Süper Lig · Review

Süper Lig matchweek 8 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every Süper Lig result from matchweek 8 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 19 Oct 2026, updated 20 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Süper Lig, matchweek 8 (16–19 October 2026), is complete: nine matches, 23 goals (2.56 a game), seven home wins, no draws and two away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in five of the nine and both teams scored in four.

The result the model rated least likely was Göztepe's win in Kocaelispor v Göztepe (1–2), which it had at 29%; the one it rated most likely was Amed's win in Amed v Konyaspor (1–0), at 67%.

After the round, Galatasaray lead on 19 points, two points clear of Amed, with Fenerbahçe third on 16. The bottom three are Konyaspor (5), Samsunspor (4), Eyüpspor (3).

Match by match

Çorum FK 2–1 RizesporFri 16 Oct, 18:00

Before kick-off the model had Çorum FK 53%, the draw 21% and Rizespor 26%, so Çorum FK winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score, 2-1, was the one that came. Expected goals were 0.66–0.81: an even contest on chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 70%, came in.

Erzurumspor FK 2–0 EyüpsporSat 17 Oct, 11:30

Before kick-off the model had Erzurumspor FK 45%, the draw 28% and Eyüpspor 27%, so Erzurumspor FK winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 55%, came in.

Amed 1–0 KonyasporSat 17 Oct, 14:00

Before kick-off the model had Amed 67%, the draw 18% and Konyaspor 15%, so Amed winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 1.65–0.25: Amed created the better chances. The headline call, Amed to win at 67%, came in.

Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0–1 GalatasaraySat 17 Oct, 14:00

Before kick-off the model had Gençlerbirliği S.K. 21%, the draw 23% and Galatasaray 56%, so Galatasaray winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.16–1.81: Galatasaray created the better chances. The headline call, Galatasaray to win at 56%, came in.

Fenerbahçe 3–0 AlanyasporSat 17 Oct, 17:00

Before kick-off the model had Fenerbahçe 63%, the draw 21% and Alanyaspor 15%, so Fenerbahçe winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-0. Expected goals were 3.77–0.99: Fenerbahçe created the better chances. The headline call, Fenerbahçe to win at 63%, came in.

Kasımpaşa 4–1 SamsunsporSun 18 Oct, 11:30

Before kick-off the model had Kasımpaşa 42%, the draw 27% and Samsunspor 30%, so Kasımpaşa winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.60–1.13: Kasımpaşa created the better chances. The headline call, Kasımpaşa to win at 42%, came in. Pick published: Samsunspor +0.25 at 2.21 — lost.

Kocaelispor 1–2 GöztepeSun 18 Oct, 14:00

Before kick-off the model had Kocaelispor 41%, the draw 30% and Göztepe 29%, with Kocaelispor favoured; it put Göztepe winning at 29%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.50–0.94: Kocaelispor created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 61%, did not come in. Pick published: Kocaelispor -0.25 at 2.25 — lost.

Başakşehir 2–1 Gaziantep FKSun 18 Oct, 17:00

Before kick-off the model had Başakşehir 60%, the draw 22% and Gaziantep FK 18%, so Başakşehir winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.03–1.13: Başakşehir created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 59%, came in.

Trabzonspor 2–0 BeşiktaşMon 19 Oct, 18:00

Before kick-off the model had Trabzonspor 39%, the draw 26% and Beşiktaş 36%, so Trabzonspor winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.35–1.19: Trabzonspor created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 61%, did not come in. Pick published: Trabzonspor at 3.20 — won.

The numbers this season

Süper Lig has averaged 2.89 goals a game over 72 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 58% of them and both sides scoring in 44%. Home sides have won 49% of matches, 19% have been drawn and away sides have won 32%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.