Atletico Madrid v Barcelona

3rd1–21st

20:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Atletico Madrid		Barcelona
9	Shots	19
4	Shots on target	4
4	Corners	2
14	Fouls	14
4	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
5	Offsides	1
391	Passes	675
37%	Possession %	63%
1.71	xG	1.62

Over 1.5: 86%
Over 2.5: 66%
Over 3.5: 45%
Both score: 67%

Model pick: Barcelona 47%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 1.51 – 1.91

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Under 3.5	55.4%	1.80	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	+5.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	66.8%	1.50	1.36 Bet365	73.5%	-6.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	33.2%	3.01	3.30 Betfair	30.3%	+2.9
Match result	Atletico Madrid	30.2%	3.32	3.85 Dafabet	26.0%	+4.2
Match result	Draw	23.1%	4.33	4.55 Betano	22.0%	+1.1
Match result	Barcelona	46.8%	2.14	1.90 Betano	52.6%	-5.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	86.0%	1.16	1.11 Betano	90.1%	-4.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	14.0%	7.14	8.00 Bet365	12.5%	+1.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	66.4%	1.51	1.36 Bet365	73.5%	-7.2
Total goals	Under 2.5	33.6%	2.97	3.40 Bet365	29.4%	+4.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	44.6%	2.24	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	-7.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Barcelona favoured against Atletico Madrid

Our model makes Atletico Madrid 30% to win this La Liga fixture, with the draw at 23% and Barcelona at 47%. The goal projection is 1.51 for Atletico Madrid against 1.91 for Barcelona — a clear edge to Barcelona on expected output. A combined 3.42 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 66% and both teams to score at 67%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 1-2 9%; 2-1 7%; 2-2 7%; 0-2 6%

This season

Season records for Atletico Madrid and Barcelona
Atletico Madrid		Barcelona
12	Played	12
9-1-2	W-D-L	11-0-1
2.33	Pts / game	2.75
1.92	Goals for / game	4.00
0.83	Goals against / game	1.08
67%	Over 2.5	92%
42%	BTTS	67%
50%	Clean sheets	33%
8%	Failed to score	0%
4-1-1	Home record	5-0-1
5-0-1	Away record	6-0-0
L1	Streak	W2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Atletico Madrid · Barcelona

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
17.4	Shots	20.7
6.4	Shots on target	7.3
5.8	Corners	6.7
2.50	Cards	1.86
11.3	Fouls	12.0
58	Possession %	70
1.98	xG	3.07
8 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.4	Shots	6.9
3.1	Shots on target	3.4
3.1	Corners	2.6
1.77	Cards	3.06
9.9	Fouls	11.4
43	Possession %	30
0.92	xG	1.19
8 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Atletico Madrid	Metric	Barcelona
1.40	Goals scored	3.60 (better)
0.20 (better)	Goals conceded	2.00
1.18	Expected goals (xG)	2.56 (better)
	Big chances
4.60	Shots on target	7.80 (better)
14.20	Total shots	17.80 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.80	Corners	4.80
56.6	Possession %	66.4 (better)
576	Passes	691 (better)
	Tackles
9.00 (better)	Fouls	12.00
2.20 (better)	Offsides	2.80
	Throw-ins
2.00	Yellow cards	1.60 (better)
0.33	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Atletico Madrid wins: 2
Draws: 0
Barcelona wins: 5
Goals / game: 3.14
Over 2.5: 86%
Both score: 57%

Atletico Madrid v Barcelona1–22026-11-08
Atletico Madrid v Barcelona1–22026-04-14
Barcelona v Atletico Madrid0–22026-04-08
Atletico Madrid v Barcelona1–22026-04-04
Barcelona v Atletico Madrid3–02026-03-03
Atletico Madrid v Barcelona4–02026-02-12
Barcelona v Atletico Madrid3–12025-12-02

La Liga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Barcelona	12	11	0	1	+35	33	Barcelona won 4 of the last 5
2	Real Madrid	12	10	0	2	+21	30	Real Madrid won 5 of the last 5
3	Atletico Madrid	12	9	1	2	+13	28	Atletico Madrid won 4 of the last 5
4	Real Betis	12	8	2	2	+5	26	Real Betis won 3 of the last 5
5	Real Sociedad	12	7	1	4	+1	22	Real Sociedad won 4 of the last 5
6	Sevilla	12	5	3	4	-2	18	Sevilla won 1 of the last 5
7	Athletic Club	11	4	4	3	+4	16	Athletic Club won 2 of the last 5
8	Villarreal	12	4	3	5	+2	15	Villarreal won 2 of the last 5
9	Deportivo La Coruna	12	3	6	3	+1	15	Deportivo La Coruna won 1 of the last 5
10	Racing Santander	12	4	2	6	-13	14	Racing Santander won 2 of the last 5
11	Celta Vigo	12	2	7	3	0	13	Celta Vigo won 1 of the last 5
12	Alaves	12	3	4	5	-2	13	Alaves won 0 of the last 5
13	Espanyol	12	3	3	6	-1	12	Espanyol won 1 of the last 5
14	Rayo Vallecano	11	3	3	5	-6	12	Rayo Vallecano won 1 of the last 5
15	Getafe	12	3	3	6	-10	12	Getafe won 1 of the last 5
16	Osasuna	12	3	3	6	-11	12	Osasuna won 1 of the last 5
17	Levante	12	2	5	5	-5	11	Levante won 1 of the last 5
18	Elche	12	2	4	6	-6	10	Elche won 1 of the last 5
19	Valencia	12	2	3	7	-12	9	Valencia won 1 of the last 5
20	Malaga	12	0	5	7	-14	5	Malaga won 0 of the last 5