Eredivisie · Review

Eredivisie matchweek 12 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every Eredivisie result from matchweek 12 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 8 Nov 2026, updated 9 Nov 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Eredivisie, matchweek 12 (6–8 November 2026), is complete: nine matches, 42 goals (4.67 a game), three home wins, three draws and three away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in seven of the nine and both teams scored in eight.

The result the model rated least likely was the draw in Willem II v PEC Zwolle (1–1), which it had at 21%; the one it rated most likely was PSV Eindhoven's win in Cambuur v PSV Eindhoven (2–5), at 64%.

After the round, PSV Eindhoven lead on 26 points, one point clear of Feyenoord, with Ajax third on 25. The bottom three are Telstar (10), ADO Den Haag (9), Willem II (3).

Match by match

Willem II 1–1 PEC ZwolleFri 6 Nov, 19:00

Before kick-off the model had Willem II 30%, the draw 21% and PEC Zwolle 49%, with PEC Zwolle favoured; it put the draw at 21%. The likeliest score had been 1-2. Expected goals were 0.78–0.82: an even contest on chances. The headline call, PEC Zwolle to win at 49%, did not come in. Pick published: PEC Zwolle +0.25 at 1.83 — half won.

Fortuna Sittard 2–2 TelstarSat 7 Nov, 15:30

Before kick-off the model had Fortuna Sittard 37%, the draw 25% and Telstar 39%, with Telstar favoured; it put the draw at 25%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.95–0.85: Fortuna Sittard created the better chances. The headline call, over 1.5 goals at 83%, came in. Pick published: Telstar 0 at 2.60 — void.

ADO Den Haag 3–1 Sparta RotterdamSat 7 Nov, 17:45

Before kick-off the model had ADO Den Haag 38%, the draw 23% and Sparta Rotterdam 38%, with Sparta Rotterdam favoured; it put ADO Den Haag winning at 38%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.66–1.95: an even contest on chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 68%, came in. Pick published: ADO Den Haag -0.5 at 2.32 — won.

Excelsior 0–1 GO Ahead EaglesSat 7 Nov, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Excelsior 35%, the draw 23% and GO Ahead Eagles 42%, so GO Ahead Eagles winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.84–0.61: an even contest on chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 68%, did not come in.

Heerenveen 5–3 FeyenoordSun 8 Nov, 11:15

Before kick-off the model had Heerenveen 27%, the draw 22% and Feyenoord 51%, with Feyenoord favoured; it put Heerenveen winning at 27%. The likeliest score had been 1-2. Expected goals were 1.97–1.22: Heerenveen created the better chances. The headline call, Feyenoord to win at 51%, did not come in.

Twente 2–2 AjaxSun 8 Nov, 13:30

Before kick-off the model had Twente 36%, the draw 24% and Ajax 40%, with Ajax favoured; it put the draw at 24%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.56–0.72: Twente created the better chances. The headline call, over 1.5 goals at 86%, came in. Pick published: Twente -0.5 at 2.55 — lost.

AZ Alkmaar 4–3 GroningenSun 8 Nov, 15:45

Before kick-off the model had AZ Alkmaar 51%, the draw 23% and Groningen 26%, so AZ Alkmaar winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 3.71–2.21: AZ Alkmaar created the better chances. The headline call, AZ Alkmaar to win at 51%, came in.

Cambuur 2–5 PSV EindhovenSun 8 Nov, 15:45

Before kick-off the model had Cambuur 19%, the draw 17% and PSV Eindhoven 64%, so PSV Eindhoven winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-2. Expected goals were 1.06–2.62: PSV Eindhoven created the better chances. The headline call, PSV Eindhoven to win at 64%, came in. Pick published: PSV Eindhoven +0.5 at 1.35 — won.

Utrecht 2–3 NEC NijmegenSun 8 Nov, 19:00

Before kick-off the model had Utrecht 36%, the draw 23% and NEC Nijmegen 41%, so NEC Nijmegen winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.28–2.27: an even contest on chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 69%, came in.

The numbers this season

Eredivisie has averaged 3.89 goals a game over 108 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 72% of them and both sides scoring in 70%. Home sides have won 34% of matches, 28% have been drawn and away sides have won 38%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.