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La Liga predictions: matchweek 11 (30 October – 2 November 2026)

Every La Liga match in matchweek 11 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published 23 Oct 2026, updated 26 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

La Liga, matchweek 11: ten matches, played across 30 October – 2 November 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.

The strongest favourite is Barcelona, 78% to beat Alaves at home; the most evenly balanced game is Athletic Club v Real Sociedad (Athletic Club 33%, draw 24%, Real Sociedad 43%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Racing Santander v Real Madrid, at 4.38; the tightest looks Getafe v Sevilla, at 2.42.

Going into the round, Barcelona lead on 27 points, two points clear of Atletico Madrid, with Real Madrid third on 24. The bottom three are Espanyol (8), Valencia (6), Malaga (5).

The numbers this season

La Liga has averaged 3.02 goals a game over 98 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 57% of them and both sides scoring in 59%. Home sides have won 44% of matches, 28% have been drawn and away sides have won 29%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

Match by match

Villarreal v EspanyolFri 30 Oct, 20:00

Our model makes Villarreal 56%, the draw 24% and Espanyol 21%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 2.93 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 56%. The headline call is Villarreal to win at 56%. Villarreal are 10th on 12 points from 10; Espanyol are 18th on 8 points from 10. Villarreal have won three of their last five; Espanyol are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats). Villarreal have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Levante v Atletico MadridSat 31 Oct, 13:00

Our model makes Levante 25%, the draw 24% and Atletico Madrid 50%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.05 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 60%. The headline call is Atletico Madrid to win at 50%. Levante are 14th on 10 points from 10; Atletico Madrid are 2nd on 25 points from 10. Levante have won one of their last five; Atletico Madrid have won all of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Rayo Vallecano v Celta VigoSat 31 Oct, 15:15

Our model makes Rayo Vallecano 41%, the draw 28% and Celta Vigo 31%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.47 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 51%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 55%. Rayo Vallecano are 16th on 9 points from 9; Celta Vigo are 9th on 12 points from 10. Rayo Vallecano have won one of their last five; Celta Vigo are unbeaten in five (two wins, three draws). One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Real Betis v MalagaSat 31 Oct, 17:30

Our model makes Real Betis 60%, the draw 21% and Malaga 19%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (10%), 3.34 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is Real Betis to win at 60%. Real Betis are 4th on 20 points from 10; Malaga are 20th on 5 points from 10. Real Betis have won two of their last five; Malaga are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats).

Barcelona v AlavesSat 31 Oct, 20:00

Our model makes Barcelona 78%, the draw 13% and Alaves 9%. The likeliest score is 3-1 (8%), 4.09 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is Barcelona to win at 78%. Barcelona are 1st on 27 points from 10; Alaves are 7th on 12 points from 10. Barcelona have won four of their last five; Alaves are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats). The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Barcelona wins, draws and Alaves wins.

Getafe v SevillaSun 1 Nov, 13:00

Our model makes Getafe 41%, the draw 29% and Sevilla 30%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.42 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 56%. Getafe are 17th on 9 points from 10; Sevilla are 6th on 14 points from 9. Getafe have won one of their last five; Sevilla have won two of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Getafe wins, draws and Sevilla wins.

Racing Santander v Real MadridSun 1 Nov, 15:15

Our model makes Racing Santander 17%, the draw 17% and Real Madrid 66%. The likeliest score is 1-2 (8%), 4.38 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 81%, both teams to score 73%. The headline call is Real Madrid to win at 66%. Racing Santander are 13th on 11 points from 10; Real Madrid are 3rd on 24 points from 10. Racing Santander have won one of their last five; Real Madrid have won four of their last five.

Elche v ValenciaSun 1 Nov, 17:30

Our model makes Elche 46%, the draw 26% and Valencia 28%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.74 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%. The headline call is Elche to win at 46%. Elche are 15th on 10 points from 10; Valencia are 19th on 6 points from 10. Elche have won two of their last five; Valencia have won one of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Athletic Club v Real SociedadSun 1 Nov, 20:00

Our model makes Athletic Club 33%, the draw 24% and Real Sociedad 43%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.20 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 64%. The headline call is over 1.5 goals at 83%. Athletic Club are 8th on 12 points from 9; Real Sociedad are 5th on 19 points from 10. Athletic Club have won one of their last five; Real Sociedad have won four of their last five. Real Sociedad have won three of the sides' last four meetings.

Deportivo La Coruna v OsasunaMon 2 Nov, 20:00

Our model makes Deportivo La Coruna 51%, the draw 25% and Osasuna 24%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.84 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 56%. The headline call is Deportivo La Coruna to win at 51%. Deportivo La Coruna are 11th on 11 points from 10; Osasuna are 12th on 11 points from 9. Deportivo La Coruna are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats); Osasuna have won one of their last five.

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

The model has published seven picks on this round so far, where the best available price stands clear of its own probability and the market's consensus together. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.