Elche v Valencia

18th0–119th

17:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Elche		Valencia
16	Shots	5
3	Shots on target	3
6	Corners	2
9	Fouls	15
3	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	6
616	Passes	280
69%	Possession %	31%
1.33	xG	0.96

Over 1.5: 76%
Over 2.5: 52%
Over 3.5: 29%
Both score: 55%

Model pick: Elche 46%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.57 – 1.17

Advised bets

Won

Free pick

Valencia +0.25

2.36Marathonbet · fair 2.12 · qualifies at 2.19+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Valencia +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 2.36 with Marathonbet — Valencia starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.

Our model puts the chance at 47% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 47%; we judge it at 47%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.12. The offered 2.36 implies only 42%, so the price is 11.2% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Elche 1.57, Valencia 1.17.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Elche	45.9%	2.18	2.57 Betano	38.9%	+7.0
Match result	Draw	26.2%	3.81	3.50 BetVictor	28.6%	-2.4
Match result	Valencia	27.8%	3.59	3.20 Bet365	31.3%	-3.4
Total goals	Over 1.5	76.4%	1.31	1.32 Betano	75.8%	+0.7
Total goals	Under 1.5	23.6%	4.24	3.50 Bet365	28.6%	-5.0
Total goals	Over 2.5	51.6%	1.94	1.98 Betano	50.5%	+1.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	48.4%	2.06	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	-3.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	29.4%	3.40	3.40 Bet365	29.4%	+0.0
Total goals	Under 3.5	70.6%	1.42	1.34 Betano	74.6%	-4.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	55.2%	1.81	1.75 Bet365	57.1%	-2.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	44.8%	2.23	2.15 Betfair	46.5%	-1.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Elche favoured against Valencia

Our model makes Elche 46% to win this La Liga fixture, with the draw at 26% and Valencia at 28%. The goal projection is 1.57 for Elche against 1.17 for Valencia — a clear edge to Elche on expected output. A combined 2.74 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 55%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-0 10%; 2-1 9%; 2-0 8%; 0-0 7%

This season

Season records for Elche and Valencia
Elche		Valencia
12	Played	12
2-4-6	W-D-L	2-3-7
0.83	Pts / game	0.75
1.17	Goals for / game	0.67
1.67	Goals against / game	1.67
50%	Over 2.5	50%
50%	BTTS	33%
25%	Clean sheets	33%
42%	Failed to score	50%
0-1-5	Home record	0-2-5
2-3-1	Away record	2-1-2
L2	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Elche · Valencia

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.1	Shots	10.9
3.6	Shots on target	3.3
4.7	Corners	3.9
3.17	Cards	3.33
12.6	Fouls	15.1
51	Possession %	42
1.25	xG	1.11
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.9	Shots	17.0
4.6	Shots on target	5.6
4.7	Corners	5.9
2.00	Cards	3.05
13.1	Fouls	10.1
49	Possession %	58
1.69	xG	1.56
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Elche	Metric	Valencia
1.60 (better)	Goals scored	1.20
0.80 (better)	Goals conceded	1.40
1.22	Expected goals (xG)	1.32 (better)
	Big chances
4.20 (better)	Shots on target	3.60
11.20	Total shots	13.40 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.60	Corners	4.60 (better)
48.4 (better)	Possession %	46.4
450 (better)	Passes	404
	Tackles
13.40	Fouls	13.00 (better)
1.00 (better)	Offsides	2.20
	Throw-ins
2.80 (better)	Yellow cards	3.00
0.25 (better)	Red cards	0.33

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Elche wins: 1
Draws: 1
Valencia wins: 1
Goals / game: 1.33
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 33%

Elche v Valencia0–12026-11-01
Elche v Valencia1–02026-04-11
Valencia v Elche1–12026-01-10

La Liga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Barcelona	12	11	0	1	+35	33	Barcelona won 4 of the last 5
2	Real Madrid	12	10	0	2	+21	30	Real Madrid won 5 of the last 5
3	Atletico Madrid	12	9	1	2	+13	28	Atletico Madrid won 4 of the last 5
4	Real Betis	12	8	2	2	+5	26	Real Betis won 3 of the last 5
5	Real Sociedad	12	7	1	4	+1	22	Real Sociedad won 4 of the last 5
6	Sevilla	12	5	3	4	-2	18	Sevilla won 1 of the last 5
7	Athletic Club	11	4	4	3	+4	16	Athletic Club won 2 of the last 5
8	Villarreal	12	4	3	5	+2	15	Villarreal won 2 of the last 5
9	Deportivo La Coruna	12	3	6	3	+1	15	Deportivo La Coruna won 1 of the last 5
10	Racing Santander	12	4	2	6	-13	14	Racing Santander won 2 of the last 5
11	Celta Vigo	12	2	7	3	0	13	Celta Vigo won 1 of the last 5
12	Alaves	12	3	4	5	-2	13	Alaves won 0 of the last 5
13	Espanyol	12	3	3	6	-1	12	Espanyol won 1 of the last 5
14	Rayo Vallecano	11	3	3	5	-6	12	Rayo Vallecano won 1 of the last 5
15	Getafe	12	3	3	6	-10	12	Getafe won 1 of the last 5
16	Osasuna	12	3	3	6	-11	12	Osasuna won 1 of the last 5
17	Levante	12	2	5	5	-5	11	Levante won 1 of the last 5
18	Elche	12	2	4	6	-6	10	Elche won 1 of the last 5
19	Valencia	12	2	3	7	-12	9	Valencia won 1 of the last 5
20	Malaga	12	0	5	7	-14	5	Malaga won 0 of the last 5