Rizespor won 1 of the last 5WDLLL11th2–1Erzurumspor FK won 2 of the last 5LLWWD12th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Rizespor
Erzurumspor FK
24
Shots
9
6
Shots on target
4
8
Corners
2
8
Fouls
14
0
Yellow cards
3
—
Red cards
—
0
Offsides
1
614
Passes
367
62%
Possession %
38%
3.30
xG
0.88
43%
27%
31%
1 · RizesporXErzurumspor FK · 2
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
29%
Both score
55%
Model pick
Rizespor 43%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.49 – 1.23
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Rizespor
42.6%
2.35
1.95 William Hill
51.3%
-8.7
Match result
Draw
26.7%
3.75
3.85 Betano
26.0%
+0.7
Match result
Erzurumspor FK
30.7%
3.25
4.20 Betfair
23.8%
+6.9
Total goals
Over 1.5
76.0%
1.32
1.26 Betano
79.4%
-3.4
Total goals
Under 1.5
24.0%
4.17
3.90 BetVictor
25.6%
-1.6
Total goals
Over 2.5
51.0%
1.96
1.90 Bet365
52.6%
-1.7
Total goals
Under 2.5
49.0%
2.04
2.07 Betano
48.3%
+0.7
Total goals
Over 3.5
28.9%
3.46
3.25 Bet365
30.8%
-1.9
Total goals
Under 3.5
71.1%
1.41
1.44 Betano
69.4%
+1.7
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
55.3%
1.81
1.73 Bet365
57.8%
-2.5
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
44.7%
2.24
2.15 Betfair
46.5%
-1.8
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Rizespor favoured against Erzurumspor FK
Our model makes Rizespor 43% to win this Süper Lig fixture, with the draw at 27% and Erzurumspor FK at 31%. The goal projection is 1.49 for Rizespor against 1.23 for Erzurumspor FK — a clear edge to Rizespor on expected output. A combined 2.71 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Rizespor
Metric
Erzurumspor FK
1.40
Goals scored
1.40
1.80
Goals conceded
0.80 (better)
1.38 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.13
—
Big chances *
—
4.75 (better)
Shots on target
3.20
15.00 (better)
Total shots
10.60
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
4.50 (better)
Corners
3.80
49.0 (better)
Possession %
43.4
417 (better)
Passes
407
—
Tackles
—
11.50 (better)
Fouls
13.00
0.25 (better)
Offsides
1.20
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.33
Yellow cards
1.60 (better)
—
Red cards
—
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Rizespor v 
Erzurumspor FK