ADO Den Haag v 
Sparta Rotterdam
Match statistics
| ADO Den Haag | Sparta Rotterdam | |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Shots | 16 |
| 7 | Shots on target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 9 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 3 | Offsides | 0 |
| 421 | Passes | 427 |
| 49% | Possession % | 51% |
| 1.66 | xG | 1.95 |
- Over 1.5
- 86%
- Over 2.5
- 67%
- Over 3.5
- 45%
- Both score
- 68%
- Model pick
- Sparta Rotterdam 38%
- Likely score
- 1-1 10%
- Expected goals
- 1.72 – 1.73
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5ADO Den Haag -0.5
Why this price?
Back ADO Den Haag -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.32 with Betano — ADO Den Haag must win by more than 0.5 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 38% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 55%; we judge it at 48%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.08. The offered 2.32 implies only 43%, so the price is 11.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: ADO Den Haag 1.72, Sparta Rotterdam 1.73.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | ADO Den Haag | 38.2% | 2.62 | 2.55 Bet365 | 39.2% | -1.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 23.4% | 4.27 | 3.80 Betfair | 26.3% | -2.9 |
| Match result | Sparta Rotterdam | 38.4% | 2.61 | 2.75 Dafabet | 36.4% | +2.0 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 86.4% | 1.16 | 1.20 Betano | 83.3% | +3.0 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 13.6% | 7.33 | 5.00 Bet365 | 20.0% | -6.4 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 67.0% | 1.49 | 1.60 Betano | 62.5% | +4.5 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 33.0% | 3.03 | 2.45 Betfair | 40.8% | -7.8 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 45.3% | 2.21 | 2.47 Betano | 40.5% | +4.8 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 54.7% | 1.83 | 1.57 Betano | 63.7% | -9.0 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 68.0% | 1.47 | 1.50 William Hill | 66.7% | +1.4 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 32.0% | 3.13 | 2.63 Betfair | 38.0% | -6.0 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
ADO Den Haag v Sparta Rotterdam: too close to call
Our model makes ADO Den Haag 38% to win this Eredivisie fixture, with the draw at 23% and Sparta Rotterdam at 38%. The goal projection is 1.72 for ADO Den Haag against 1.73 for Sparta Rotterdam — almost nothing to Sparta Rotterdam on expected output. A combined 3.45 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 67% and both teams to score at 68%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 10%
- 1-2 8%
- 2-1 8%
- 2-2 7%
- 0-1 5%
This season
| ADO Den Haag | Sparta Rotterdam | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Played | 12 |
| 2-3-7 | W-D-L | 3-3-6 |
| 0.75 | Pts / game | 1.00 |
| 1.33 | Goals for / game | 1.75 |
| 2.08 | Goals against / game | 2.42 |
| 67% | Over 2.5 | 92% |
| 75% | BTTS | 83% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 25% | Failed to score | 17% |
| 2-1-3 | Home record | 1-2-3 |
| 0-2-4 | Away record | 2-1-3 |
| W1 | Streak | L1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. ADO Den Haag · Sparta Rotterdam
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 13.4 | Shots | 15.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.6 | Shots on target | 6.2 |
| 3.6 | Corners | 6.0 |
| 2.00 | Cards | 2.20 |
| 14.2 | Fouls | 11.6 |
| 51 | Possession % | 44 |
| 1.58 | xG | 2.16 |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Conceded
| 20.0 | Shots | 15.8 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.8 | Shots on target | 6.2 |
| 5.8 | Corners | 4.6 |
| 1.20 | Cards | 1.60 |
| 9.6 | Fouls | 8.8 |
| 49 | Possession % | 56 |
| 1.98 | xG | 1.67 |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Form comparison
| ADO Den Haag | Metric | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| 1.60 | Goals scored | 1.80 (better) |
| 1.60 (better) | Goals conceded | 2.60 |
| 1.80 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.77 |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.00 | Shots on target | 5.20 (better) |
| 14.75 | Total shots | 16.20 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 4.25 | Corners | 4.40 (better) |
| 50.0 (better) | Possession % | 46.8 |
| 408 | Passes | 438 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 17.75 | Fouls | 11.60 (better) |
| 1.75 (better) | Offsides | 2.67 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.00 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.20 |
| 0.25 | Red cards | 0.00 (better) |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- ADO Den Haag wins
- 1
- Draws
- 0
- Sparta Rotterdam wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 4.00
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 100%
- ADO Den Haag v Sparta Rotterdam3–12026-11-07
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV Eindhoven | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | +25 | 26 | PSV Eindhoven won 3 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | +19 | 25 | Feyenoord won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Ajax | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | +17 | 25 | Ajax won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Twente | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | +18 | 24 | Twente won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | +8 | 23 | AZ Alkmaar won 1 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Heerenveen | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | +8 | 21 | Heerenveen won 4 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 20 | Fortuna Sittard won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | GO Ahead Eagles | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | -3 | 17 | GO Ahead Eagles won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Groningen | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | +1 | 15 | Groningen won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Cambuur | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 15 | Cambuur won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 14 | NEC Nijmegen won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 12 | Sparta Rotterdam won 2 of the last 5 |
| 13 | PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 12 | PEC Zwolle won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Utrecht | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -13 | 12 | Utrecht won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Excelsior | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 11 | Excelsior won 0 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Telstar | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -7 | 10 | Telstar won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 9 | ADO Den Haag won 2 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Willem II | 12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | -29 | 3 | Willem II won 0 of the last 5 |