PEC Zwolle v 
ADO Den Haag
Match statistics
| PEC Zwolle | ADO Den Haag | |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 1 | Offsides | 2 |
| 268 | Passes | 531 |
| 34% | Possession % | 66% |
| 1.48 | xG | 0.52 |
- Over 1.5
- 86%
- Over 2.5
- 67%
- Over 3.5
- 45%
- Both score
- 67%
- Model pick
- ADO Den Haag 43%
- Likely score
- 1-1 10%
- Expected goals
- 1.60 – 1.82
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5ADO Den Haag
Why this price?
Back ADO Den Haag to win at 3.00 with Dafabet.
Our model puts the chance at 43% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 32%; we judge it at 37%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.74. The offered 3.00 implies only 33%, so the price is 9.7% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.21 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: PEC Zwolle 1.60, ADO Den Haag 1.82.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 67.5% | 1.48 | 1.53 Bet365 | 65.4% | +2.1 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 32.5% | 3.07 | 2.63 Betfair | 38.0% | -5.5 |
| Match result | PEC Zwolle | 33.8% | 2.96 | 2.30 Betano | 43.5% | -9.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 23.4% | 4.28 | 3.80 Betfair | 26.3% | -3.0 |
| Match result | ADO Den Haag | 42.8% | 2.33 | 3.05 Betano | 32.8% | +10.1 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 86.1% | 1.16 | 1.20 Betano | 83.3% | +2.8 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 13.9% | 7.19 | 5.50 Betfair | 18.2% | -4.3 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 66.6% | 1.50 | 1.62 Betano | 61.7% | +4.8 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 33.4% | 2.99 | 2.45 Betfair | 40.8% | -7.4 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 44.8% | 2.23 | 2.55 Betfair | 39.2% | +5.5 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 55.2% | 1.81 | 1.57 Betfair | 63.7% | -8.5 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
ADO Den Haag favoured against PEC Zwolle
Our model makes PEC Zwolle 34% to win this Eredivisie fixture, with the draw at 23% and ADO Den Haag at 43%. The goal projection is 1.60 for PEC Zwolle against 1.82 for ADO Den Haag — a slight edge to ADO Den Haag on expected output. A combined 3.43 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 67% and both teams to score at 67%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 10%
- 1-2 9%
- 2-1 8%
- 2-2 7%
- 0-1 5%
This season
| PEC Zwolle | ADO Den Haag | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Played | 12 |
| 3-3-6 | W-D-L | 2-3-7 |
| 1.00 | Pts / game | 0.75 |
| 1.08 | Goals for / game | 1.33 |
| 2.00 | Goals against / game | 2.08 |
| 50% | Over 2.5 | 67% |
| 50% | BTTS | 75% |
| 17% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 33% | Failed to score | 25% |
| 2-0-4 | Home record | 2-1-3 |
| 1-3-2 | Away record | 0-2-4 |
| D1 | Streak | W1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. PEC Zwolle · ADO Den Haag
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 16.2 | Shots | 13.4 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.4 | Shots on target | 4.6 |
| 5.4 | Corners | 3.6 |
| 1.60 | Cards | 2.00 |
| 10.8 | Fouls | 14.2 |
| 44 | Possession % | 51 |
| 1.22 | xG | 1.58 |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Conceded
| 15.8 | Shots | 20.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.6 | Shots on target | 4.8 |
| 4.4 | Corners | 5.8 |
| 1.80 | Cards | 1.20 |
| 10.4 | Fouls | 9.6 |
| 56 | Possession % | 49 |
| 1.32 | xG | 1.98 |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Form comparison
| PEC Zwolle | Metric | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 | Goals scored | 1.40 (better) |
| 2.80 | Goals conceded | 1.80 (better) |
| 0.90 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.96 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.00 (better) | Shots on target | 3.60 |
| 12.60 (better) | Total shots | 11.40 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.00 (better) | Corners | 2.60 |
| 43.4 | Possession % | 49.0 (better) |
| 381 | Passes | 410 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 10.80 (better) | Fouls | 16.00 |
| 1.67 (better) | Offsides | 2.00 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.40 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.00 |
| 0.00 (better) | Red cards | 0.25 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- PEC Zwolle wins
- 1
- Draws
- 0
- ADO Den Haag wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 1.00
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 0%
- PEC Zwolle v ADO Den Haag1–02026-11-01
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV Eindhoven | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | +25 | 26 | PSV Eindhoven won 3 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | +19 | 25 | Feyenoord won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Ajax | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | +17 | 25 | Ajax won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Twente | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | +18 | 24 | Twente won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | +8 | 23 | AZ Alkmaar won 1 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Heerenveen | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | +8 | 21 | Heerenveen won 4 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 20 | Fortuna Sittard won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | GO Ahead Eagles | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | -3 | 17 | GO Ahead Eagles won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Groningen | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | +1 | 15 | Groningen won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Cambuur | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 15 | Cambuur won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 14 | NEC Nijmegen won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 12 | Sparta Rotterdam won 2 of the last 5 |
| 13 | PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 12 | PEC Zwolle won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Utrecht | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -13 | 12 | Utrecht won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Excelsior | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 11 | Excelsior won 0 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Telstar | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -7 | 10 | Telstar won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 9 | ADO Den Haag won 2 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Willem II | 12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | -29 | 3 | Willem II won 0 of the last 5 |