Kocaelispor v Rizespor

7th0–011th

13:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Kocaelispor		Rizespor
14	Shots	17
4	Shots on target	4
7	Corners	4
14	Fouls	17
4	Yellow cards	3
—	Red cards	—
2	Offsides	0
375	Passes	390
50%	Possession %	50%
0.59	xG	1.24

Over 1.5: 66%
Over 2.5: 39%
Over 3.5: 19%
Both score: 46%

Model pick: Kocaelispor 41%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 1.25 – 1.00

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Kocaelispor	41.4%	2.42	2.85 Dafabet	35.1%	+6.3
Match result	Draw	29.8%	3.36	3.55 Betano	28.2%	+1.6
Match result	Rizespor	28.9%	3.46	2.70 Dafabet	37.0%	-8.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	66.4%	1.50	1.31 Betano	76.3%	-9.9
Total goals	Under 1.5	33.6%	2.98	3.60 BetVictor	27.8%	+5.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	39.1%	2.56	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	-12.2
Total goals	Under 2.5	60.9%	1.64	1.91 Betano	52.4%	+8.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	19.1%	5.24	3.40 Bet365	29.4%	-10.3
Total goals	Under 3.5	80.9%	1.24	1.35 Betano	74.1%	+6.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	45.8%	2.18	1.75 Betano	57.1%	-11.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	54.2%	1.84	2.10 Betfair	47.6%	+6.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Kocaelispor favoured against Rizespor

Our model makes Kocaelispor 41% to win this Süper Lig fixture, with the draw at 30% and Rizespor at 29%. The goal projection is 1.25 for Kocaelispor against 1.00 for Rizespor — a clear edge to Kocaelispor on expected output. A combined 2.25 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 39% and both teams to score at 46%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 1-0 13%; 0-0 11%; 0-1 10%; 2-0 8%

This season

Season records for Kocaelispor and Rizespor
Kocaelispor		Rizespor
11	Played	11
6-1-4	W-D-L	4-2-5
1.73	Pts / game	1.27
1.18	Goals for / game	1.18
0.82	Goals against / game	1.45
36%	Over 2.5	55%
36%	BTTS	45%
45%	Clean sheets	27%
27%	Failed to score	36%
3-1-1	Home record	1-0-4
3-0-3	Away record	3-2-1
W1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Kocaelispor · Rizespor

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.4	Shots	15.8
5.2	Shots on target	4.8
5.4	Corners	4.8
3.00	Cards	1.60
13.6	Fouls	10.5
51	Possession %	53
1.23	xG	1.58
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.4	Shots	14.2
4.0	Shots on target	5.7
4.0	Corners	4.0
2.00	Cards	3.20
16.4	Fouls	13.7
49	Possession %	47
1.11	xG	1.42
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Kocaelispor	Metric	Rizespor
1.00	Goals scored	1.60 (better)
1.00 (better)	Goals conceded	1.40
1.39 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.30
	Big chances
4.00	Shots on target	4.25 (better)
12.80	Total shots	13.50 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.00 (better)	Corners	3.75
48.2	Possession %	52.3 (better)
403	Passes	417 (better)
	Tackles
13.00	Fouls	8.75 (better)
2.00	Offsides	1.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.40 (better)	Yellow cards	2.00
	Red cards	1.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Kocaelispor wins: 0
Draws: 2
Rizespor wins: 1
Goals / game: 1.33
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 33%

Kocaelispor v Rizespor0–02026-10-31
Rizespor v Kocaelispor2–02026-02-20
Kocaelispor v Rizespor1–12025-09-21

Süper Lig table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Galatasaray	11	9	1	1	+12	28	Galatasaray won 5 of the last 5
2	Trabzonspor	11	8	1	2	+18	25	Trabzonspor won 5 of the last 5
3	Amed	11	7	2	2	+13	23	Amed won 3 of the last 5
4	Beşiktaş	11	7	1	3	+11	22	Beşiktaş won 3 of the last 5
5	Kasımpaşa	11	5	5	1	+6	20	Kasımpaşa won 3 of the last 5
6	Fenerbahçe	11	6	1	4	+19	19	Fenerbahçe won 3 of the last 5
7	Kocaelispor	11	6	1	4	+4	19	Kocaelispor won 2 of the last 5
8	Başakşehir	11	5	2	4	+2	17	Başakşehir won 3 of the last 5
9	Çorum FK	11	5	1	5	0	16	Çorum FK won 3 of the last 5
10	Göztepe	11	4	3	4	+3	15	Göztepe won 4 of the last 5
11	Rizespor	11	4	2	5	-3	14	Rizespor won 1 of the last 5
12	Erzurumspor FK	11	4	2	5	-7	14	Erzurumspor FK won 2 of the last 5
13	Alanyaspor	11	3	3	5	-9	12	Alanyaspor won 0 of the last 5
14	Gençlerbirliği S.K.	11	3	2	6	-9	11	Gençlerbirliği S.K. won 1 of the last 5
15	Konyaspor	11	2	2	7	-8	8	Konyaspor won 1 of the last 5
16	Gaziantep FK	11	2	2	7	-10	8	Gaziantep FK won 0 of the last 5
17	Samsunspor	11	2	1	8	-15	7	Samsunspor won 1 of the last 5
18	Eyüpspor	11	1	0	10	-27	3	Eyüpspor won 0 of the last 5