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Eredivisie predictions: matchweek 11 (31 October – 1 November 2026)

Every Eredivisie match in matchweek 11 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published 24 Oct 2026, updated 25 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Eredivisie, matchweek 11: nine matches, played across 31 October – 1 November 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.

The strongest favourite is PSV Eindhoven, 84% to beat Willem II at home; the most evenly balanced game is Telstar v Utrecht (Telstar 37%, draw 23%, Utrecht 40%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is PSV Eindhoven v Willem II, at 4.97; the tightest looks Excelsior v Twente, at 3.17.

Going into the round, Feyenoord lead on 23 points, three points clear of AZ Alkmaar, with PSV Eindhoven third on 19. The bottom three are Telstar (6), ADO Den Haag (6), Willem II (2).

The numbers this season

Eredivisie has averaged 3.85 goals a game over 86 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 74% of them and both sides scoring in 72%. Home sides have won 33% of matches, 28% have been drawn and away sides have won 40%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

Match by match

Feyenoord v Fortuna SittardSat 31 Oct, 15:30

Our model makes Feyenoord 62%, the draw 19% and Fortuna Sittard 19%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (9%), 3.79 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 68%. The headline call is Feyenoord to win at 62%. Feyenoord are 1st on 23 points from 9; Fortuna Sittard are 5th on 18 points from 10. Feyenoord have won all of their last five; Fortuna Sittard have won two of their last five. Feyenoord have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Heerenveen v NEC NijmegenSat 31 Oct, 17:45

Our model makes Heerenveen 41%, the draw 23% and NEC Nijmegen 36%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.46 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 68%. The headline call is both teams to score at 68%. Heerenveen are 7th on 15 points from 10; NEC Nijmegen are 13th on 10 points from 9. Heerenveen have won three of their last five; NEC Nijmegen are without a win in five (four draws, one defeat). One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

PSV Eindhoven v Willem IISat 31 Oct, 17:45

Our model makes PSV Eindhoven 84%, the draw 10% and Willem II 7%. The likeliest score is 3-1 (7%), 4.97 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 87%, both teams to score 67%. The headline call is PSV Eindhoven to win at 84%. PSV Eindhoven are 3rd on 19 points from 9; Willem II are 18th on 2 points from 10. PSV Eindhoven have won three of their last five; Willem II have lost all of their last five.

Ajax v AZ AlkmaarSat 31 Oct, 20:00

Our model makes Ajax 42%, the draw 23% and AZ Alkmaar 35%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.45 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 68%. The headline call is both teams to score at 68%. Ajax are 4th on 18 points from 9; AZ Alkmaar are 2nd on 20 points from 9. Ajax are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws); AZ Alkmaar have won two of their last five. AZ Alkmaar have won two of the sides' last three meetings.

Cambuur v GO Ahead EaglesSat 31 Oct, 20:00

Our model makes Cambuur 31%, the draw 21% and GO Ahead Eagles 47%. The likeliest score is 1-2 (8%), 3.92 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 74%. The headline call is GO Ahead Eagles to win at 47%. Cambuur are 10th on 12 points from 10; GO Ahead Eagles are 9th on 14 points from 10. Cambuur are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws); GO Ahead Eagles have won one of their last five.

PEC Zwolle v ADO Den HaagSun 1 Nov, 11:15

Our model makes PEC Zwolle 34%, the draw 23% and ADO Den Haag 43%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.43 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 67%. The headline call is over 1.5 goals at 86%. PEC Zwolle are 15th on 8 points from 10; ADO Den Haag are 17th on 6 points from 10. PEC Zwolle have won one of their last five; ADO Den Haag have won one of their last five.

Excelsior v TwenteSun 1 Nov, 13:30

Our model makes Excelsior 22%, the draw 23% and Twente 55%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.17 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is Twente to win at 55%. Excelsior are 12th on 11 points from 10; Twente are 6th on 17 points from 9. Excelsior are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats); Twente have won three of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Telstar v UtrechtSun 1 Nov, 13:30

Our model makes Telstar 37%, the draw 23% and Utrecht 40%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.51 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 69%. The headline call is both teams to score at 69%. Telstar are 16th on 6 points from 10; Utrecht are 11th on 12 points from 10. Telstar are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats); Utrecht have won three of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Groningen v Sparta RotterdamSun 1 Nov, 15:45

Our model makes Groningen 51%, the draw 22% and Sparta Rotterdam 27%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (9%), 3.58 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 68%. The headline call is Groningen to win at 51%. Groningen are 8th on 14 points from 9; Sparta Rotterdam are 14th on 9 points from 9. Groningen have won two of their last five; Sparta Rotterdam have won one of their last five. Sparta Rotterdam have won three of the sides' last three meetings.

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

The model has published six picks on this round so far, where the best available price stands clear of its own probability and the market's consensus together. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.