Rayo Vallecano won 1 of the last 5LWLDD14th3–0Celta Vigo won 1 of the last 5DLDWD11th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Rayo Vallecano
Celta Vigo
14
Shots
11
8
Shots on target
0
4
Corners
3
11
Fouls
16
2
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
0
1
Offsides
2
516
Passes
457
53%
Possession %
47%
1.13
xG
1.26
41%
28%
31%
1 · Rayo VallecanoXCelta Vigo · 2
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
24%
Both score
51%
Model pick
Rayo Vallecano 41%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.13
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
50.7%
1.97
1.91 Bet365
52.4%
-1.7
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
49.3%
2.03
1.98 Betano
50.5%
-1.2
Match result
Rayo Vallecano
40.7%
2.46
2.50 Betfair
40.0%
+0.7
Match result
Draw
28.3%
3.54
3.40 Betfair
29.4%
-1.1
Match result
Celta Vigo
31.0%
3.23
3.13 BetVictor
31.9%
-1.0
Total goals
Over 1.5
71.4%
1.40
1.40 Betano
71.4%
-0.1
Total goals
Under 1.5
28.6%
3.49
3.20 Bet365
31.3%
-2.6
Total goals
Over 2.5
44.9%
2.23
2.20 Bet365
45.5%
-0.5
Total goals
Under 2.5
55.1%
1.82
1.80 Bet365
55.6%
-0.5
Total goals
Over 3.5
23.7%
4.22
4.10 Betfair
24.4%
-0.7
Total goals
Under 3.5
76.3%
1.31
1.30 Bet365
76.9%
-0.6
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Rayo Vallecano favoured against Celta Vigo
Our model makes Rayo Vallecano 41% to win this La Liga fixture, with the draw at 28% and Celta Vigo at 31%. The goal projection is 1.34 for Rayo Vallecano against 1.13 for Celta Vigo — a slight edge to Rayo Vallecano on expected output. A combined 2.47 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 45% and both teams to score at 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Rayo Vallecano
Metric
Celta Vigo
1.00
Goals scored
2.00 (better)
1.40
Goals conceded
0.80 (better)
1.21 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.20
—
Big chances *
—
3.40
Shots on target
3.60 (better)
15.00 (better)
Total shots
11.40
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
4.20 (better)
Corners
2.60
56.6 (better)
Possession %
45.0
398
Passes
474 (better)
—
Tackles
—
9.40 (better)
Fouls
13.00
1.00 (better)
Offsides
2.00
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.20
Yellow cards
1.60 (better)
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Rayo Vallecano v 
Celta Vigo