Real Betis v Malaga

4th2–120th

17:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Real Betis		Malaga
24	Shots	10
6	Shots on target	5
10	Corners	3
10	Fouls	15
2	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
3	Offsides	3
615	Passes	432
59%	Possession %	41%
1.84	xG	1.18

Over 1.5: 85%
Over 2.5: 65%
Over 3.5: 43%
Both score: 61%

Model pick: Real Betis 60%
Likely score: 2-1 10%
Expected goals: 2.18 – 1.17

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Under 1.5	14.9%	6.71	6.00 Betfair	16.7%	-1.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	64.9%	1.54	1.50 Betano	66.7%	-1.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	35.1%	2.85	2.75 Bet365	36.4%	-1.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	42.9%	2.33	2.30 Bet365	43.5%	-0.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	57.1%	1.75	1.70 Betano	58.8%	-1.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	61.5%	1.63	1.83 Betano	54.6%	+6.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	38.5%	2.60	2.00 William Hill	50.0%	-11.5
Match result	Real Betis	59.9%	1.67	1.36 Dafabet	73.5%	-13.6
Match result	Draw	21.0%	4.77	5.80 Betano	17.2%	+3.7
Match result	Malaga	19.1%	5.24	9.50 BetVictor	10.5%	+8.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	85.1%	1.18	1.17 Bet365	85.5%	-0.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Real Betis favoured against Malaga

Our model makes Real Betis 60% to win this La Liga fixture, with the draw at 21% and Malaga at 19%. The goal projection is 2.18 for Real Betis against 1.17 for Malaga — a commanding edge to Real Betis on expected output. A combined 3.34 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 65% and both teams to score at 61%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-1 10%; 1-1 9%; 2-0 8%; 1-0 7%; 3-1 7%

This season

Season records for Real Betis and Malaga
Real Betis		Malaga
12	Played	12
8-2-2	W-D-L	0-5-7
2.17	Pts / game	0.42
1.67	Goals for / game	0.75
1.25	Goals against / game	1.92
42%	Over 2.5	42%
50%	BTTS	67%
50%	Clean sheets	8%
8%	Failed to score	33%
5-0-1	Home record	0-3-3
3-2-1	Away record	0-2-4
W2	Streak	L2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Real Betis · Malaga

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
17.8	Shots	11.6
6.6	Shots on target	4.9
5.6	Corners	5.1
1.42	Cards	2.77
10.0	Fouls	12.1
53	Possession %	46
1.94	xG	0.99
8 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.8	Shots	18.4
5.3	Shots on target	6.3
5.6	Corners	5.7
2.92	Cards	2.57
12.1	Fouls	11.3
48	Possession %	54
1.58	xG	1.96
8 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (4 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Real Betis	Metric	Malaga
2.75 (better)	Goals scored	1.00
2.25	Goals conceded	2.20 (better)
2.02 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.71
	Big chances
7.25 (better)	Shots on target	4.20
16.50 (better)	Total shots	11.00
	Touches in opp. box
4.75	Corners	5.40 (better)
46.5	Possession %	46.6 (better)
458 (better)	Passes	438
	Tackles
10.75 (better)	Fouls	11.80
1.00 (better)	Offsides	1.60
	Throw-ins
2.50 (better)	Yellow cards	2.60
0.33	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Real Betis wins: 1
Draws: 0
Malaga wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Real Betis v Malaga2–12026-10-31

La Liga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Barcelona	12	11	0	1	+35	33	Barcelona won 4 of the last 5
2	Real Madrid	12	10	0	2	+21	30	Real Madrid won 5 of the last 5
3	Atletico Madrid	12	9	1	2	+13	28	Atletico Madrid won 4 of the last 5
4	Real Betis	12	8	2	2	+5	26	Real Betis won 3 of the last 5
5	Real Sociedad	12	7	1	4	+1	22	Real Sociedad won 4 of the last 5
6	Sevilla	12	5	3	4	-2	18	Sevilla won 1 of the last 5
7	Athletic Club	11	4	4	3	+4	16	Athletic Club won 2 of the last 5
8	Villarreal	12	4	3	5	+2	15	Villarreal won 2 of the last 5
9	Deportivo La Coruna	12	3	6	3	+1	15	Deportivo La Coruna won 1 of the last 5
10	Racing Santander	12	4	2	6	-13	14	Racing Santander won 2 of the last 5
11	Celta Vigo	12	2	7	3	0	13	Celta Vigo won 1 of the last 5
12	Alaves	12	3	4	5	-2	13	Alaves won 0 of the last 5
13	Espanyol	12	3	3	6	-1	12	Espanyol won 1 of the last 5
14	Rayo Vallecano	11	3	3	5	-6	12	Rayo Vallecano won 1 of the last 5
15	Getafe	12	3	3	6	-10	12	Getafe won 1 of the last 5
16	Osasuna	12	3	3	6	-11	12	Osasuna won 1 of the last 5
17	Levante	12	2	5	5	-5	11	Levante won 1 of the last 5
18	Elche	12	2	4	6	-6	10	Elche won 1 of the last 5
19	Valencia	12	2	3	7	-12	9	Valencia won 1 of the last 5
20	Malaga	12	0	5	7	-14	5	Malaga won 0 of the last 5