Villarreal v 
Espanyol
Match statistics
| Villarreal | Espanyol | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| — | Offsides | — |
| 563 | Passes | 326 |
| 63% | Possession % | 37% |
| 0.96 | xG | 0.27 |
- Over 1.5
- 79%
- Over 2.5
- 56%
- Over 3.5
- 34%
- Both score
- 56%
- Model pick
- Villarreal 56%
- Likely score
- 1-1 11%
- Expected goals
- 1.87 – 1.05
Advised bets
Lost
Free pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Villarreal -0.5
Why this price?
Back Villarreal -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 1.60 with Betano — Villarreal must win by more than 0.5 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 56% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 77%; we judge it at 68%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.46. The offered 1.60 implies only 63%, so the price is 9.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Villarreal 1.87, Espanyol 1.05.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Villarreal | 55.9% | 1.79 | 1.45 Betano | 69.0% | -13.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 23.5% | 4.25 | 5.40 Dafabet | 18.5% | +5.0 |
| Match result | Espanyol | 20.5% | 4.87 | 7.50 BetVictor | 13.3% | +7.2 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 79.5% | 1.26 | 1.17 Bet365 | 85.5% | -6.0 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 20.5% | 4.87 | 6.50 Betfair | 15.4% | +5.2 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 56.0% | 1.79 | 1.45 Betano | 69.0% | -13.0 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 44.0% | 2.27 | 2.88 Betfair | 34.7% | +9.3 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 33.6% | 2.98 | 2.25 Betano | 44.4% | -10.9 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 66.4% | 1.51 | 1.80 Betfair | 55.6% | +10.9 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 55.6% | 1.80 | 1.70 Betano | 58.8% | -3.2 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 44.4% | 2.25 | 2.38 Betfair | 42.0% | +2.3 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Villarreal favoured against Espanyol
Our model makes Villarreal 56% to win this La Liga fixture, with the draw at 24% and Espanyol at 21%. The goal projection is 1.87 for Villarreal against 1.05 for Espanyol — a substantial edge to Villarreal on expected output. A combined 2.93 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 56% and both teams to score at 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 11%
- 2-1 10%
- 1-0 10%
- 2-0 9%
- 3-1 6%
This season
| Villarreal | Espanyol | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Played | 12 |
| 4-3-5 | W-D-L | 3-3-6 |
| 1.25 | Pts / game | 1.00 |
| 1.42 | Goals for / game | 1.08 |
| 1.25 | Goals against / game | 1.17 |
| 58% | Over 2.5 | 50% |
| 58% | BTTS | 58% |
| 17% | Clean sheets | 33% |
| 33% | Failed to score | 17% |
| 2-1-3 | Home record | 1-2-3 |
| 2-2-2 | Away record | 2-1-3 |
| W1 | Streak | D1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Villarreal · Espanyol
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 17.6 | Shots | 12.6 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.9 | Shots on target | 3.3 |
| 7.5 | Corners | 4.3 |
| 2.08 | Cards | 3.17 |
| 10.1 | Fouls | 14.4 |
| 62 | Possession % | 47 |
| 2.15 | xG | 0.83 |
| 8 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Conceded
| 9.8 | Shots | 14.4 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | Shots on target | 5.0 |
| 4.5 | Corners | 6.7 |
| 3.27 | Cards | 3.88 |
| 11.8 | Fouls | 10.4 |
| 38 | Possession % | 53 |
| 1.06 | xG | 1.31 |
| 8 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Form comparison
| Villarreal | Metric | Espanyol |
|---|---|---|
| 1.80 (better) | Goals scored | 1.00 |
| 1.40 | Goals conceded | 1.40 |
| 2.02 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.11 |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.40 (better) | Shots on target | 3.60 |
| 17.20 (better) | Total shots | 13.40 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.20 (better) | Corners | 3.60 |
| 54.6 (better) | Possession % | 44.4 |
| 522 (better) | Passes | 364 |
| Tackles | ||
| 10.40 (better) | Fouls | 15.60 |
| 3.00 | Offsides | 3.00 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.80 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.60 |
| 0.00 (better) | Red cards | 0.50 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Villarreal wins
- 2
- Draws
- 0
- Espanyol wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 2.67
- Over 2.5
- 33%
- Both score
- 33%
- Villarreal v Espanyol0–12026-10-30
- Villarreal v Espanyol4–12026-02-09
- Espanyol v Villarreal0–22025-11-08
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | +35 | 33 | Barcelona won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | +21 | 30 | Real Madrid won 5 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | +13 | 28 | Atletico Madrid won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | +5 | 26 | Real Betis won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 22 | Real Sociedad won 4 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 18 | Sevilla won 1 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Athletic Club | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | +4 | 16 | Athletic Club won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Villarreal | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | +2 | 15 | Villarreal won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Deportivo La Coruna | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | +1 | 15 | Deportivo La Coruna won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Racing Santander | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -13 | 14 | Racing Santander won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Celta Vigo | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 13 | Celta Vigo won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Alaves | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 13 | Alaves won 0 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Espanyol | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 12 | Espanyol won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Rayo Vallecano | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 | Rayo Vallecano won 1 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Getafe | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 12 | Getafe won 1 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 12 | Osasuna won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Levante | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -5 | 11 | Levante won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Elche | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -6 | 10 | Elche won 1 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Valencia | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -12 | 9 | Valencia won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Malaga | 12 | 0 | 5 | 7 | -14 | 5 | Malaga won 0 of the last 5 |