Gençlerbirliği S.K. v 
Alanyaspor
Match statistics
| Gençlerbirliği S.K. | Alanyaspor | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 15 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| — | Red cards | — |
| 1 | Offsides | 3 |
| 316 | Passes | 454 |
| 41% | Possession % | 59% |
| 1.91 | xG | 0.50 |
- Over 1.5
- 70%
- Over 2.5
- 43%
- Over 3.5
- 22%
- Both score
- 49%
- Model pick
- Alanyaspor 37%
- Likely score
- 1-1 14%
- Expected goals
- 1.17 – 1.22
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 2 of 5Gençlerbirliği S.K. -0.25
Why this price?
Back Gençlerbirliği S.K. -0.25 on the Asian handicap at 2.30 with Bet365 — Gençlerbirliği S.K. must win by more than 0.25 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 40% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 49%; we judge it at 45%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.21. The offered 2.30 implies only 43%, so the price is 4.1% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 0.79 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.17, Alanyaspor 1.22.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 34.1% | 2.93 | 2.75 Betano | 36.4% | -2.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 29.0% | 3.44 | 3.30 BetVictor | 30.3% | -1.3 |
| Match result | Alanyaspor | 36.9% | 2.71 | 2.70 Betfair | 37.0% | -0.2 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 69.6% | 1.44 | 1.33 Betano | 75.2% | -5.6 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 30.4% | 3.29 | 3.50 Bet365 | 28.6% | +1.9 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 42.7% | 2.34 | 2.12 Betano | 47.2% | -4.4 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 57.3% | 1.75 | 1.85 Bet365 | 54.1% | +3.2 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 21.9% | 4.57 | 3.65 Betano | 27.4% | -5.5 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 78.1% | 1.28 | 1.32 Betano | 75.8% | +2.4 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 49.2% | 2.03 | 1.80 Bet365 | 55.6% | -6.3 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 50.8% | 1.97 | 2.15 Betfair | 46.5% | +4.3 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. v Alanyaspor: too close to call
Our model makes Gençlerbirliği S.K. 34% to win this Süper Lig fixture, with the draw at 29% and Alanyaspor at 37%. The goal projection is 1.17 for Gençlerbirliği S.K. against 1.22 for Alanyaspor — almost nothing to Alanyaspor on expected output. A combined 2.39 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 43% and both teams to score at 49%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 14%
- 0-1 11%
- 1-0 10%
- 0-0 10%
- 1-2 8%
This season
| Gençlerbirliği S.K. | Alanyaspor | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Played | 11 |
| 3-2-6 | W-D-L | 3-3-5 |
| 1.00 | Pts / game | 1.09 |
| 1.09 | Goals for / game | 0.82 |
| 1.91 | Goals against / game | 1.64 |
| 64% | Over 2.5 | 55% |
| 36% | BTTS | 45% |
| 18% | Clean sheets | 27% |
| 45% | Failed to score | 36% |
| 2-2-2 | Home record | 1-2-2 |
| 1-0-4 | Away record | 2-1-3 |
| L1 | Streak | L4 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Gençlerbirliği S.K. · Alanyaspor
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 10.4 | Shots | 12.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Shots on target | 3.6 |
| 4.4 | Corners | 4.2 |
| 3.20 | Cards | 2.00 |
| 15.0 | Fouls | 11.0 |
| 40 | Possession % | 49 |
| 0.98 | xG | 0.98 |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Conceded
| 16.4 | Shots | 17.8 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.8 | Shots on target | 5.8 |
| 5.4 | Corners | 4.2 |
| 2.40 | Cards | 2.00 |
| 11.4 | Fouls | 13.0 |
| 60 | Possession % | 51 |
| 2.08 | xG | 2.25 |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Form comparison
| Gençlerbirliği S.K. | Metric | Alanyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| 0.40 | Goals scored | 1.00 (better) |
| 2.00 | Goals conceded | 1.60 (better) |
| 0.98 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.13 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 3.00 | Shots on target | 4.60 (better) |
| 11.00 | Total shots | 13.60 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 6.25 (better) | Corners | 5.40 |
| 43.3 | Possession % | 49.4 (better) |
| 317 | Passes | 412 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 13.50 | Fouls | 9.40 (better) |
| 2.00 | Offsides | 1.00 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.00 | Yellow cards | 1.60 (better) |
| Red cards |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Gençlerbirliği S.K. wins
- 1
- Draws
- 2
- Alanyaspor wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 3.00
- Over 2.5
- 67%
- Both score
- 33%
- Gençlerbirliği S.K. v Alanyaspor5–02026-11-02
- Alanyaspor v Gençlerbirliği S.K.0–02026-03-09
- Gençlerbirliği S.K. v Alanyaspor2–22025-10-04
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | +12 | 28 | Galatasaray won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Trabzonspor | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | +18 | 25 | Trabzonspor won 5 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Amed | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | +13 | 23 | Amed won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | +11 | 22 | Beşiktaş won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Kasımpaşa | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | +6 | 20 | Kasımpaşa won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Fenerbahçe | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | +19 | 19 | Fenerbahçe won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Kocaelispor | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | +4 | 19 | Kocaelispor won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Başakşehir | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | +2 | 17 | Başakşehir won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Çorum FK | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 16 | Çorum FK won 3 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Göztepe | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | +3 | 15 | Göztepe won 4 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Rizespor | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 14 | Rizespor won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Erzurumspor FK | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 14 | Erzurumspor FK won 2 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Alanyaspor | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 12 | Alanyaspor won 0 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 11 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. won 1 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Konyaspor | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -8 | 8 | Konyaspor won 1 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Gaziantep FK | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 8 | Gaziantep FK won 0 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Samsunspor | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -15 | 7 | Samsunspor won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Eyüpspor | 11 | 1 | 0 | 10 | -27 | 3 | Eyüpspor won 0 of the last 5 |