Erzurumspor FK won 2 of the last 5LLWWD12th1–3Çorum FK won 3 of the last 5LWLWW9th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Erzurumspor FK
Çorum FK
13
Shots
7
3
Shots on target
3
8
Corners
0
17
Fouls
15
2
Yellow cards
1
—
Red cards
—
2
Offsides
0
481
Passes
466
52%
Possession %
48%
0.73
xG
1.18
28%
25%
47%
1 · Erzurumspor FKXÇorum FK · 2
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
35%
Both score
59%
Model pick
Çorum FK 47%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.28 – 1.69
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Erzurumspor FK
28.5%
3.51
2.70 Betfair
37.0%
-8.6
Match result
Draw
25.0%
4.00
3.50 Betano
28.6%
-3.6
Match result
Çorum FK
46.5%
2.15
2.70 Dafabet
37.0%
+9.5
Total goals
Over 1.5
80.2%
1.25
1.34 Betano
74.6%
+5.6
Total goals
Under 1.5
19.8%
5.06
3.40 Bet365
29.4%
-9.6
Total goals
Over 2.5
57.1%
1.75
2.02 Betano
49.5%
+7.6
Total goals
Under 2.5
42.9%
2.33
1.83 Betano
54.6%
-11.7
Total goals
Over 3.5
34.7%
2.88
3.60 BetVictor
27.8%
+6.9
Total goals
Under 3.5
65.3%
1.53
1.32 Betano
75.8%
-10.4
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
59.5%
1.68
1.80 Bet365
55.6%
+3.9
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
40.5%
2.47
2.10 Betfair
47.6%
-7.1
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Çorum FK favoured against Erzurumspor FK
Our model makes Erzurumspor FK 28% to win this Süper Lig fixture, with the draw at 25% and Çorum FK at 47%. The goal projection is 1.28 for Erzurumspor FK against 1.69 for Çorum FK — a clear edge to Çorum FK on expected output. A combined 2.97 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 57% and both teams to score at 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Erzurumspor FK
Metric
Çorum FK
0.80
Goals scored
2.80 (better)
0.60 (better)
Goals conceded
0.80
1.09
Expected goals (xG)
1.76 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
3.00
Shots on target
6.60 (better)
10.00
Total shots
13.20 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
2.80
Corners
4.00 (better)
37.8
Possession %
52.4 (better)
341
Passes
489 (better)
—
Tackles
—
13.00 (better)
Fouls
16.80
1.40
Offsides
1.20 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.40 (better)
Yellow cards
2.80
—
Red cards
—
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Erzurumspor FK v 
Çorum FK