Ajax v AZ Alkmaar

3rd1–05th

20:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Ajax		AZ Alkmaar
9	Shots	20
2	Shots on target	5
1	Corners	8
12	Fouls	12
1	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	4
481	Passes	506
48%	Possession %	52%
0.77	xG	2.32

Over 1.5: 86%
Over 2.5: 67%
Over 3.5: 45%
Both score: 68%

Model pick: Ajax 42%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 1.81 – 1.64

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Over 2.5	67.0%	1.49	1.40 Bet365	71.4%	-4.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	33.0%	3.03	3.10 Bet365	32.3%	+0.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	45.3%	2.21	1.98 Betano	50.5%	-5.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	54.7%	1.83	1.88 Betano	53.2%	+1.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	67.9%	1.47	1.44 Bet365	69.4%	-1.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	32.1%	3.12	2.88 BetVictor	34.7%	-2.6
Match result	Ajax	42.0%	2.38	1.80 Betano	55.6%	-13.6
Match result	Draw	23.3%	4.29	4.75 Bet365	21.1%	+2.3
Match result	AZ Alkmaar	34.7%	2.88	4.75 Bet365	21.1%	+13.7
Total goals	Over 1.5	86.4%	1.16	1.13 Betano	88.5%	-2.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	13.6%	7.34	7.00 Bet365	14.3%	-0.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Ajax favoured against AZ Alkmaar

Our model makes Ajax 42% to win this Eredivisie fixture, with the draw at 23% and AZ Alkmaar at 35%. The goal projection is 1.81 for Ajax against 1.64 for AZ Alkmaar — a slight edge to Ajax on expected output. A combined 3.45 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 67% and both teams to score at 68%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 2-1 9%; 1-2 8%; 2-2 7%; 1-0 5%

This season

Season records for Ajax and AZ Alkmaar
Ajax		AZ Alkmaar
12	Played	12
7-4-1	W-D-L	7-2-3
2.08	Pts / game	1.92
2.67	Goals for / game	2.00
1.25	Goals against / game	1.33
75%	Over 2.5	42%
75%	BTTS	50%
25%	Clean sheets	25%
0%	Failed to score	25%
2-3-1	Home record	4-1-1
5-1-0	Away record	3-1-2
D1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Ajax · AZ Alkmaar

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.8	Shots	14.7
4.8	Shots on target	4.8
2.8	Corners	5.8
2.40	Cards	2.00
11.0	Fouls	14.2
51	Possession %	57
1.56	xG	2.04
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.4	Shots	10.5
4.4	Shots on target	3.8
6.6	Corners	3.2
1.80	Cards	2.13
12.4	Fouls	12.7
49	Possession %	43
1.84	xG	1.49
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Ajax	Metric	AZ Alkmaar
2.20 (better)	Goals scored	1.80
1.40	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
2.05 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.92
	Big chances
7.00 (better)	Shots on target	6.00
19.80 (better)	Total shots	13.60
	Touches in opp. box
6.00 (better)	Corners	5.60
60.6 (better)	Possession %	60.4
577 (better)	Passes	561
	Tackles
10.40 (better)	Fouls	14.80
2.20	Offsides	0.75 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.60 (better)	Yellow cards	2.00
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Ajax wins: 1
Draws: 1
AZ Alkmaar wins: 2
Goals / game: 2.75
Over 2.5: 25%
Both score: 25%

Ajax v AZ Alkmaar1–02026-10-31
AZ Alkmaar v Ajax1–12026-02-08
AZ Alkmaar v Ajax6–02026-01-14
Ajax v AZ Alkmaar0–22025-10-18

Eredivisie table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	PSV Eindhoven	12	8	2	2	+25	26	PSV Eindhoven won 3 of the last 5
2	Feyenoord	12	7	4	1	+19	25	Feyenoord won 2 of the last 5
3	Ajax	12	7	4	1	+17	25	Ajax won 3 of the last 5
4	Twente	12	7	3	2	+18	24	Twente won 2 of the last 5
5	AZ Alkmaar	12	7	2	3	+8	23	AZ Alkmaar won 1 of the last 5
6	Heerenveen	12	6	3	3	+8	21	Heerenveen won 4 of the last 5
7	Fortuna Sittard	12	5	5	2	0	20	Fortuna Sittard won 1 of the last 5
8	GO Ahead Eagles	12	4	5	3	-3	17	GO Ahead Eagles won 2 of the last 5
9	Groningen	12	4	3	5	+1	15	Groningen won 1 of the last 5
10	Cambuur	12	4	3	5	-2	15	Cambuur won 3 of the last 5
11	NEC Nijmegen	12	3	5	4	-1	14	NEC Nijmegen won 1 of the last 5
12	Sparta Rotterdam	12	3	3	6	-8	12	Sparta Rotterdam won 2 of the last 5
13	PEC Zwolle	12	3	3	6	-11	12	PEC Zwolle won 2 of the last 5
14	Utrecht	12	3	3	6	-13	12	Utrecht won 2 of the last 5
15	Excelsior	12	3	2	7	-13	11	Excelsior won 0 of the last 5
16	Telstar	12	2	4	6	-7	10	Telstar won 1 of the last 5
17	ADO Den Haag	12	2	3	7	-9	9	ADO Den Haag won 2 of the last 5
18	Willem II	12	0	3	9	-29	3	Willem II won 0 of the last 5