Sevilla v 
Osasuna
Match statistics
| Sevilla | Osasuna | |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 0 | Offsides | 1 |
| 405 | Passes | 503 |
| 44% | Possession % | 56% |
| 1.18 | xG | 0.79 |
- Over 1.5
- 81%
- Over 2.5
- 59%
- Over 3.5
- 36%
- Both score
- 61%
- Model pick
- Sevilla 47%
- Likely score
- 1-1 11%
- Expected goals
- 1.74 – 1.30
Advised bets
Lost
Free pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Over 2.5
Why this price?
Back over 2.5 goals at 2.20 with Bet365 — 3 goals or more in the match.
Our model puts the chance at 59% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 44%; we judge it at 50%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.00. The offered 2.20 implies only 45%, so the price is 10.1% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Sevilla 1.74, Osasuna 1.30.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 1 of 5Sevilla -0.25
Why this price?
Back Sevilla -0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.68 with Bet365 — Sevilla must win by more than 0.25 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 54% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 67%; we judge it at 62%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.62. The offered 1.68 implies only 60%, so the price is 3.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.26 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Sevilla 1.74, Osasuna 1.30.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Sevilla | 47.2% | 2.12 | 2.00 Betano | 50.0% | -2.8 |
| Match result | Draw | 24.6% | 4.07 | 3.55 Betano | 28.2% | -3.6 |
| Match result | Osasuna | 28.2% | 3.55 | 4.75 Bet365 | 21.1% | +7.1 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 81.2% | 1.23 | 1.42 Betano | 70.4% | +10.8 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 18.8% | 5.32 | 3.10 Betfair | 32.3% | -13.5 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 58.6% | 1.71 | 2.25 Betano | 44.4% | +14.1 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 41.4% | 2.41 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 36.2% | 2.76 | 4.33 Bet365 | 23.1% | +13.1 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 63.8% | 1.57 | 1.25 Bet365 | 80.0% | -16.2 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 60.5% | 1.65 | 2.02 Betano | 49.5% | +11.0 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 39.5% | 2.53 | 1.83 William Hill | 54.6% | -15.2 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Sevilla favoured against Osasuna
Our model makes Sevilla 47% to win this La Liga fixture, with the draw at 25% and Osasuna at 28%. The goal projection is 1.74 for Sevilla against 1.30 for Osasuna — a clear edge to Sevilla on expected output. A combined 3.04 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 59% and both teams to score at 61%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 11%
- 2-1 9%
- 1-0 8%
- 2-0 7%
- 1-2 7%
This season
| Sevilla | Osasuna | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Played | 12 |
| 5-3-4 | W-D-L | 3-3-6 |
| 1.50 | Pts / game | 1.00 |
| 1.42 | Goals for / game | 1.00 |
| 1.58 | Goals against / game | 1.92 |
| 58% | Over 2.5 | 42% |
| 67% | BTTS | 50% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 25% |
| 8% | Failed to score | 33% |
| 3-1-2 | Home record | 2-3-1 |
| 2-2-2 | Away record | 1-0-5 |
| D1 | Streak | D1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Sevilla · Osasuna
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 12.7 | Shots | 11.7 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.7 | Shots on target | 3.6 |
| 3.3 | Corners | 3.9 |
| 2.76 | Cards | 3.00 |
| 14.3 | Fouls | 15.3 |
| 45 | Possession % | 42 |
| 1.15 | xG | 1.33 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Conceded
| 13.3 | Shots | 18.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Shots on target | 5.6 |
| 3.3 | Corners | 6.1 |
| 1.88 | Cards | 1.43 |
| 12.6 | Fouls | 9.4 |
| 55 | Possession % | 58 |
| 1.57 | xG | 2.02 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Form comparison
| Sevilla | Metric | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| 1.40 (better) | Goals scored | 1.00 |
| 2.60 | Goals conceded | 2.40 (better) |
| 1.04 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.48 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 4.75 (better) | Shots on target | 4.00 |
| 11.75 (better) | Total shots | 11.00 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 2.25 | Corners | 3.60 (better) |
| 39.3 | Possession % | 44.4 (better) |
| 364 | Passes | 374 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 14.25 (better) | Fouls | 15.40 |
| 2.50 | Offsides | 2.25 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.75 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.80 |
| 0.33 | Red cards | 0.00 (better) |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Sevilla wins
- 2
- Draws
- 0
- Osasuna wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 2.00
- Over 2.5
- 33%
- Both score
- 33%
- Sevilla v Osasuna2–02026-10-26
- Osasuna v Sevilla2–12026-04-26
- Sevilla v Osasuna1–02025-11-08
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | +35 | 33 | Barcelona won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | +21 | 30 | Real Madrid won 5 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | +13 | 28 | Atletico Madrid won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | +5 | 26 | Real Betis won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 22 | Real Sociedad won 4 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 18 | Sevilla won 1 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Athletic Club | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | +4 | 16 | Athletic Club won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Villarreal | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | +2 | 15 | Villarreal won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Deportivo La Coruna | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | +1 | 15 | Deportivo La Coruna won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Racing Santander | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -13 | 14 | Racing Santander won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Celta Vigo | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 13 | Celta Vigo won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Alaves | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 13 | Alaves won 0 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Espanyol | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 12 | Espanyol won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Rayo Vallecano | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 | Rayo Vallecano won 1 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Getafe | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 12 | Getafe won 1 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 12 | Osasuna won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Levante | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -5 | 11 | Levante won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Elche | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -6 | 10 | Elche won 1 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Valencia | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -12 | 9 | Valencia won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Malaga | 12 | 0 | 5 | 7 | -14 | 5 | Malaga won 0 of the last 5 |