Eyüpspor v Kocaelispor

18th0–27th

10:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Eyüpspor		Kocaelispor
6	Shots	12
3	Shots on target	7
4	Corners	1
13	Fouls	17
1	Yellow cards	3
—	Red cards	—
1	Offsides	1
466	Passes	467
50%	Possession %	50%
0.66	xG	1.00

Over 1.5: 63%
Over 2.5: 35%
Over 3.5: 16%
Both score: 42%

Model pick: Kocaelispor 45%
Likely score: 0-1 15%
Expected goals: 0.85 – 1.25

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Eyüpspor	24.7%	4.04	4.25 Betano	23.5%	+1.2
Match result	Draw	30.5%	3.28	3.50 Betano	28.6%	+1.9
Match result	Kocaelispor	44.8%	2.23	2.05 Betano	48.8%	-4.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	62.7%	1.59	1.40 Betfair	71.4%	-8.7
Total goals	Under 1.5	37.3%	2.68	3.25 Bet365	30.8%	+6.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	35.1%	2.85	2.20 Betfair	45.5%	-10.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	64.9%	1.54	1.78 Betano	56.2%	+8.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	16.2%	6.18	4.20 Betfair	23.8%	-7.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	83.8%	1.19	1.29 Betfair	77.5%	+6.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	41.6%	2.40	1.93 BetVictor	51.8%	-10.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	58.4%	1.71	1.90 Betfair	52.6%	+5.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Kocaelispor favoured against Eyüpspor

Our model makes Eyüpspor 25% to win this Süper Lig fixture, with the draw at 30% and Kocaelispor at 45%. The goal projection is 0.85 for Eyüpspor against 1.25 for Kocaelispor — a clear edge to Kocaelispor on expected output. A combined 2.10 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 35% and both teams to score at 42%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-1 at 15%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 0-1 15%; 1-1 14%; 0-0 13%; 1-0 10%; 0-2 10%

This season

Season records for Eyüpspor and Kocaelispor
Eyüpspor		Kocaelispor
11	Played	11
1-0-10	W-D-L	6-1-4
0.27	Pts / game	1.73
0.27	Goals for / game	1.18
2.73	Goals against / game	0.82
45%	Over 2.5	36%
18%	BTTS	36%
0%	Clean sheets	45%
82%	Failed to score	27%
1-0-5	Home record	3-1-1
0-0-5	Away record	3-0-3
L8	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Eyüpspor · Kocaelispor

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
10.0	Shots	13.4
3.8	Shots on target	5.2
3.8	Corners	5.4
1.50	Cards	3.00
8.3	Fouls	13.6
51	Possession %	51
0.77	xG	1.23
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.3	Shots	11.4
6.8	Shots on target	4.0
5.2	Corners	4.0
1.83	Cards	2.00
17.5	Fouls	16.4
50	Possession %	49
2.70	xG	1.11
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Eyüpspor	Metric	Kocaelispor
0.00	Goals scored	1.80 (better)
3.00	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
0.73	Expected goals (xG)	1.56 (better)
	Big chances
4.50	Shots on target	5.00 (better)
11.50	Total shots	15.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.25	Corners	5.00 (better)
52.0 (better)	Possession %	51.5
442 (better)	Passes	420
	Tackles
8.00 (better)	Fouls	13.25
1.25 (better)	Offsides	3.25
	Throw-ins
1.00 (better)	Yellow cards	2.25
1.00	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Eyüpspor wins: 0
Draws: 0
Kocaelispor wins: 3
Goals / game: 1.33
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Eyüpspor v Kocaelispor0–22026-11-07
Eyüpspor v Kocaelispor0–12026-03-09
Kocaelispor v Eyüpspor1–02025-10-04

Süper Lig table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Galatasaray	11	9	1	1	+12	28	Galatasaray won 5 of the last 5
2	Trabzonspor	11	8	1	2	+18	25	Trabzonspor won 5 of the last 5
3	Amed	11	7	2	2	+13	23	Amed won 3 of the last 5
4	Beşiktaş	11	7	1	3	+11	22	Beşiktaş won 3 of the last 5
5	Kasımpaşa	11	5	5	1	+6	20	Kasımpaşa won 3 of the last 5
6	Fenerbahçe	11	6	1	4	+19	19	Fenerbahçe won 3 of the last 5
7	Kocaelispor	11	6	1	4	+4	19	Kocaelispor won 2 of the last 5
8	Başakşehir	11	5	2	4	+2	17	Başakşehir won 3 of the last 5
9	Çorum FK	11	5	1	5	0	16	Çorum FK won 3 of the last 5
10	Göztepe	11	4	3	4	+3	15	Göztepe won 4 of the last 5
11	Rizespor	11	4	2	5	-3	14	Rizespor won 1 of the last 5
12	Erzurumspor FK	11	4	2	5	-7	14	Erzurumspor FK won 2 of the last 5
13	Alanyaspor	11	3	3	5	-9	12	Alanyaspor won 0 of the last 5
14	Gençlerbirliği S.K.	11	3	2	6	-9	11	Gençlerbirliği S.K. won 1 of the last 5
15	Konyaspor	11	2	2	7	-8	8	Konyaspor won 1 of the last 5
16	Gaziantep FK	11	2	2	7	-10	8	Gaziantep FK won 0 of the last 5
17	Samsunspor	11	2	1	8	-15	7	Samsunspor won 1 of the last 5
18	Eyüpspor	11	1	0	10	-27	3	Eyüpspor won 0 of the last 5