La Liga · Review

La Liga matchweek 12 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every La Liga result from matchweek 12 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 9 Nov 2026, updated 9 Nov 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

La Liga, matchweek 12 (6–8 November 2026), is complete: ten matches, 16 goals (1.60 a game), two home wins, four draws and four away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in three of the ten and both teams scored in three.

The result the model rated least likely was the draw in Osasuna v Athletic Club (1–1), which it had at 25%; the one it rated most likely was Real Madrid's win in Valencia v Real Madrid (0–3), at 61%.

After the round, Barcelona lead on 33 points, three points clear of Real Madrid, with Atletico Madrid third on 28. The bottom three are Elche (10), Valencia (9), Malaga (5).

Match by match

Sevilla 0–0 AlavesFri 6 Nov, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Sevilla 40%, the draw 26% and Alaves 34%, with Sevilla favoured; it put the draw at 26%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.66–0.60: Sevilla created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 59%, did not come in. Picks published: Sevilla -0.5 at 2.08 (free pick) — lost; Over 2.5 at 2.22 — lost.

Malaga 1–2 Racing SantanderSat 7 Nov, 13:00

Before kick-off the model had Malaga 48%, the draw 22% and Racing Santander 31%, with Malaga favoured; it put Racing Santander winning at 31%. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 2.08–2.44: Racing Santander created the better chances. The headline call, over 3.5 goals at 52%, did not come in. Pick published: Malaga -0.25 at 2.05 — lost.

Espanyol 0–0 Deportivo La CorunaSat 7 Nov, 15:15

Before kick-off the model had Espanyol 33%, the draw 29% and Deportivo La Coruna 38%, with Deportivo La Coruna favoured; it put the draw at 29%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.72–0.32: Espanyol created the better chances. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 56%, came in.

Osasuna 1–1 Athletic ClubSat 7 Nov, 17:30

Before kick-off the model had Osasuna 36%, the draw 25% and Athletic Club 38%, with Athletic Club favoured; it put the draw at 25%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. Expected goals were 0.73–2.33: Athletic Club created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 61%, came in.

Valencia 0–3 Real MadridSat 7 Nov, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Valencia 18%, the draw 22% and Real Madrid 61%, so Real Madrid winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.26–2.39: Real Madrid created the better chances. The headline call, Real Madrid to win at 61%, came in.

Elche 0–2 Real BetisSun 8 Nov, 13:00

Before kick-off the model had Elche 34%, the draw 25% and Real Betis 41%, so Real Betis winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.25–2.05: Real Betis created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 63%, did not come in.

Real Sociedad 1–0 Rayo VallecanoSun 8 Nov, 15:15

Before kick-off the model had Real Sociedad 55%, the draw 22% and Rayo Vallecano 23%, so Real Sociedad winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 1.70–1.39: Real Sociedad created the better chances. The headline call, over 3.5 goals at 46%, did not come in.

Celta Vigo 0–0 LevanteSun 8 Nov, 17:30

Before kick-off the model had Celta Vigo 45%, the draw 27% and Levante 27%, with Celta Vigo favoured; it put the draw at 27%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 3.24–0.34: Celta Vigo created the better chances. The headline call, Celta Vigo to win at 45%, did not come in. Pick published: Levante 0 at 3.45 (free pick) — void.

Villarreal 2–0 GetafeSun 8 Nov, 17:30

Before kick-off the model had Villarreal 56%, the draw 24% and Getafe 20%, so Villarreal winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.38–0.68: Villarreal created the better chances. The headline call, Villarreal to win at 56%, came in. Pick published: Villarreal -0.75 at 1.60 — won.

Atletico Madrid 1–2 BarcelonaSun 8 Nov, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Atletico Madrid 30%, the draw 23% and Barcelona 47%, so Barcelona winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.71–1.62: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Barcelona to win at 47%, came in.

The numbers this season

La Liga has averaged 2.89 goals a game over 119 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 55% of them and both sides scoring in 55%. Home sides have won 44% of matches, 26% have been drawn and away sides have won 30%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.