Amed v Eyüpspor

3rd5–118th

10:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Amed		Eyüpspor
20	Shots	8
7	Shots on target	2
7	Corners	2
18	Fouls	5
0	Yellow cards	1
1	Red cards	0
3	Offsides	0
468	Passes	388
55%	Possession %	45%
4.95	xG	0.98

Over 1.5: 89%
Over 2.5: 71%
Over 3.5: 50%
Both score: 54%

Model pick: Amed 78%
Likely score: 2-0 10%
Expected goals: 2.83 – 0.85

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Over 2.5	71.2%	1.41	1.65 Betano	60.6%	+10.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	28.8%	3.47	2.35 Bet365	42.6%	-13.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	50.2%	1.99	2.57 Betano	38.9%	+11.3
Total goals	Under 3.5	49.8%	2.01	1.53 Betano	65.4%	-15.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	54.4%	1.84	2.12 Betano	47.2%	+7.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	45.6%	2.19	1.73 William Hill	57.8%	-12.2
Match result	Amed	77.8%	1.29	1.30 William Hill	76.9%	+0.8
Match result	Draw	14.0%	7.13	6.50 Bet365	15.4%	-1.4
Match result	Eyüpspor	8.2%	12.17	13.00 Bet365	7.7%	+0.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	88.5%	1.13	1.21 Betano	82.6%	+5.9
Total goals	Under 1.5	11.5%	8.72	4.80 BetVictor	20.8%	-9.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Amed favoured against Eyüpspor

Our model makes Amed 78% to win this Süper Lig fixture, with the draw at 14% and Eyüpspor at 8%. The goal projection is 2.83 for Amed against 0.85 for Eyüpspor — a commanding edge to Amed on expected output. A combined 3.68 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 71% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Amed is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 22% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-0 10%; 3-0 9%; 2-1 9%; 3-1 8%; 1-0 7%

This season

Season records for Amed and Eyüpspor
Amed		Eyüpspor
11	Played	11
7-2-2	W-D-L	1-0-10
2.09	Pts / game	0.27
2.55	Goals for / game	0.27
1.36	Goals against / game	2.73
82%	Over 2.5	45%
64%	BTTS	18%
27%	Clean sheets	0%
9%	Failed to score	82%
6-0-0	Home record	1-0-5
1-2-2	Away record	0-0-5
L1	Streak	L8

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Amed · Eyüpspor

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
16.3	Shots	10.0
5.7	Shots on target	3.8
5.3	Corners	3.8
4.67	Cards	1.50
16.3	Fouls	8.3
48	Possession %	51
2.19	xG	0.77
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.8	Shots	15.3
4.0	Shots on target	6.8
4.2	Corners	5.2
3.33	Cards	1.83
9.8	Fouls	17.5
53	Possession %	50
1.03	xG	2.70
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Amed	Metric	Eyüpspor
2.60 (better)	Goals scored	0.00
1.20 (better)	Goals conceded	3.40
2.14 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.87
	Big chances
5.40 (better)	Shots on target	4.60
15.60 (better)	Total shots	14.40
	Touches in opp. box
4.60	Corners	5.00 (better)
47.0	Possession %	51.6 (better)
389	Passes	423 (better)
	Tackles
14.40	Fouls	9.00 (better)
2.20	Offsides	1.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
3.40	Yellow cards	0.80 (better)
1.00	Red cards	0.50 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Amed wins: 1
Draws: 0
Eyüpspor wins: 0
Goals / game: 6.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Amed v Eyüpspor5–12026-11-01

Süper Lig table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Galatasaray	11	9	1	1	+12	28	Galatasaray won 5 of the last 5
2	Trabzonspor	11	8	1	2	+18	25	Trabzonspor won 5 of the last 5
3	Amed	11	7	2	2	+13	23	Amed won 3 of the last 5
4	Beşiktaş	11	7	1	3	+11	22	Beşiktaş won 3 of the last 5
5	Kasımpaşa	11	5	5	1	+6	20	Kasımpaşa won 3 of the last 5
6	Fenerbahçe	11	6	1	4	+19	19	Fenerbahçe won 3 of the last 5
7	Kocaelispor	11	6	1	4	+4	19	Kocaelispor won 2 of the last 5
8	Başakşehir	11	5	2	4	+2	17	Başakşehir won 3 of the last 5
9	Çorum FK	11	5	1	5	0	16	Çorum FK won 3 of the last 5
10	Göztepe	11	4	3	4	+3	15	Göztepe won 4 of the last 5
11	Rizespor	11	4	2	5	-3	14	Rizespor won 1 of the last 5
12	Erzurumspor FK	11	4	2	5	-7	14	Erzurumspor FK won 2 of the last 5
13	Alanyaspor	11	3	3	5	-9	12	Alanyaspor won 0 of the last 5
14	Gençlerbirliği S.K.	11	3	2	6	-9	11	Gençlerbirliği S.K. won 1 of the last 5
15	Konyaspor	11	2	2	7	-8	8	Konyaspor won 1 of the last 5
16	Gaziantep FK	11	2	2	7	-10	8	Gaziantep FK won 0 of the last 5
17	Samsunspor	11	2	1	8	-15	7	Samsunspor won 1 of the last 5
18	Eyüpspor	11	1	0	10	-27	3	Eyüpspor won 0 of the last 5