Predicted Edge

Trabzonspor v Gaziantep FK

Trabzonspor won 5 of the last 52nd2–0Gaziantep FK won 0 of the last 516th

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Trabzonspor Gaziantep FK
17Shots12
5Shots on target5
4Corners2
6Fouls12
0Yellow cards1
—Red cards—
3Offsides2
511Passes358
59%Possession %41%
0.96xG0.62
Over 1.5
85%
Over 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
43%
Both score
56%
Model pick
Trabzonspor 69%
Likely score
2-0 10%
Expected goals
2.39 – 0.94

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Edge strength 5 of 5

Trabzonspor -0.5

1.42Betano · fair 1.30 · qualifies at 1.34+ · 2.00u
Why this price?

Back Trabzonspor -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 1.42 with Betano — Trabzonspor must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 69% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 82%; we judge it at 77%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.30. The offered 1.42 implies only 70%, so the price is 9.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Trabzonspor 2.39, Gaziantep FK 0.94.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultTrabzonspor69.2%1.451.33 William Hill75.2%-6.0
Match resultDraw18.2%5.496.50 Betfair15.4%+2.8
Match resultGaziantep FK12.6%7.929.75 Betano10.3%+2.4
Total goalsOver 1.584.9%1.181.13 Betano88.5%-3.6
Total goalsUnder 1.515.1%6.627.50 Betfair13.3%+1.8
Total goalsOver 2.564.6%1.551.40 Betano71.4%-6.8
Total goalsUnder 2.535.4%2.833.25 Betfair30.8%+4.6
Total goalsOver 3.542.6%2.352.38 Bet36542.0%+0.6
Total goalsUnder 3.557.4%1.741.90 Betfair52.6%+4.8
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes55.7%1.801.75 Betano57.1%-1.5
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No44.3%2.262.20 Bet36545.5%-1.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Trabzonspor favoured against Gaziantep FK

Our model makes Trabzonspor 69% to win this Süper Lig fixture, with the draw at 18% and Gaziantep FK at 13%. The goal projection is 2.39 for Trabzonspor against 0.94 for Gaziantep FK — a commanding edge to Trabzonspor on expected output. A combined 3.33 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 65% and both teams to score at 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Trabzonspor is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 31% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
2-0 10%
2-1 10%
1-1 8%
1-0 8%
3-0 8%

This season

Season records for Trabzonspor and Gaziantep FK
Trabzonspor Gaziantep FK
11Played11
8-1-2W-D-L2-2-7
2.27Pts / game0.73
2.36Goals for / game0.82
0.73Goals against / game1.73
55%Over 2.545%
36%BTTS45%
55%Clean sheets18%
9%Failed to score45%
5-0-0Home record0-2-4
3-1-2Away record2-0-3
W6StreakL6

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Trabzonspor · Gaziantep FK

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.6Shots14.8
6.4Shots on target4.4
4.2Corners5.6
1.80Cards2.00
9.6Fouls10.6
51Possession %54
2.11xG1.04
5 matchessample5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.4Shots13.0
5.0Shots on target5.2
5.2Corners3.4
2.00Cards1.80
15.6Fouls13.2
49Possession %46
1.41xG1.59
5 matchessample5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
TrabzonsporMetricGaziantep FK
2.20 (better)Goals scored0.20
0.60 (better)Goals conceded1.60
2.38 (better)Expected goals (xG)0.88
Big chances
7.25 (better)Shots on target2.20
14.75 (better)Total shots11.80
Touches in opp. box
5.25 (better)Corners4.60
49.5 (better)Possession %49.4
433 (better)Passes398
Tackles
10.25 (better)Fouls11.00
1.67Offsides1.60 (better)
Throw-ins
1.50 (better)Yellow cards2.60
1.00Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Trabzonspor wins
2
Draws
1
Gaziantep FK wins
0
Goals / game
2.33
Over 2.5
33%
Both score
67%
Süper Lig table
League table
#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
1Galatasaray11911+1228Galatasaray won 5 of the last 5
2Trabzonspor11812+1825Trabzonspor won 5 of the last 5
3Amed11722+1323Amed won 3 of the last 5
4Beşiktaş11713+1122Beşiktaş won 3 of the last 5
5Kasımpaşa11551+620Kasımpaşa won 3 of the last 5
6Fenerbahçe11614+1919Fenerbahçe won 3 of the last 5
7Kocaelispor11614+419Kocaelispor won 2 of the last 5
8Başakşehir11524+217Başakşehir won 3 of the last 5
9Çorum FK11515016Çorum FK won 3 of the last 5
10Göztepe11434+315Göztepe won 4 of the last 5
11Rizespor11425-314Rizespor won 1 of the last 5
12Erzurumspor FK11425-714Erzurumspor FK won 2 of the last 5
13Alanyaspor11335-912Alanyaspor won 0 of the last 5
14Gençlerbirliği S.K.11326-911Gençlerbirliği S.K. won 1 of the last 5
15Konyaspor11227-88Konyaspor won 1 of the last 5
16Gaziantep FK11227-108Gaziantep FK won 0 of the last 5
17Samsunspor11218-157Samsunspor won 1 of the last 5
18Eyüpspor111010-273Eyüpspor won 0 of the last 5