Levante won 1 of the last 5DLLWD17th0–2Atletico Madrid won 4 of the last 5LWWWW3rd
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Levante
Atletico Madrid
20
Shots
11
4
Shots on target
5
5
Corners
3
7
Fouls
7
0
Yellow cards
0
0
Red cards
0
1
Offsides
5
450
Passes
560
46%
Possession %
54%
1.33
xG
0.63
25%
24%
50%
1 · LevanteXAtletico Madrid · 2
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
36%
Both score
60%
Model pick
Atletico Madrid 50%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.23 – 1.81
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Levante
25.5%
3.92
5.75 BetVictor
17.4%
+8.1
Match result
Draw
24.1%
4.15
4.90 Betano
20.4%
+3.7
Match result
Atletico Madrid
50.4%
1.98
1.64 Dafabet
61.0%
-10.5
Total goals
Over 1.5
81.3%
1.23
1.18 Betano
84.7%
-3.4
Total goals
Under 1.5
18.7%
5.35
5.50 Betfair
18.2%
+0.5
Total goals
Over 2.5
58.7%
1.70
1.57 Bet365
63.7%
-5.0
Total goals
Under 2.5
41.3%
2.42
2.55 Betfair
39.2%
+2.0
Total goals
Over 3.5
36.3%
2.75
2.38 Betfair
42.0%
-5.7
Total goals
Under 3.5
63.7%
1.57
1.65 Betano
60.6%
+3.1
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
59.9%
1.67
1.67 Bet365
59.9%
-0.0
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
40.1%
2.49
2.30 BetVictor
43.5%
-3.3
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Atletico Madrid favoured against Levante
Our model makes Levante 25% to win this La Liga fixture, with the draw at 24% and Atletico Madrid at 50%. The goal projection is 1.23 for Levante against 1.81 for Atletico Madrid — a substantial edge to Atletico Madrid on expected output. A combined 3.05 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 59% and both teams to score at 60%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Levante
Metric
Atletico Madrid
2.00 (better)
Goals scored
1.60
2.40
Goals conceded
0.60 (better)
1.51
Expected goals (xG)
1.65 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
5.40
Shots on target
6.00 (better)
12.40
Total shots
16.00 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
3.40
Corners
6.20 (better)
42.4
Possession %
60.6 (better)
374
Passes
620 (better)
—
Tackles
—
10.60 (better)
Fouls
12.00
1.33 (better)
Offsides
1.80
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.80 (better)
Yellow cards
2.20
0.00 (better)
Red cards
0.25
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Levante v 
Atletico Madrid