AZ Alkmaar v Groningen

5th4–39th

15:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
AZ Alkmaar		Groningen
19	Shots	9
5	Shots on target	5
7	Corners	0
11	Fouls	13
1	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	2
2	Offsides	1
492	Passes	357
58%	Possession %	42%
3.71	xG	2.21

Over 1.5: 85%
Over 2.5: 64%
Over 3.5: 42%
Both score: 64%

Model pick: AZ Alkmaar 51%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 1.95 – 1.35

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	AZ Alkmaar	51.0%	1.96	1.55 Betano	64.5%	-13.5
Match result	Draw	23.0%	4.35	5.00 Betano	20.0%	+3.0
Match result	Groningen	26.0%	3.84	6.30 Betano	15.9%	+10.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	84.6%	1.18	1.14 Betano	87.7%	-3.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	15.4%	6.49	6.50 Bet365	15.4%	+0.0
Total goals	Over 2.5	64.0%	1.56	1.44 Bet365	69.4%	-5.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	36.0%	2.78	3.10 Bet365	32.3%	+3.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	41.9%	2.39	2.05 Betano	48.8%	-6.9
Total goals	Under 3.5	58.1%	1.72	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	+2.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	64.0%	1.56	1.55 Betano	64.5%	-0.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	36.0%	2.77	2.67 Betano	37.5%	-1.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

AZ Alkmaar favoured against Groningen

Our model makes AZ Alkmaar 51% to win this Eredivisie fixture, with the draw at 23% and Groningen at 26%. The goal projection is 1.95 for AZ Alkmaar against 1.35 for Groningen — a substantial edge to AZ Alkmaar on expected output. A combined 3.30 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 64% and both teams to score at 64%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 2-1 9%; 2-0 7%; 1-0 7%; 1-2 7%

This season

Season records for AZ Alkmaar and Groningen
AZ Alkmaar		Groningen
12	Played	12
7-2-3	W-D-L	4-3-5
1.92	Pts / game	1.25
2.00	Goals for / game	2.42
1.33	Goals against / game	2.33
42%	Over 2.5	92%
50%	BTTS	92%
25%	Clean sheets	8%
25%	Failed to score	0%
4-1-1	Home record	2-1-3
3-1-2	Away record	2-2-2
W1	Streak	L2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. AZ Alkmaar · Groningen

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.7	Shots	13.6
4.8	Shots on target	6.4
5.8	Corners	3.4
2.00	Cards	2.20
14.2	Fouls	11.4
57	Possession %	50
2.04	xG	2.29
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.5	Shots	16.0
3.8	Shots on target	6.2
3.2	Corners	6.4
2.13	Cards	1.20
12.7	Fouls	12.2
43	Possession %	50
1.49	xG	2.58
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
AZ Alkmaar	Metric	Groningen
1.60	Goals scored	2.40 (better)
1.40 (better)	Goals conceded	2.00
1.64	Expected goals (xG)	2.05 (better)
	Big chances
5.40	Shots on target	6.20 (better)
12.80	Total shots	15.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
5.20	Corners	5.80 (better)
58.2 (better)	Possession %	54.8
527 (better)	Passes	471
	Tackles
15.20	Fouls	10.80 (better)
1.00 (better)	Offsides	2.00
	Throw-ins
2.40	Yellow cards	1.60 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

AZ Alkmaar wins: 2
Draws: 0
Groningen wins: 1
Goals / game: 5.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 67%

AZ Alkmaar v Groningen4–32026-11-08
Groningen v AZ Alkmaar3–02026-03-22
AZ Alkmaar v Groningen4–12025-08-10

Eredivisie table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	PSV Eindhoven	12	8	2	2	+25	26	PSV Eindhoven won 3 of the last 5
2	Feyenoord	12	7	4	1	+19	25	Feyenoord won 2 of the last 5
3	Ajax	12	7	4	1	+17	25	Ajax won 3 of the last 5
4	Twente	12	7	3	2	+18	24	Twente won 2 of the last 5
5	AZ Alkmaar	12	7	2	3	+8	23	AZ Alkmaar won 1 of the last 5
6	Heerenveen	12	6	3	3	+8	21	Heerenveen won 4 of the last 5
7	Fortuna Sittard	12	5	5	2	0	20	Fortuna Sittard won 1 of the last 5
8	GO Ahead Eagles	12	4	5	3	-3	17	GO Ahead Eagles won 2 of the last 5
9	Groningen	12	4	3	5	+1	15	Groningen won 1 of the last 5
10	Cambuur	12	4	3	5	-2	15	Cambuur won 3 of the last 5
11	NEC Nijmegen	12	3	5	4	-1	14	NEC Nijmegen won 1 of the last 5
12	Sparta Rotterdam	12	3	3	6	-8	12	Sparta Rotterdam won 2 of the last 5
13	PEC Zwolle	12	3	3	6	-11	12	PEC Zwolle won 2 of the last 5
14	Utrecht	12	3	3	6	-13	12	Utrecht won 2 of the last 5
15	Excelsior	12	3	2	7	-13	11	Excelsior won 0 of the last 5
16	Telstar	12	2	4	6	-7	10	Telstar won 1 of the last 5
17	ADO Den Haag	12	2	3	7	-9	9	ADO Den Haag won 2 of the last 5
18	Willem II	12	0	3	9	-29	3	Willem II won 0 of the last 5