Willem II v 
PEC Zwolle
Match statistics
| Willem II | PEC Zwolle | |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 0 | Offsides | 1 |
| 415 | Passes | 554 |
| 42% | Possession % | 58% |
| 0.78 | xG | 0.82 |
- Over 1.5
- 91%
- Over 2.5
- 76%
- Over 3.5
- 56%
- Both score
- 74%
- Model pick
- PEC Zwolle 49%
- Likely score
- 1-2 8%
- Expected goals
- 1.74 – 2.22
Advised bets
Half wonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5PEC Zwolle +0.25
Why this price?
Back PEC Zwolle +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.83 with Marathonbet — PEC Zwolle starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.
Our model puts the chance at 66% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 58%; we judge it at 61%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.64. The offered 1.83 implies only 55%, so the price is 11.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Willem II 1.74, PEC Zwolle 2.22.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Willem II | 30.3% | 3.30 | 3.60 Bet365 | 27.8% | +2.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 21.0% | 4.75 | 3.80 Betano | 26.3% | -5.3 |
| Match result | PEC Zwolle | 48.7% | 2.05 | 2.50 Bet365 | 40.0% | +8.7 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 90.9% | 1.10 | 1.22 Betano | 82.0% | +8.9 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 9.1% | 10.98 | 5.50 Betfair | 18.2% | -9.1 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 75.6% | 1.32 | 1.67 Betano | 59.9% | +15.7 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 24.4% | 4.09 | 2.55 Betfair | 39.2% | -14.8 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 55.8% | 1.79 | 2.63 BetVictor | 38.0% | +17.8 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 44.2% | 2.26 | 1.53 Bet365 | 65.4% | -21.2 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 73.8% | 1.35 | 1.60 Betfair | 62.5% | +11.3 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 26.2% | 3.82 | 2.75 Betano | 36.4% | -10.2 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
PEC Zwolle favoured against Willem II
Our model makes Willem II 30% to win this Eredivisie fixture, with the draw at 21% and PEC Zwolle at 49%. The goal projection is 1.74 for Willem II against 2.22 for PEC Zwolle — a clear edge to PEC Zwolle on expected output. A combined 3.96 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 76% and both teams to score at 74%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-2 at 8%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-2 8%
- 1-1 8%
- 2-2 7%
- 2-1 6%
- 1-3 6%
This season
| Willem II | PEC Zwolle | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Played | 12 |
| 0-3-9 | W-D-L | 3-3-6 |
| 0.25 | Pts / game | 1.00 |
| 0.92 | Goals for / game | 1.08 |
| 3.33 | Goals against / game | 2.00 |
| 75% | Over 2.5 | 50% |
| 75% | BTTS | 50% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 17% |
| 25% | Failed to score | 33% |
| 0-2-4 | Home record | 2-0-4 |
| 0-1-5 | Away record | 1-3-2 |
| D1 | Streak | D1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Willem II · PEC Zwolle
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 10.0 | Shots | 16.2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.8 | Shots on target | 5.4 |
| 4.6 | Corners | 5.4 |
| 1.80 | Cards | 1.60 |
| 11.0 | Fouls | 10.8 |
| 43 | Possession % | 44 |
| 1.01 | xG | 1.22 |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Conceded
| 19.8 | Shots | 15.8 |
|---|---|---|
| 7.2 | Shots on target | 4.6 |
| 6.4 | Corners | 4.4 |
| 1.20 | Cards | 1.80 |
| 10.4 | Fouls | 10.4 |
| 57 | Possession % | 56 |
| 2.07 | xG | 1.32 |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Form comparison
| Willem II | Metric | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| 1.60 (better) | Goals scored | 1.20 |
| 3.20 | Goals conceded | 1.60 (better) |
| 1.11 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.04 |
| Big chances | ||
| 3.00 | Shots on target | 5.40 (better) |
| 12.40 | Total shots | 13.00 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.20 | Corners | 5.20 |
| 49.6 (better) | Possession % | 49.4 |
| 428 | Passes | 432 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 12.80 | Fouls | 10.80 (better) |
| 1.50 (better) | Offsides | 2.00 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.20 | Yellow cards | 1.40 (better) |
| 0.25 | Red cards | 0.00 (better) |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Willem II wins
- 0
- Draws
- 1
- PEC Zwolle wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 2.00
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 100%
- Willem II v PEC Zwolle1–12026-11-06
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV Eindhoven | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | +25 | 26 | PSV Eindhoven won 3 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | +19 | 25 | Feyenoord won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Ajax | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | +17 | 25 | Ajax won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Twente | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | +18 | 24 | Twente won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | +8 | 23 | AZ Alkmaar won 1 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Heerenveen | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | +8 | 21 | Heerenveen won 4 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 20 | Fortuna Sittard won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | GO Ahead Eagles | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | -3 | 17 | GO Ahead Eagles won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Groningen | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | +1 | 15 | Groningen won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Cambuur | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 15 | Cambuur won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 14 | NEC Nijmegen won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 12 | Sparta Rotterdam won 2 of the last 5 |
| 13 | PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 12 | PEC Zwolle won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Utrecht | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -13 | 12 | Utrecht won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Excelsior | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 11 | Excelsior won 0 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Telstar | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -7 | 10 | Telstar won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 9 | ADO Den Haag won 2 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Willem II | 12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | -29 | 3 | Willem II won 0 of the last 5 |