La Liga · Review

La Liga matchweek 9 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every La Liga result from matchweek 9 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 20 Oct 2026, updated 20 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

La Liga, matchweek 9 (16–19 October 2026), is complete: ten matches, 29 goals (2.90 a game), three home wins, four draws and three away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in four of the ten and both teams scored in six.

The result the model rated least likely was the draw in Villarreal v Elche (0–0), which it had at 20%; the one it rated most likely was Real Madrid's win in Real Madrid v Sevilla (4–1), at 72%.

After the round, Barcelona lead on 27 points, five points clear of Atletico Madrid, with Real Madrid third on 21. The bottom three are Elche (7), Valencia (6), Malaga (4).

Match by match

Deportivo La Coruna 1–1 LevanteFri 16 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Deportivo La Coruna 53%, the draw 24% and Levante 23%, with Deportivo La Coruna favoured; it put the draw at 24%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. Expected goals were 1.15–0.85: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Deportivo La Coruna to win at 53%, did not come in. Pick published: Over 3.5 at 3.40 (free pick) — lost.

Espanyol 0–1 Atletico MadridSat 17 Oct, 13:00

Before kick-off the model had Espanyol 26%, the draw 25% and Atletico Madrid 49%, so Atletico Madrid winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.51–1.47: Atletico Madrid created the better chances. The headline call, Atletico Madrid to win at 49%, came in.

Villarreal 0–0 ElcheSat 17 Oct, 15:15

Before kick-off the model had Villarreal 57%, the draw 20% and Elche 22%, with Villarreal favoured; it put the draw at 20%. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 2.23–0.31: Villarreal created the better chances. The headline call, over 2.5 goals at 71%, did not come in.

Real Betis 2–5 BarcelonaSat 17 Oct, 17:30

Before kick-off the model had Real Betis 24%, the draw 22% and Barcelona 55%, so Barcelona winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-2. Expected goals were 1.27–3.13: Barcelona created the better chances. The headline call, Barcelona to win at 55%, came in.

Valencia 0–0 Athletic ClubSat 17 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Valencia 41%, the draw 28% and Athletic Club 31%, with Valencia favoured; it put the draw at 28%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.49–0.65: Valencia created the better chances. The headline call, Valencia to win at 41%, did not come in.

Osasuna 2–0 Racing SantanderSun 18 Oct, 13:00

Before kick-off the model had Osasuna 42%, the draw 22% and Racing Santander 36%, so Osasuna winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 3.65–0.28: Osasuna created the better chances. The headline call, over 2.5 goals at 75%, did not come in. Pick published: Racing Santander 0 at 3.00 — lost.

Celta Vigo 2–1 AlavesSun 18 Oct, 15:15

Before kick-off the model had Celta Vigo 44%, the draw 27% and Alaves 29%, so Celta Vigo winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.97–1.06: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Celta Vigo to win at 44%, came in.

Malaga 2–5 Real SociedadSun 18 Oct, 17:30

Before kick-off the model had Malaga 45%, the draw 24% and Real Sociedad 31%, with Malaga favoured; it put Real Sociedad winning at 31%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.28–2.46: Real Sociedad created the better chances. The headline call, over 1.5 goals at 85%, came in. Pick published: Malaga 0 at 2.31 — lost.

Real Madrid 4–1 SevillaSun 18 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Real Madrid 72%, the draw 17% and Sevilla 11%, so Real Madrid winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-0. Expected goals were 2.36–0.81: Real Madrid created the better chances. The headline call, Real Madrid to win at 72%, came in.

Getafe 1–1 Rayo VallecanoMon 19 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Getafe 36%, the draw 31% and Rayo Vallecano 33%, with Getafe favoured; it put the draw at 31%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. Expected goals were 0.61–2.26: Rayo Vallecano created the better chances. The headline call, under 3.5 goals at 83%, came in. Pick published: Getafe -0.25 at 2.38 (free pick) — half lost.

The numbers this season

La Liga has averaged 3.07 goals a game over 88 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 56% of them and both sides scoring in 59%. Home sides have won 43% of matches, 28% have been drawn and away sides have won 28%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.