Racing Santander won 2 of the last 5WLWLD10th0–3Real Madrid won 5 of the last 5WWWWW2nd
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Racing Santander
Real Madrid
10
Shots
22
1
Shots on target
7
4
Corners
6
10
Fouls
8
2
Yellow cards
0
0
Red cards
0
0
Offsides
2
458
Passes
529
46%
Possession %
54%
1.05
xG
3.41
17%
17%
66%
1 · Racing SantanderXReal Madrid · 2
Over 1.5
94%
Over 2.5
81%
Over 3.5
64%
Both score
73%
Model pick
Real Madrid 66%
Likely score
1-2 8%
Expected goals
1.49 – 2.90
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Racing Santander
17.1%
5.84
12.00 Bet365
8.3%
+8.8
Match result
Draw
16.6%
6.02
8.50 Bet365
11.8%
+4.9
Match result
Real Madrid
66.3%
1.51
1.25 Bet365
80.0%
-13.7
Total goals
Over 1.5
93.5%
1.07
1.08 Betano
92.6%
+0.9
Total goals
Under 1.5
6.5%
15.45
9.00 Bet365
11.1%
-4.6
Total goals
Over 2.5
81.2%
1.23
1.27 Betano
78.7%
+2.5
Total goals
Under 2.5
18.8%
5.33
4.50 Bet365
22.2%
-3.5
Total goals
Over 3.5
63.7%
1.57
1.67 Bet365
59.9%
+3.8
Total goals
Under 3.5
36.3%
2.75
2.62 Bet365
38.2%
-1.9
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
73.3%
1.36
1.62 Bet365
61.7%
+11.6
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
26.7%
3.75
2.63 Betfair
38.0%
-11.4
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Real Madrid favoured against Racing Santander
Our model makes Racing Santander 17% to win this La Liga fixture, with the draw at 17% and Real Madrid at 66%. The goal projection is 1.49 for Racing Santander against 2.90 for Real Madrid — a commanding edge to Real Madrid on expected output. A combined 4.38 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 81% and both teams to score at 73%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-2 at 8%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Real Madrid is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 34% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-2 8%
1-3 8%
2-2 6%
1-1 6%
2-3 6%
This season
Season records for Racing Santander and Real Madrid
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Racing Santander
Metric
Real Madrid
0.80
Goals scored
2.80 (better)
3.20
Goals conceded
1.40 (better)
1.02
Expected goals (xG)
1.73 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
4.20
Shots on target
6.80 (better)
10.40
Total shots
13.60 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
3.60
Corners
5.40 (better)
52.0
Possession %
52.2 (better)
423
Passes
534 (better)
—
Tackles
—
10.60
Fouls
9.00 (better)
1.40 (better)
Offsides
2.00
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.80
Yellow cards
2.20 (better)
0.00 (better)
Red cards
0.50
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Racing Santander v 
Real Madrid