La Liga · Review
La Liga matchweek 11 review: results, xG and what the model said
Every La Liga result from matchweek 11 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.
Published , updated · Written from the site’s own data
La Liga, matchweek 11 (30 October – 2 November 2026), is complete: ten matches, 30 goals (3.00 a game), six home wins, no draws and four away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in seven of the ten and both teams scored in five.
The result the model rated least likely was Espanyol's win in Villarreal v Espanyol (0–1), which it had at 21%; the one it rated most likely was Barcelona's win in Barcelona v Alaves (6–1), at 78%.
After the round, Barcelona lead on 30 points, two points clear of Atletico Madrid, with Real Madrid third on 27. The bottom three are Levante (10), Valencia (9), Malaga (5).
Match by match
Villarreal 0–1 EspanyolFri 30 Oct, 20:00
Before kick-off the model had Villarreal 56%, the draw 24% and Espanyol 21%, with Villarreal favoured; it put Espanyol winning at 21%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.96–0.27: Villarreal created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, Villarreal to win at 56%, did not come in. Pick published: Villarreal -0.5 at 1.60 (free pick) — lost.
Levante 0–2 Atletico MadridSat 31 Oct, 13:00
Before kick-off the model had Levante 25%, the draw 24% and Atletico Madrid 50%, so Atletico Madrid winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.33–0.63: Levante created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, Atletico Madrid to win at 50%, came in.
Rayo Vallecano 3–0 Celta VigoSat 31 Oct, 15:15
Before kick-off the model had Rayo Vallecano 41%, the draw 28% and Celta Vigo 31%, so Rayo Vallecano winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.13–1.26: an even contest on chances. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 55%, did not come in.
Real Betis 2–1 MalagaSat 31 Oct, 17:30
Before kick-off the model had Real Betis 60%, the draw 21% and Malaga 19%, so Real Betis winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score, 2-1, was the one that came. Expected goals were 1.84–1.18: Real Betis created the better chances. The headline call, Real Betis to win at 60%, came in.
Barcelona 6–1 AlavesSat 31 Oct, 20:00
Before kick-off the model had Barcelona 78%, the draw 13% and Alaves 9%, so Barcelona winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 3-1. Expected goals were 3.30–0.78: Barcelona created the better chances. The headline call, Barcelona to win at 78%, came in.
Getafe 3–1 SevillaSun 1 Nov, 13:00
Before kick-off the model had Getafe 41%, the draw 29% and Sevilla 30%, so Getafe winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.62–0.74: Getafe created the better chances. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 56%, did not come in.
Racing Santander 0–3 Real MadridSun 1 Nov, 15:15
Before kick-off the model had Racing Santander 17%, the draw 17% and Real Madrid 66%, so Real Madrid winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-2. Expected goals were 1.05–3.41: Real Madrid created the better chances. The headline call, Real Madrid to win at 66%, came in.
Elche 0–1 ValenciaSun 1 Nov, 17:30
Before kick-off the model had Elche 46%, the draw 26% and Valencia 28%, with Elche favoured; it put Valencia winning at 28%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.33–0.96: Elche created the better chances. The headline call, Elche to win at 46%, did not come in. Pick published: Valencia +0.25 at 2.36 (free pick) — won.
Athletic Club 2–1 Real SociedadSun 1 Nov, 20:00
Before kick-off the model had Athletic Club 33%, the draw 24% and Real Sociedad 43%, with Real Sociedad favoured; it put Athletic Club winning at 33%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 3.12–1.17: Athletic Club created the better chances. The headline call, over 1.5 goals at 83%, came in.
Deportivo La Coruna 2–1 OsasunaMon 2 Nov, 20:00
Before kick-off the model had Deportivo La Coruna 51%, the draw 25% and Osasuna 24%, so Deportivo La Coruna winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.39–1.16: Deportivo La Coruna created the better chances. The headline call, Deportivo La Coruna to win at 51%, came in. Pick published: Over 2.5 at 2.22 (free pick) — won.
The numbers this season
La Liga has averaged 3.01 goals a game over 109 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 58% of them and both sides scoring in 58%. Home sides have won 46% of matches, 25% have been drawn and away sides have won 29%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.
About these figures
The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.
The results
Each result with the headline call the model published and whether it came in.
La Liga10Most likely prediction
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Probabilities are statistical opinion, not advice, and no outcome is certain. Past predictions don’t indicate future results. Over 18s only; never stake money you cannot afford to lose.