahçe v Göztepe

6th1–210th

16:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Fenerbahçe		Göztepe
18	Shots	12
6	Shots on target	6
5	Corners	8
8	Fouls	19
2	Yellow cards	4
—	Red cards	—
1	Offsides	1
530	Passes	258
66%	Possession %	34%
1.66	xG	1.20

Over 1.5: 87%
Over 2.5: 69%
Over 3.5: 48%
Both score: 63%

Model pick: Fenerbahçe 65%
Likely score: 2-1 9%
Expected goals: 2.41 – 1.15

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	37.5%	2.67	2.15 Betfair	46.5%	-9.1
Match result	Fenerbahçe	64.8%	1.54	1.40 Betano	71.4%	-6.6
Match result	Draw	19.0%	5.27	5.50 Betano	18.2%	+0.8
Match result	Göztepe	16.2%	6.18	8.20 Dafabet	12.2%	+4.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	87.4%	1.14	1.17 Bet365	85.5%	+1.9
Total goals	Under 1.5	12.6%	7.95	5.75 BetVictor	17.4%	-4.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	69.0%	1.45	1.55 Betano	64.5%	+4.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	31.0%	3.23	2.75 Betano	36.4%	-5.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	47.6%	2.10	2.32 Betano	43.1%	+4.5
Total goals	Under 3.5	52.4%	1.91	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	-7.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	62.5%	1.60	1.87 Betfair	53.5%	+9.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Fenerbahçe favoured against Göztepe

Our model makes Fenerbahçe 65% to win this Süper Lig fixture, with the draw at 19% and Göztepe at 16%. The goal projection is 2.41 for Fenerbahçe against 1.15 for Göztepe — a commanding edge to Fenerbahçe on expected output. A combined 3.56 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 69% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Fenerbahçe is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 35% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-1 9%; 2-0 8%; 1-1 8%; 3-1 8%; 3-0 7%

This season

Season records for Fenerbahçe and Göztepe
Fenerbahçe		Göztepe
11	Played	11
6-1-4	W-D-L	4-3-4
1.73	Pts / game	1.36
2.64	Goals for / game	2.00
0.91	Goals against / game	1.73
82%	Over 2.5	82%
45%	BTTS	73%
55%	Clean sheets	18%
9%	Failed to score	9%
3-0-2	Home record	1-1-3
3-1-2	Away record	3-2-1
W1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Fenerbahçe · Göztepe

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.5	Shots	16.0
6.7	Shots on target	6.2
4.5	Corners	4.8
2.00	Cards	2.67
12.0	Fouls	18.5
55	Possession %	41
2.19	xG	1.88
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
17.7	Shots	12.8
6.3	Shots on target	4.7
6.0	Corners	4.3
1.60	Cards	2.67
9.3	Fouls	9.2
45	Possession %	59
1.45	xG	1.24
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Fenerbahçe	Metric	Göztepe
2.00	Goals scored	2.40 (better)
1.60 (better)	Goals conceded	1.80
1.93	Expected goals (xG)	2.36 (better)
	Big chances
5.00	Shots on target	5.60 (better)
16.75	Total shots	17.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.75 (better)	Corners	4.60
53.3 (better)	Possession %	41.6
469 (better)	Passes	294
	Tackles
10.50 (better)	Fouls	17.00
2.25 (better)	Offsides	2.60
	Throw-ins
2.00 (better)	Yellow cards	2.80
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Fenerbahçe wins: 0
Draws: 2
Göztepe wins: 1
Goals / game: 1.67
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 67%

Fenerbahçe v Göztepe1–22026-10-31
Fenerbahçe v Göztepe1–12026-01-25
Göztepe v Fenerbahçe0–02025-08-16

Süper Lig table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Galatasaray	11	9	1	1	+12	28	Galatasaray won 5 of the last 5
2	Trabzonspor	11	8	1	2	+18	25	Trabzonspor won 5 of the last 5
3	Amed	11	7	2	2	+13	23	Amed won 3 of the last 5
4	Beşiktaş	11	7	1	3	+11	22	Beşiktaş won 3 of the last 5
5	Kasımpaşa	11	5	5	1	+6	20	Kasımpaşa won 3 of the last 5
6	Fenerbahçe	11	6	1	4	+19	19	Fenerbahçe won 3 of the last 5
7	Kocaelispor	11	6	1	4	+4	19	Kocaelispor won 2 of the last 5
8	Başakşehir	11	5	2	4	+2	17	Başakşehir won 3 of the last 5
9	Çorum FK	11	5	1	5	0	16	Çorum FK won 3 of the last 5
10	Göztepe	11	4	3	4	+3	15	Göztepe won 4 of the last 5
11	Rizespor	11	4	2	5	-3	14	Rizespor won 1 of the last 5
12	Erzurumspor FK	11	4	2	5	-7	14	Erzurumspor FK won 2 of the last 5
13	Alanyaspor	11	3	3	5	-9	12	Alanyaspor won 0 of the last 5
14	Gençlerbirliği S.K.	11	3	2	6	-9	11	Gençlerbirliği S.K. won 1 of the last 5
15	Konyaspor	11	2	2	7	-8	8	Konyaspor won 1 of the last 5
16	Gaziantep FK	11	2	2	7	-10	8	Gaziantep FK won 0 of the last 5
17	Samsunspor	11	2	1	8	-15	7	Samsunspor won 1 of the last 5
18	Eyüpspor	11	1	0	10	-27	3	Eyüpspor won 0 of the last 5