Cambuur v 
PSV Eindhoven
Match statistics
| Cambuur | PSV Eindhoven | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | Shots on target | 7 |
| 1 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 3 | Offsides | 1 |
| 310 | Passes | 520 |
| 38% | Possession % | 62% |
| 1.06 | xG | 2.62 |
- Over 1.5
- 93%
- Over 2.5
- 81%
- Over 3.5
- 63%
- Both score
- 74%
- Model pick
- PSV Eindhoven 64%
- Likely score
- 1-2 8%
- Expected goals
- 1.53 – 2.82
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5PSV Eindhoven +0.5
Why this price?
Back PSV Eindhoven +0.5 on the Asian handicap at 1.35 with Bet365 — PSV Eindhoven starts 0.5 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.
Our model puts the chance at 81% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 83%; we judge it at 83%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.21. The offered 1.35 implies only 74%, so the price is 11.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Cambuur 1.53, PSV Eindhoven 2.82.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Cambuur | 18.6% | 5.38 | 8.00 Betfair | 12.5% | +6.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 17.2% | 5.81 | 6.00 Dafabet | 16.7% | +0.5 |
| Match result | PSV Eindhoven | 64.2% | 1.56 | 1.47 Betano | 68.0% | -3.8 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 93.4% | 1.07 | 1.08 Betano | 92.6% | +0.8 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 6.6% | 15.14 | 10.00 Bet365 | 10.0% | -3.4 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 80.9% | 1.24 | 1.28 Bet365 | 78.1% | +2.8 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 19.1% | 5.25 | 4.10 Betfair | 24.4% | -5.3 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 63.2% | 1.58 | 1.70 Betano | 58.8% | +4.4 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 36.8% | 2.72 | 2.25 Betfair | 44.4% | -7.7 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 74.0% | 1.35 | 1.45 Betano | 69.0% | +5.0 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 26.0% | 3.84 | 3.10 Betfair | 32.3% | -6.2 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
PSV Eindhoven favoured against Cambuur
Our model makes Cambuur 19% to win this Eredivisie fixture, with the draw at 17% and PSV Eindhoven at 64%. The goal projection is 1.53 for Cambuur against 2.82 for PSV Eindhoven — a commanding edge to PSV Eindhoven on expected output. A combined 4.35 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 81% and both teams to score at 74%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-2 at 8%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. PSV Eindhoven is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 36% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-2 8%
- 1-3 7%
- 2-2 6%
- 1-1 6%
- 2-3 6%
This season
| Cambuur | PSV Eindhoven | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Played | 12 |
| 4-3-5 | W-D-L | 8-2-2 |
| 1.25 | Pts / game | 2.17 |
| 2.08 | Goals for / game | 3.33 |
| 2.25 | Goals against / game | 1.25 |
| 83% | Over 2.5 | 83% |
| 67% | BTTS | 83% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 17% |
| 8% | Failed to score | 0% |
| 2-1-4 | Home record | 4-2-0 |
| 2-2-1 | Away record | 4-0-2 |
| L1 | Streak | W2 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Cambuur · PSV Eindhoven
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 13.6 | Shots | 16.2 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.2 | Shots on target | 5.3 |
| 4.0 | Corners | 4.8 |
| 2.20 | Cards | 1.70 |
| 11.4 | Fouls | 12.8 |
| 45 | Possession % | 58 |
| 1.40 | xG | 1.84 |
| 5 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Conceded
| 11.8 | Shots | 12.7 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Shots on target | 4.5 |
| 5.4 | Corners | 3.7 |
| 2.00 | Cards | 2.33 |
| 15.2 | Fouls | 10.8 |
| 55 | Possession % | 42 |
| 1.40 | xG | 1.50 |
| 5 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Form comparison
| Cambuur | Metric | PSV Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|
| 2.40 (better) | Goals scored | 1.00 |
| 0.80 | Goals conceded | 0.80 |
| 1.43 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.74 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.75 (better) | Shots on target | 4.00 |
| 12.75 | Total shots | 15.80 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 3.75 | Corners | 5.40 (better) |
| 43.8 | Possession % | 54.2 (better) |
| 345 | Passes | 494 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 12.50 | Fouls | 12.00 (better) |
| 3.00 (better) | Offsides | 3.20 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.75 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.20 |
| 0.25 (better) | Red cards | 0.33 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Cambuur wins
- 0
- Draws
- 0
- PSV Eindhoven wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 7.00
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 100%
- Cambuur v PSV Eindhoven2–52026-11-08
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV Eindhoven | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | +25 | 26 | PSV Eindhoven won 3 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | +19 | 25 | Feyenoord won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Ajax | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | +17 | 25 | Ajax won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Twente | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | +18 | 24 | Twente won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | +8 | 23 | AZ Alkmaar won 1 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Heerenveen | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | +8 | 21 | Heerenveen won 4 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 20 | Fortuna Sittard won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | GO Ahead Eagles | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | -3 | 17 | GO Ahead Eagles won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Groningen | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | +1 | 15 | Groningen won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Cambuur | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 15 | Cambuur won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 14 | NEC Nijmegen won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 12 | Sparta Rotterdam won 2 of the last 5 |
| 13 | PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 12 | PEC Zwolle won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Utrecht | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -13 | 12 | Utrecht won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Excelsior | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 11 | Excelsior won 0 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Telstar | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -7 | 10 | Telstar won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 9 | ADO Den Haag won 2 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Willem II | 12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | -29 | 3 | Willem II won 0 of the last 5 |