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Eredivisie predictions: matchweek 12 (6–8 November 2026)

Every Eredivisie match in matchweek 12 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published 30 Oct 2026, updated 1 Nov 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Eredivisie, matchweek 12: nine matches, played across 6–8 November 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.

The strongest favourite is PSV Eindhoven, 64% to beat Cambuur away; the most evenly balanced game is ADO Den Haag v Sparta Rotterdam (ADO Den Haag 38%, draw 23%, Sparta Rotterdam 38%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Cambuur v PSV Eindhoven, at 4.35; the tightest looks Fortuna Sittard v Telstar, at 3.15.

Going into the round, Feyenoord lead on 25 points, one point clear of Ajax, with PSV Eindhoven third on 23. The bottom three are Telstar (6), ADO Den Haag (6), Willem II (2).

The numbers this season

Eredivisie has averaged 3.73 goals a game over 96 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 71% of them and both sides scoring in 69%. Home sides have won 34% of matches, 28% have been drawn and away sides have won 38%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

Match by match

Willem II v PEC ZwolleFri 6 Nov, 19:00

Our model makes Willem II 30%, the draw 21% and PEC Zwolle 49%. The likeliest score is 1-2 (8%), 3.96 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 74%. The headline call is PEC Zwolle to win at 49%. Willem II are 18th on 2 points from 11; PEC Zwolle are 14th on 11 points from 11. Willem II have lost all of their last five; PEC Zwolle have won two of their last five.

Fortuna Sittard v TelstarSat 7 Nov, 15:30

Our model makes Fortuna Sittard 37%, the draw 25% and Telstar 39%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.15 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 63%. The headline call is both teams to score at 63%. Fortuna Sittard are 6th on 19 points from 11; Telstar are 16th on 6 points from 10. Fortuna Sittard are unbeaten in five (two wins, three draws); Telstar are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats). The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Fortuna Sittard wins, draws and Telstar wins.

ADO Den Haag v Sparta RotterdamSat 7 Nov, 17:45

Our model makes ADO Den Haag 38%, the draw 23% and Sparta Rotterdam 38%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.45 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 68%. The headline call is both teams to score at 68%. ADO Den Haag are 17th on 6 points from 11; Sparta Rotterdam are 15th on 9 points from 10. ADO Den Haag have won one of their last five; Sparta Rotterdam have won one of their last five.

Excelsior v GO Ahead EaglesSat 7 Nov, 20:00

Our model makes Excelsior 35%, the draw 23% and GO Ahead Eagles 42%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.46 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 68%. The headline call is both teams to score at 68%. Excelsior are 13th on 11 points from 10; GO Ahead Eagles are 10th on 14 points from 11. Excelsior are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats); GO Ahead Eagles have won one of their last five. GO Ahead Eagles have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Heerenveen v FeyenoordSun 8 Nov, 11:15

Our model makes Heerenveen 27%, the draw 22% and Feyenoord 51%. The likeliest score is 1-2 (9%), 3.65 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 69%. The headline call is Feyenoord to win at 51%. Heerenveen are 7th on 18 points from 11; Feyenoord are 1st on 25 points from 11. Heerenveen have won four of their last five; Feyenoord are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws). One of the sides' last three meetings was drawn.

Twente v AjaxSun 8 Nov, 13:30

Our model makes Twente 36%, the draw 24% and Ajax 40%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.39 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 67%. The headline call is both teams to score at 67%. Twente are 4th on 20 points from 10; Ajax are 2nd on 24 points from 11. Twente have won three of their last five; Ajax are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws). The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Twente wins, draws and Ajax wins.

AZ Alkmaar v GroningenSun 8 Nov, 15:45

Our model makes AZ Alkmaar 51%, the draw 23% and Groningen 26%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.30 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 64%. The headline call is AZ Alkmaar to win at 51%. AZ Alkmaar are 5th on 20 points from 11; Groningen are 8th on 15 points from 10. AZ Alkmaar have won one of their last five; Groningen have won two of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between AZ Alkmaar wins, draws and Groningen wins.

Cambuur v PSV EindhovenSun 8 Nov, 15:45

Our model makes Cambuur 19%, the draw 17% and PSV Eindhoven 64%. The likeliest score is 1-2 (8%), 4.35 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 81%, both teams to score 74%. The headline call is PSV Eindhoven to win at 64%. Cambuur are 9th on 15 points from 11; PSV Eindhoven are 3rd on 23 points from 11. Cambuur are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws); PSV Eindhoven have won two of their last five.

Utrecht v NEC NijmegenSun 8 Nov, 19:00

Our model makes Utrecht 36%, the draw 23% and NEC Nijmegen 41%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (9%), 3.56 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 69%. The headline call is both teams to score at 69%. Utrecht are 11th on 12 points from 10; NEC Nijmegen are 12th on 11 points from 11. Utrecht have won three of their last five; NEC Nijmegen are without a win in five (four draws, one defeat). Utrecht have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

The model has published eight picks on this round so far, where the best available price stands clear of its own probability and the market's consensus together. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.