La Liga · Review

La Liga matchweek 10 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every La Liga result from matchweek 10 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 27 Oct 2026, updated 27 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

La Liga, matchweek 10 (23–26 October 2026), is complete: ten matches, 24 goals (2.40 a game), five home wins, two draws and three away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in six of the ten and both teams scored in five.

The result the model rated least likely was Real Madrid's win in Barcelona v Real Madrid (1–2), which it had at 22%; the one it rated most likely was Atletico Madrid's win in Atletico Madrid v Deportivo La Coruna (1–0), at 58%.

After the round, Barcelona lead on 27 points, two points clear of Atletico Madrid, with Real Madrid third on 24. The bottom three are Espanyol (8), Valencia (6), Malaga (5).

Match by match

Alaves 1–1 MalagaFri 23 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Alaves 48%, the draw 25% and Malaga 27%, with Alaves favoured; it put the draw at 25%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. Expected goals were 1.55–0.49: Alaves created the better chances. The headline call, over 1.5 goals at 80%, came in. Pick published: Over 2.5 at 2.10 — lost.

Rayo Vallecano 0–3 ElcheSat 24 Oct, 13:00

Before kick-off the model had Rayo Vallecano 51%, the draw 24% and Elche 24%, with Rayo Vallecano favoured; it put Elche winning at 24%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.61–2.63: Elche created the better chances. The headline call, Rayo Vallecano to win at 51%, did not come in.

Racing Santander 2–1 EspanyolSat 24 Oct, 15:15

Before kick-off the model had Racing Santander 49%, the draw 22% and Espanyol 29%, so Racing Santander winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.50–0.62: Racing Santander created the better chances. The headline call, over 2.5 goals at 69%, came in. Picks published: Over 3.5 at 2.80 (free pick) — lost; Racing Santander -0.25 at 2.05 — won.

Valencia 1–2 VillarrealSat 24 Oct, 17:30

Before kick-off the model had Valencia 34%, the draw 25% and Villarreal 41%, so Villarreal winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.17–1.52: Villarreal created the better chances. The headline call, over 1.5 goals at 81%, came in. Pick published: Valencia -0.25 at 2.82 — lost.

Atletico Madrid 1–0 Deportivo La CorunaSat 24 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Atletico Madrid 58%, the draw 23% and Deportivo La Coruna 19%, so Atletico Madrid winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.49–1.73: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Atletico Madrid to win at 58%, came in.

Athletic Club 4–0 GetafeSun 25 Oct, 13:00

Before kick-off the model had Athletic Club 39%, the draw 32% and Getafe 29%, so Athletic Club winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 0-0. Expected goals were 0.77–0.42: Athletic Club created the better chances. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 68%, did not come in. Pick published: Athletic Club -0.75 at 1.82 — won.

Celta Vigo 0–0 Real BetisSun 25 Oct, 15:15

Before kick-off the model had Celta Vigo 37%, the draw 26% and Real Betis 37%, with Real Betis favoured; it put the draw at 26%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.83–1.21: Real Betis created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 57%, did not come in.

Real Sociedad 2–1 LevanteSun 25 Oct, 17:30

Before kick-off the model had Real Sociedad 53%, the draw 22% and Levante 25%, so Real Sociedad winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.30–0.54: Real Sociedad created the better chances. The headline call, over 2.5 goals at 68%, came in.

Barcelona 1–2 Real MadridSun 25 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Barcelona 59%, the draw 20% and Real Madrid 22%, with Barcelona favoured; it put Real Madrid winning at 22%. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 1.27–2.00: Real Madrid created the better chances. The headline call, over 3.5 goals at 54%, did not come in.

Sevilla 2–0 OsasunaMon 26 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Sevilla 47%, the draw 25% and Osasuna 28%, so Sevilla winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.18–0.79: Sevilla created the better chances. The headline call, over 1.5 goals at 81%, came in. Picks published: Over 2.5 at 2.20 (free pick) — lost; Sevilla -0.25 at 1.68 — won.

The numbers this season

La Liga has averaged 3.01 goals a game over 99 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 57% of them and both sides scoring in 59%. Home sides have won 44% of matches, 27% have been drawn and away sides have won 28%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.