PSV Eindhoven won 3 of the last 5WWDLW1st7–0Willem II won 0 of the last 5DLLLL18th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
PSV Eindhoven
Willem II
20
Shots
4
9
Shots on target
1
11
Corners
1
7
Fouls
4
0
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
0
3
Offsides
1
691
Passes
305
70%
Possession %
30%
2.77
xG
1.28
84%
1 · PSV EindhovenXWillem II · 2
Over 1.5
96%
Over 2.5
87%
Over 3.5
73%
Both score
67%
Model pick
PSV Eindhoven 84%
Likely score
3-1 7%
Expected goals
3.81 – 1.16
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
PSV Eindhoven
83.7%
1.20
1.09 Betano
91.7%
-8.1
Match result
Draw
9.7%
10.33
14.00 Betfair
7.1%
+2.5
Match result
Willem II
6.7%
15.03
32.00 Betano
3.1%
+3.5
Total goals
Over 1.5
96.0%
1.04
1.04 Betano
96.2%
-0.2
Total goals
Under 1.5
4.0%
25.01
17.00 Betfair
5.9%
-1.9
Total goals
Over 2.5
87.3%
1.15
1.16 Betano
86.2%
+1.1
Total goals
Under 2.5
12.7%
7.85
6.50 Betfair
15.4%
-2.6
Total goals
Over 3.5
73.0%
1.37
1.40 Bet365
71.4%
+1.6
Total goals
Under 3.5
27.0%
3.71
3.25 Bet365
30.8%
-3.8
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
67.2%
1.49
1.78 BetVictor
56.2%
+11.1
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
32.8%
3.05
2.20 Betfair
45.5%
-12.7
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
PSV Eindhoven favoured against Willem II
Our model makes PSV Eindhoven 84% to win this Eredivisie fixture, with the draw at 10% and Willem II at 7%. The goal projection is 3.81 for PSV Eindhoven against 1.16 for Willem II — a commanding edge to PSV Eindhoven on expected output. A combined 4.97 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 87% and both teams to score at 67%. The single most likely scoreline is 3-1 at 7%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. PSV Eindhoven is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 16% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
PSV Eindhoven
Metric
Willem II
1.20 (better)
Goals scored
1.00
1.20 (better)
Goals conceded
2.60
1.57 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.15
—
Big chances *
—
3.60 (better)
Shots on target
3.00
14.20 (better)
Total shots
11.20
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
5.20 (better)
Corners
3.20
55.8 (better)
Possession %
40.4
511 (better)
Passes
372
—
Tackles
—
12.20
Fouls
9.00 (better)
3.20
Offsides
2.33 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.60
Yellow cards
1.60
0.25
Red cards
0.00 (better)
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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PSV Eindhoven v 
Willem II