Deportivo La Coruna v 
Osasuna
Match statistics
| Deportivo La Coruna | Osasuna | |
|---|---|---|
| 18 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 5 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| — | Offsides | — |
| 557 | Passes | 341 |
| 62% | Possession % | 38% |
| 2.39 | xG | 1.16 |
- Over 1.5
- 78%
- Over 2.5
- 54%
- Over 3.5
- 32%
- Both score
- 56%
- Model pick
- Deportivo La Coruna 51%
- Likely score
- 1-1 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.72 – 1.12
Advised bets
Won
Free pick
Edge strength 2 of 5Over 2.5
Why this price?
Back over 2.5 goals at 2.22 with Betano — 3 goals or more in the match.
Our model puts the chance at 54% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 43%; we judge it at 47%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.11. The offered 2.22 implies only 45%, so the price is 5.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.11 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Deportivo La Coruna 1.72, Osasuna 1.12.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Deportivo La Coruna | 50.9% | 1.96 | 2.21 Dafabet | 45.2% | +5.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 24.9% | 4.01 | 3.30 BetVictor | 30.3% | -5.4 |
| Match result | Osasuna | 24.1% | 4.14 | 3.90 Bet365 | 25.6% | -1.5 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 78.2% | 1.28 | 1.45 Betano | 69.0% | +9.2 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 21.8% | 4.58 | 3.00 Bet365 | 33.3% | -11.5 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 54.1% | 1.85 | 2.32 Betano | 43.1% | +11.0 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 45.9% | 2.18 | 1.67 Bet365 | 59.9% | -14.0 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 31.8% | 3.15 | 4.50 Betfair | 22.2% | +9.6 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 68.2% | 1.47 | 1.25 Bet365 | 80.0% | -11.8 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 55.9% | 1.79 | 1.95 William Hill | 51.3% | +4.6 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 44.1% | 2.27 | 1.91 Bet365 | 52.4% | -8.3 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Deportivo La Coruna favoured against Osasuna
Our model makes Deportivo La Coruna 51% to win this La Liga fixture, with the draw at 25% and Osasuna at 24%. The goal projection is 1.72 for Deportivo La Coruna against 1.12 for Osasuna — a substantial edge to Deportivo La Coruna on expected output. A combined 2.84 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 12%
- 2-1 10%
- 1-0 9%
- 2-0 9%
- 0-0 6%
This season
| Deportivo La Coruna | Osasuna | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Played | 12 |
| 3-6-3 | W-D-L | 3-3-6 |
| 1.25 | Pts / game | 1.00 |
| 1.25 | Goals for / game | 1.00 |
| 1.17 | Goals against / game | 1.92 |
| 33% | Over 2.5 | 42% |
| 75% | BTTS | 50% |
| 8% | Clean sheets | 25% |
| 25% | Failed to score | 33% |
| 2-3-1 | Home record | 2-3-1 |
| 1-3-2 | Away record | 1-0-5 |
| D1 | Streak | D1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Deportivo La Coruna · Osasuna
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 13.8 | Shots | 11.7 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.8 | Shots on target | 3.6 |
| 6.5 | Corners | 3.9 |
| 2.08 | Cards | 3.00 |
| 10.1 | Fouls | 15.3 |
| 51 | Possession % | 42 |
| 1.34 | xG | 1.33 |
| 8 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Conceded
| 12.8 | Shots | 18.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Shots on target | 5.6 |
| 4.8 | Corners | 6.1 |
| 3.04 | Cards | 1.43 |
| 13.3 | Fouls | 9.4 |
| 49 | Possession % | 58 |
| 1.01 | xG | 2.02 |
| 8 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Form comparison
| Deportivo La Coruna | Metric | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 (better) | Goals scored | 1.00 |
| 2.00 (better) | Goals conceded | 2.40 |
| 1.66 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.53 |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.67 (better) | Shots on target | 4.00 |
| 16.33 (better) | Total shots | 11.00 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.67 (better) | Corners | 3.60 |
| 50.0 (better) | Possession % | 44.4 |
| 441 (better) | Passes | 374 |
| Tackles | ||
| 12.00 (better) | Fouls | 15.40 |
| 0.33 (better) | Offsides | 2.25 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.67 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.80 |
| 0.50 | Red cards |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Deportivo La Coruna wins
- 1
- Draws
- 0
- Osasuna wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 3.00
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 100%
- Deportivo La Coruna v Osasuna2–12026-11-02
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | +35 | 33 | Barcelona won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | +21 | 30 | Real Madrid won 5 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | +13 | 28 | Atletico Madrid won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | +5 | 26 | Real Betis won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 22 | Real Sociedad won 4 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 18 | Sevilla won 1 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Athletic Club | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | +4 | 16 | Athletic Club won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Villarreal | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | +2 | 15 | Villarreal won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Deportivo La Coruna | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | +1 | 15 | Deportivo La Coruna won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Racing Santander | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -13 | 14 | Racing Santander won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Celta Vigo | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 13 | Celta Vigo won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Alaves | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 13 | Alaves won 0 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Espanyol | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 12 | Espanyol won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Rayo Vallecano | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 | Rayo Vallecano won 1 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Getafe | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 12 | Getafe won 1 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 12 | Osasuna won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Levante | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -5 | 11 | Levante won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Elche | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -6 | 10 | Elche won 1 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Valencia | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -12 | 9 | Valencia won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Malaga | 12 | 0 | 5 | 7 | -14 | 5 | Malaga won 0 of the last 5 |