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La Liga predictions: matchweek 10 (23–26 October 2026)

Every La Liga match in matchweek 10 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published 16 Oct 2026, updated 19 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

La Liga, matchweek 10: ten matches, played across 23–26 October 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.

The strongest favourite is Barcelona, 59% to beat Real Madrid at home; the most evenly balanced game is Celta Vigo v Real Betis (Celta Vigo 37%, draw 26%, Real Betis 37%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Barcelona v Real Madrid, at 3.89; the tightest looks Athletic Club v Getafe, at 2.00.

Going into the round, Barcelona lead on 27 points, five points clear of Atletico Madrid, with Real Madrid third on 21. The bottom three are Elche (7), Valencia (6), Malaga (4).

The numbers this season

La Liga has averaged 3.08 goals a game over 87 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 56% of them and both sides scoring in 59%. Home sides have won 44% of matches, 28% have been drawn and away sides have won 29%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

Match by match

Alaves v MalagaFri 23 Oct, 20:00

Our model makes Alaves 48%, the draw 25% and Malaga 27%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.97 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%. The headline call is over 1.5 goals at 80%. Alaves are 7th on 11 points from 9; Malaga are 20th on 4 points from 9. Alaves are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats); Malaga are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats).

Rayo Vallecano v ElcheSat 24 Oct, 13:00

Our model makes Rayo Vallecano 51%, the draw 24% and Elche 24%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.01 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 59%. The headline call is Rayo Vallecano to win at 51%. Rayo Vallecano are 14th on 8 points from 7; Elche are 18th on 7 points from 9. Rayo Vallecano have won two of their last five; Elche have won one of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Rayo Vallecano wins, draws and Elche wins.

Racing Santander v EspanyolSat 24 Oct, 15:15

Our model makes Racing Santander 49%, the draw 22% and Espanyol 29%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (9%), 3.59 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 69%. The headline call is over 2.5 goals at 69%. Racing Santander are 16th on 8 points from 9; Espanyol are 13th on 8 points from 9. Racing Santander have won one of their last five; Espanyol have won one of their last five.

Valencia v VillarrealSat 24 Oct, 17:30

Our model makes Valencia 34%, the draw 25% and Villarreal 41%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 3.04 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is over 1.5 goals at 81%. Valencia are 19th on 6 points from 9; Villarreal are 12th on 9 points from 9. Valencia have won one of their last five; Villarreal have won two of their last five. Villarreal have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Atletico Madrid v Deportivo La CorunaSat 24 Oct, 20:00

Our model makes Atletico Madrid 58%, the draw 23% and Deportivo La Coruna 19%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 2.97 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 55%. The headline call is Atletico Madrid to win at 58%. Atletico Madrid are 2nd on 22 points from 9; Deportivo La Coruna are 9th on 11 points from 9. Atletico Madrid have won all of their last five; Deportivo La Coruna are without a win in five (three draws, two defeats).

Athletic Club v GetafeSun 25 Oct, 13:00

Our model makes Athletic Club 39%, the draw 32% and Getafe 29%. The likeliest score is 0-0 (14%), 2.00 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 40%. The headline call is under 3.5 goals at 86%. Athletic Club are 11th on 9 points from 7; Getafe are 15th on 8 points from 8. Athletic Club are unbeaten in five (two wins, three draws); Getafe have won one of their last five. Getafe have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Celta Vigo v Real BetisSun 25 Oct, 15:15

Our model makes Celta Vigo 37%, the draw 26% and Real Betis 37%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.80 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%. The headline call is both teams to score at 57%. Celta Vigo are 8th on 11 points from 9; Real Betis are 4th on 19 points from 9. Celta Vigo are unbeaten in five (two wins, three draws); Real Betis have won three of their last five. Two of the sides' last two meetings were drawn.

Real Sociedad v LevanteSun 25 Oct, 17:30

Our model makes Real Sociedad 53%, the draw 22% and Levante 25%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (9%), 3.50 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 67%. The headline call is over 2.5 goals at 68%. Real Sociedad are 5th on 16 points from 9; Levante are 17th on 7 points from 8. Real Sociedad have won four of their last five; Levante are without a win in five (three draws, two defeats). One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Barcelona v Real MadridSun 25 Oct, 20:00

Our model makes Barcelona 59%, the draw 20% and Real Madrid 22%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (9%), 3.89 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 70%. The headline call is over 2.5 goals at 75%. Barcelona are 1st on 27 points from 9; Real Madrid are 3rd on 21 points from 9. Barcelona have won all of their last five; Real Madrid have won four of their last five. Barcelona have won two of the sides' last three meetings.

Sevilla v OsasunaMon 26 Oct, 20:00

Our model makes Sevilla 47%, the draw 25% and Osasuna 28%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.04 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is over 1.5 goals at 81%. Sevilla are 6th on 14 points from 9; Osasuna are 10th on 11 points from 9. Sevilla have won two of their last five; Osasuna have won one of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Sevilla wins, draws and Osasuna wins.

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

The model has published ten picks on this round so far, where the best available price stands clear of its own probability and the market's consensus together. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.