Excelsior won 0 of the last 5LLLLL15th0–1GO Ahead Eagles won 2 of the last 5WLWLD8th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Excelsior
GO Ahead Eagles
14
Shots
6
2
Shots on target
2
7
Corners
0
6
Fouls
7
1
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
0
1
Offsides
2
452
Passes
491
48%
Possession %
52%
0.84
xG
0.61
35%
23%
42%
1 · ExcelsiorXGO Ahead Eagles · 2
Over 1.5
86%
Over 2.5
67%
Over 3.5
46%
Both score
68%
Model pick
GO Ahead Eagles 42%
Likely score
1-1 10%
Expected goals
1.66 – 1.81
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Excelsior
35.2%
2.84
2.87 Betano
34.8%
+0.3
Match result
Draw
23.3%
4.29
3.90 Betfair
25.6%
-2.4
Match result
GO Ahead Eagles
41.5%
2.41
2.45 Bet365
40.8%
+0.7
Total goals
Under 2.5
32.8%
3.05
2.55 BetVictor
39.2%
-6.5
Total goals
Over 3.5
45.6%
2.19
2.47 Betano
40.5%
+5.1
Total goals
Under 3.5
54.4%
1.84
1.62 Bet365
61.7%
-7.3
Total goals
Over 1.5
86.5%
1.16
1.20 Betano
83.3%
+3.2
Total goals
Under 1.5
13.5%
7.40
6.00 Betfair
16.7%
-3.2
Total goals
Over 2.5
67.2%
1.49
1.60 Bet365
62.5%
+4.7
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
68.1%
1.47
1.50 William Hill
66.7%
+1.4
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
31.9%
3.13
2.88 BetVictor
34.7%
-2.8
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
GO Ahead Eagles favoured against Excelsior
Our model makes Excelsior 35% to win this Eredivisie fixture, with the draw at 23% and GO Ahead Eagles at 42%. The goal projection is 1.66 for Excelsior against 1.81 for GO Ahead Eagles — a slight edge to GO Ahead Eagles on expected output. A combined 3.46 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 67% and both teams to score at 68%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Excelsior
Metric
GO Ahead Eagles
1.20
Goals scored
2.60 (better)
2.40
Goals conceded
2.00 (better)
1.04
Expected goals (xG)
1.88 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
2.60
Shots on target
6.25 (better)
8.00
Total shots
16.25 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
1.80
Corners
6.50 (better)
42.8
Possession %
55.3 (better)
401
Passes
485 (better)
—
Tackles
—
11.20
Fouls
8.00 (better)
1.00
Offsides
0.67 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
0.80
Yellow cards
0.75 (better)
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Excelsior v 
GO Ahead Eagles