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La Liga predictions: matchweek 12 (6–8 November 2026)

Every La Liga match in matchweek 12 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published 30 Oct 2026, updated 1 Nov 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

La Liga, matchweek 12: ten matches, played across 6–8 November 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.

The strongest favourite is Real Madrid, 61% to beat Valencia away; the most evenly balanced game is Osasuna v Athletic Club (Osasuna 36%, draw 25%, Athletic Club 38%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Malaga v Racing Santander, at 3.78; the tightest looks Espanyol v Deportivo La Coruna, at 2.44.

Going into the round, Barcelona lead on 30 points, two points clear of Atletico Madrid, with Real Madrid third on 24. The bottom three are Levante (10), Valencia (6), Malaga (5).

The numbers this season

La Liga has averaged 3.03 goals a game over 105 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 57% of them and both sides scoring in 58%. Home sides have won 46% of matches, 26% have been drawn and away sides have won 29%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

Match by match

Sevilla v AlavesFri 6 Nov, 20:00

Our model makes Sevilla 40%, the draw 26% and Alaves 34%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.90 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 59%. The headline call is both teams to score at 59%. Sevilla are 6th on 17 points from 11; Alaves are 10th on 12 points from 11. Sevilla have won one of their last five; Alaves are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats). One of the sides' last three meetings was drawn.

Malaga v Racing SantanderSat 7 Nov, 13:00

Our model makes Malaga 48%, the draw 22% and Racing Santander 31%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (8%), 3.78 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 72%. The headline call is over 3.5 goals at 52%. Malaga are 20th on 5 points from 11; Racing Santander are 16th on 11 points from 10. Malaga are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats); Racing Santander have won one of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Espanyol v Deportivo La CorunaSat 7 Nov, 15:15

Our model makes Espanyol 33%, the draw 29% and Deportivo La Coruna 38%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.44 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 50%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 56%. Espanyol are 14th on 11 points from 11; Deportivo La Coruna are 13th on 11 points from 10. Espanyol have won one of their last five; Deportivo La Coruna are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats).

Osasuna v Athletic ClubSat 7 Nov, 17:30

Our model makes Osasuna 36%, the draw 25% and Athletic Club 38%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 3.02 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is over 1.5 goals at 81%. Osasuna are 15th on 11 points from 10; Athletic Club are 7th on 12 points from 9. Osasuna have won one of their last five; Athletic Club have won one of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Valencia v Real MadridSat 7 Nov, 20:00

Our model makes Valencia 18%, the draw 22% and Real Madrid 61%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.07 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 56%. The headline call is Real Madrid to win at 61%. Valencia are 19th on 6 points from 10; Real Madrid are 3rd on 24 points from 10. Valencia have won one of their last five; Real Madrid have won four of their last five. Real Madrid have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Elche v Real BetisSun 8 Nov, 13:00

Our model makes Elche 34%, the draw 25% and Real Betis 41%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.12 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 63%. The headline call is over 1.5 goals at 82%. Elche are 17th on 10 points from 10; Real Betis are 4th on 23 points from 11. Elche have won two of their last five; Real Betis have won two of their last five. Real Betis have won two of the sides' last three meetings.

Real Sociedad v Rayo VallecanoSun 8 Nov, 15:15

Our model makes Real Sociedad 55%, the draw 22% and Rayo Vallecano 23%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (9%), 3.49 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 66%. The headline call is over 2.5 goals at 68%. Real Sociedad are 5th on 19 points from 10; Rayo Vallecano are 11th on 12 points from 10. Real Sociedad have won four of their last five; Rayo Vallecano have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Celta Vigo v LevanteSun 8 Nov, 17:30

Our model makes Celta Vigo 45%, the draw 27% and Levante 27%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.58 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 52%. The headline call is Celta Vigo to win at 45%. Celta Vigo are 9th on 12 points from 11; Levante are 18th on 10 points from 11. Celta Vigo have won two of their last five; Levante have won one of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Celta Vigo wins, draws and Levante wins.

Villarreal v GetafeSun 8 Nov, 17:30

Our model makes Villarreal 56%, the draw 24% and Getafe 20%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 2.81 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 53%. The headline call is Villarreal to win at 56%. Villarreal are 8th on 12 points from 11; Getafe are 12th on 12 points from 11. Villarreal have won two of their last five; Getafe have won two of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Villarreal wins, draws and Getafe wins.

Atletico Madrid v BarcelonaSun 8 Nov, 20:00

Our model makes Atletico Madrid 30%, the draw 23% and Barcelona 47%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.42 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 67%. The headline call is Barcelona to win at 47%. Atletico Madrid are 2nd on 28 points from 11; Barcelona are 1st on 30 points from 11. Atletico Madrid have won all of their last five; Barcelona have won four of their last five. Barcelona have won four of the sides' last six meetings.

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

The model has published nine picks on this round so far, where the best available price stands clear of its own probability and the market's consensus together. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.