Süper Lig · Review

Süper Lig matchweek 11 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every Süper Lig result from matchweek 11 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 8 Nov 2026, updated 9 Nov 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Süper Lig, matchweek 11 (6–8 November 2026), is complete: nine matches, 28 goals (3.11 a game), four home wins, no draws and five away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in five of the nine and both teams scored in three.

The result the model rated least likely was Başakşehir's win in Göztepe v Başakşehir (1–2), which it had at 35%; the one it rated most likely was Beşiktaş's win in Beşiktaş v Gençlerbirliği S.K. (3–0), at 69%.

After the round, Galatasaray lead on 28 points, three points clear of Trabzonspor, with Amed third on 23. The bottom three are Gaziantep FK (8), Samsunspor (7), Eyüpspor (3).

Match by match

Gaziantep FK 0–2 KasımpaşaFri 6 Nov, 17:00

Before kick-off the model had Gaziantep FK 34%, the draw 27% and Kasımpaşa 39%, so Kasımpaşa winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.88–1.96: Kasımpaşa created the better chances. The headline call, Kasımpaşa to win at 39%, came in. Pick published: Gaziantep FK -0.5 at 2.50 — lost.

Eyüpspor 0–2 KocaelisporSat 7 Nov, 10:30

Before kick-off the model had Eyüpspor 25%, the draw 30% and Kocaelispor 45%, so Kocaelispor winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 0-1. Expected goals were 0.66–1.00: Kocaelispor created the better chances. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 65%, came in.

Samsunspor 1–0 KonyasporSat 7 Nov, 13:00

Before kick-off the model had Samsunspor 40%, the draw 27% and Konyaspor 32%, so Samsunspor winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.70–0.82: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Samsunspor to win at 40%, came in.

Galatasaray 4–3 AmedSat 7 Nov, 16:00

Before kick-off the model had Galatasaray 48%, the draw 22% and Amed 30%, so Galatasaray winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.47–1.27: an even contest on chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 71%, came in.

Göztepe 1–2 BaşakşehirSat 7 Nov, 16:00

Before kick-off the model had Göztepe 40%, the draw 25% and Başakşehir 35%, with Göztepe favoured; it put Başakşehir winning at 35%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.27–1.35: an even contest on chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 61%, came in. Pick published: Göztepe -0.5 at 2.32 — lost.

Rizespor 2–1 Erzurumspor FKSun 8 Nov, 10:30

Before kick-off the model had Rizespor 43%, the draw 27% and Erzurumspor FK 31%, so Rizespor winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 3.30–0.88: Rizespor created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 55%, came in.

Çorum FK 0–5 FenerbahçeSun 8 Nov, 13:00

Before kick-off the model had Çorum FK 30%, the draw 22% and Fenerbahçe 47%, so Fenerbahçe winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.00–1.30: Çorum FK created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, both teams to score at 69%, did not come in.

Alanyaspor 0–2 TrabzonsporSun 8 Nov, 15:30

Before kick-off the model had Alanyaspor 26%, the draw 25% and Trabzonspor 50%, so Trabzonspor winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.04–2.61: Trabzonspor created the better chances. The headline call, Trabzonspor to win at 50%, came in.

Beşiktaş 3–0 Gençlerbirliği S.K.Sun 8 Nov, 18:00

Before kick-off the model had Beşiktaş 69%, the draw 19% and Gençlerbirliği S.K. 12%, so Beşiktaş winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-0. Expected goals were 4.09–0.18: Beşiktaş created the better chances. The headline call, Beşiktaş to win at 69%, came in.

The numbers this season

Süper Lig has averaged 3.01 goals a game over 99 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 60% of them and both sides scoring in 45%. Home sides have won 47% of matches, 16% have been drawn and away sides have won 36%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.