Athletic Club won 2 of the last 5DWWLD7th2–1Real Sociedad won 4 of the last 5WLWWW5th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Athletic Club
Real Sociedad
13
Shots
14
3
Shots on target
5
5
Corners
8
11
Fouls
13
2
Yellow cards
4
0
Red cards
0
0
Offsides
2
366
Passes
597
38%
Possession %
62%
3.12
xG
1.17
33%
24%
43%
1 · Athletic ClubXReal Sociedad · 2
Over 1.5
83%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
40%
Both score
64%
Model pick
Real Sociedad 43%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.49 – 1.71
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Athletic Club
33.0%
3.03
2.20 Betfair
45.5%
-12.4
Match result
Draw
24.3%
4.11
3.70 Bet365
27.0%
-2.7
Match result
Real Sociedad
42.6%
2.35
3.80 Betfair
26.3%
+16.3
Total goals
Over 1.5
83.3%
1.20
1.27 Betano
78.7%
+4.6
Total goals
Under 1.5
16.7%
6.00
4.10 Betfair
24.4%
-7.7
Total goals
Over 2.5
61.9%
1.61
1.82 Betano
54.9%
+7.0
Total goals
Under 2.5
38.1%
2.63
2.20 Bet365
45.5%
-7.4
Total goals
Over 3.5
39.6%
2.52
3.00 Bet365
33.3%
+6.3
Total goals
Under 3.5
60.4%
1.66
1.50 Bet365
66.7%
-6.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
63.9%
1.57
1.70 Bet365
58.8%
+5.1
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
36.1%
2.77
2.38 Bet365
42.0%
-5.9
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Real Sociedad favoured against Athletic Club
Our model makes Athletic Club 33% to win this La Liga fixture, with the draw at 24% and Real Sociedad at 43%. The goal projection is 1.49 for Athletic Club against 1.71 for Real Sociedad — a slight edge to Real Sociedad on expected output. A combined 3.20 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 62% and both teams to score at 64%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 11%
1-2 9%
2-1 8%
2-2 7%
0-1 6%
This season
Season records for Athletic Club and Real Sociedad
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Athletic Club
Metric
Real Sociedad
0.40
Goals scored
3.00 (better)
0.60 (better)
Goals conceded
1.20
1.06
Expected goals (xG)
1.78 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
3.00
Shots on target
5.50 (better)
13.75
Total shots
13.75
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
5.50 (better)
Corners
4.25
60.3 (better)
Possession %
51.8
455
Passes
527 (better)
—
Tackles
—
10.25 (better)
Fouls
10.50
0.33 (better)
Offsides
2.00
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.75
Yellow cards
1.50 (better)
0.33
Red cards
0.33
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Football statistics and betting opinion for adults. Gambling involves risk — never stake money you cannot afford to lose. By continuing you confirm you are 18 or over. We would also like to use analytics cookies to see which pages are useful. Privacy policy
Athletic Club v 
Real Sociedad