Galatasaray v Fenerbahçe

1st2–16th

18:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Galatasaray		Fenerbahçe
23	Shots	4
8	Shots on target	3
10	Corners	4
10	Fouls	18
2	Yellow cards	5
—	Red cards	—
4	Offsides	1
426	Passes	255
62%	Possession %	38%
2.27	xG	0.31

Over 1.5: 86%
Over 2.5: 66%
Over 3.5: 44%
Both score: 67%

Model pick: Galatasaray 39%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 1.71 – 1.67

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Galatasaray -0.5

2.30Bet365 · fair 2.06 · qualifies at 2.13+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Galatasaray -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.30 with Bet365 — Galatasaray must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 39% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 55%; we judge it at 48%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.06. The offered 2.30 implies only 43%, so the price is 11.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Galatasaray 1.71, Fenerbahçe 1.67.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Galatasaray	39.0%	2.56	2.15 Betano	46.5%	-7.5
Match result	Draw	23.7%	4.22	4.00 Bet365	25.0%	-1.3
Match result	Fenerbahçe	37.3%	2.68	3.50 Betfair	28.6%	+8.8
Total goals	Over 1.5	85.6%	1.17	1.18 Betano	84.7%	+0.8
Total goals	Under 1.5	14.4%	6.93	6.00 Betfair	16.7%	-2.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	65.6%	1.52	1.55 Betano	64.5%	+1.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	34.4%	2.91	2.70 Betano	37.0%	-2.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	43.7%	2.29	2.50 Bet365	40.0%	+3.7
Total goals	Under 3.5	56.3%	1.78	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	-3.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	67.0%	1.49	1.47 Betano	68.0%	-1.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	33.0%	3.03	2.75 Betfair	36.4%	-3.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Galatasaray v Fenerbahçe: too close to call

Our model makes Galatasaray 39% to win this Süper Lig fixture, with the draw at 24% and Fenerbahçe at 37%. The goal projection is 1.71 for Galatasaray against 1.67 for Fenerbahçe — almost nothing to Galatasaray on expected output. A combined 3.38 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 66% and both teams to score at 67%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 2-1 8%; 1-2 8%; 2-2 7%; 1-0 5%

This season

Season records for Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe
Galatasaray		Fenerbahçe
11	Played	11
9-1-1	W-D-L	6-1-4
2.55	Pts / game	1.73
2.45	Goals for / game	2.64
1.36	Goals against / game	0.91
82%	Over 2.5	82%
55%	BTTS	45%
36%	Clean sheets	55%
9%	Failed to score	9%
5-1-0	Home record	3-0-2
4-0-1	Away record	3-1-2
W5	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Galatasaray · Fenerbahçe

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
19.8	Shots	15.5
7.4	Shots on target	6.7
8.0	Corners	4.5
2.20	Cards	2.00
10.2	Fouls	12.0
61	Possession %	55
2.12	xG	2.19
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.0	Shots	17.7
3.6	Shots on target	6.3
4.6	Corners	6.0
2.80	Cards	1.60
13.6	Fouls	9.3
39	Possession %	45
0.91	xG	1.45
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Galatasaray	Metric	Fenerbahçe
1.60	Goals scored	3.20 (better)
2.40	Goals conceded	1.20 (better)
1.43	Expected goals (xG)	2.91 (better)
	Big chances
5.25	Shots on target	7.25 (better)
15.25	Total shots	19.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
6.00	Corners	6.00
53.8	Possession %	54.8 (better)
417	Passes	483 (better)
	Tackles
13.00	Fouls	10.50 (better)
2.75 (better)	Offsides	3.50
	Throw-ins
1.50	Yellow cards	1.33 (better)
1.00	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Galatasaray wins: 2
Draws: 1
Fenerbahçe wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.67
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Süper Lig table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Galatasaray	11	9	1	1	+12	28	Galatasaray won 5 of the last 5
2	Trabzonspor	11	8	1	2	+18	25	Trabzonspor won 5 of the last 5
3	Amed	11	7	2	2	+13	23	Amed won 3 of the last 5
4	Beşiktaş	11	7	1	3	+11	22	Beşiktaş won 3 of the last 5
5	Kasımpaşa	11	5	5	1	+6	20	Kasımpaşa won 3 of the last 5
6	Fenerbahçe	11	6	1	4	+19	19	Fenerbahçe won 3 of the last 5
7	Kocaelispor	11	6	1	4	+4	19	Kocaelispor won 2 of the last 5
8	Başakşehir	11	5	2	4	+2	17	Başakşehir won 3 of the last 5
9	Çorum FK	11	5	1	5	0	16	Çorum FK won 3 of the last 5
10	Göztepe	11	4	3	4	+3	15	Göztepe won 4 of the last 5
11	Rizespor	11	4	2	5	-3	14	Rizespor won 1 of the last 5
12	Erzurumspor FK	11	4	2	5	-7	14	Erzurumspor FK won 2 of the last 5
13	Alanyaspor	11	3	3	5	-9	12	Alanyaspor won 0 of the last 5
14	Gençlerbirliği S.K.	11	3	2	6	-9	11	Gençlerbirliği S.K. won 1 of the last 5
15	Konyaspor	11	2	2	7	-8	8	Konyaspor won 1 of the last 5
16	Gaziantep FK	11	2	2	7	-10	8	Gaziantep FK won 0 of the last 5
17	Samsunspor	11	2	1	8	-15	7	Samsunspor won 1 of the last 5
18	Eyüpspor	11	1	0	10	-27	3	Eyüpspor won 0 of the last 5